15 skills · sorted by relevance
Develop Bayesian models for quantitative social science, from choosing priors to reporting posterior results. Guide MCMC, a sampling method for estimating distributions, check convergence, and assess sensitivity for hierarchical models and small datasets.
Build Bayesian models in PyMC to estimate effects and quantify uncertainty. Fit regression or hierarchical models, check sampling diagnostics, assess predictions against observed data, predict new groups, and compare models using predictive performance.
Build and evaluate Bayesian models with PyMC and ArviZ, from choosing initial assumptions to checking predictions. The workflow covers sampling diagnostics, model comparison, and reports that explain results with uncertainty intervals.
Build and check statistical models in PyMC while quantifying uncertainty. Supports hierarchical models that represent grouped data, sampling diagnostics, predictive checks, and model comparison, with templates and scripts for predictions and diagnostic reports.
シミュレーションと数理最適化（モンテカルロ / Monte Carlo / 離散事象シミュレーション / DES / 待ち行列 / リスク分析 / シナリオ分析、線形計画 / LP / 整数計画 / MIP / スケジューリング / 配送計画 / VRP / 割当 / メタヒューリスティクス）を 実行したら必ずセットで出す図と値のルーター。SeedSequence.spawn, scipy.stats の rvs, simpy, SALib, pulp, LpProblem, mip.Model, ortools, pywraplp, cp_model, pyomo, cvxpy, linprog, milp がコードに現れたとき、または ユーザーが「シミュレーションして」「モンテカルロで見積もって」「待ち時間をシミュレートして」「最適化して」 「最適な割当を求めて」「スケジュールを組んで」と言ったときに使う。収束・標準誤差・ソルバー status・制約違反・ 感度分析に言及がなくても適用する。SKILL.md のルーティング表で手法を特定し、対応する references/<手法>.md を 読んでから実行する。MCMC は statistical-inference-diagnostics、ML のハイパラ探索は predictive-modeling-diagnostics を使う。
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統計的推論（線形回帰 / 重回帰 / OLS / Lasso / Ridge / 分位点回帰、ロジスティック回帰 / ポアソン / GLM / オッズ比、 混合効果 / マルチレベル / パネル固定効果、仮説検定 / t 検定 / χ² / ANOVA / 有意差、生存時間分析 / Kaplan-Meier / Cox、 ベイズ推定 / MCMC / Stan）を実行したら必ずセットで出す図と値のルーター。sm.OLS, smf.ols, LinearRegression, LassoCV, QuantReg, sm.Logit, sm.GLM, LogisticRegression, mixedlm, PanelOLS, ttest_ind, mannwhitneyu, chi2_contingency, pingouin, lifelines, CoxPHFitter, cmdstanpy, arviz がコードに現れたとき、またはユーザーが「回帰して」「検定して」 「有意差はあるか」「生存曲線を描いて」「ベイズで推定して」と言ったときに使う。診断・残差・図に言及がなくても適用する。 SKILL.md のルーティング表で手法を特定し、対応する references/<手法>.md を読んでから実行する。A/B テスト・因果推論は causal-inference-diagnostics、予測 ML・時系列は predictive-modeling-diagnostics を使う。
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Bayesian parameter estimation with MCMC (emcee) and probabilistic programming (PyMC). Posterior distributions, corner plots, model evidence, convergence diagnostics. Use when you need full posterior distributions, not just point estimates.
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Bayesian modeling with PyMC. Build hierarchical models, MCMC (NUTS), variational inference, LOO/WAIC comparison, posterior checks, for probabilistic programming and inference.
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Analyze U.S. electoral district plans in R with redistverse. Guides data preparation, simulations under population and geographic constraints, diagnostic checks, and comparisons of district shape, partisan fairness, and administrative splits through maps and summary tables.
Estimate divergence times using molecular clock models with BEAST2, MCMCTree, and TreePL. Use when dating speciation events, calibrating phylogenies with fossils, choosing between strict and relaxed clock models, or estimating evolutionary rates across lineages.
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Run Bayesian phylogenetic analysis with MrBayes, BEAST2, RevBayes, and PhyloBayes including MCMC convergence diagnostics and model comparison. Use when needing posterior probability support, Bayesian model averaging, site-heterogeneous models for deep phylogenies, or formal model comparison via stepping-stone sampling.
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Design and implement Monte Carlo methods for uncertainty quantification, risk analysis, and probabilistic simulations across scientific and financial domains. Use when "monte carlo, random sampling, uncertainty quantification, risk analysis, stochastic simulation, MCMC, variance reduction, probabilistic, " mentioned.
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Formal oracle for abductive inference that selects the minimal hypothesis best explaining a set of observations. Provides three sub-oracles: MCMC via monad-bayes, Gemini for natural language, and propagator networks for constraint domains. Use when performing hypothesis selection, explaining observations, or solving inference-to-best-explanation problems.
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Retroductive hypothesis sampling via MCMC: given observations, importance-sample explanations weighted by P(observation|hypothesis) using Gay.jl colored particles as hypothesis candidates.
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Redistricting analysis in R using the redistverse ecosystem. Use whenever the user is working with redist, redistmetrics, ggredist, geomander, adj, alarmdata, PL94171, censable, easycensus, tinytiger, baf, rict, or redistio. Covers the complete pipeline: Census and spatial data loading, adjacency graph construction, SMC/MCMC simulation, constraints (population balance, county splits, VRA compliance), convergence diagnostics, plan metrics (compactness, partisan fairness, splits), visualization, summary tables, and interactive plan drawing. Invoke whenever the user mentions redistricting, gerrymandering, district plans, simulation ensembles, or any redistverse package by name.
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