Quick Summary

Goal: Analyze a market landscape and deliver an evidence-backed market-analysis artifact—competitors, TAM/SAM/SOM, trends, SWOT, and customer segments—that downstream skills can consume as evidence.

Summary:

• Purpose: Produce evidence-backed market landscape analysis for business-evaluation and strategy-builder, not unsupported opinion.
• Evidence base first: When the run has a research evidence base from web-research --chain=deep-dive (_evidence-{slug}.md + _sources-{slug}.md), read it before any search and cite it; search only its named gaps, at most 5 searches. Every market figure (TAM/SAM/SOM, growth, share) rests on 2+ independent sources.
• Ordered path: Classify and clarify scope; then (1) research 5-10 competitors, (2) size TAM/SAM/SOM, (3) analyze growth, disruption, regulation, and behavior trends, (4) evidence-link SWOT, and (5) segment customers by demographics, psychographics, behavior, and jobs-to-be-done.
• Evidence gate: Prefer Tier 1-2 sizing sources; every factual claim, number, table row, and inference ends [N] mapped to Sources or N/A — {reason}; every size claim cites source/year/methodology; never invent source metadata; SWOT requires evidence.
• Handoff: Use the enforced template; workflow-research business-eval/marketing uses parent ARTIFACT_SLUG + MARKET_ANALYSIS_PATH exactly; otherwise use the fallback path; return the exact written path and copy the plan-dir path when required.

Workflow:

1. Define scope — Industry, geography, segment, timeframe
2. Research competitors — Players, positioning, strengths/weaknesses from the evidence base; WebSearch only its named gaps
3. Size market — TAM/SAM/SOM from industry reports
4. Identify trends — Growth drivers, disruptions, regulatory changes
5. SWOT analysis — Synthesize Strengths/Weaknesses/Opportunities/Threats
6. Segment customers — Demographics, psychographics, jobs-to-be-done

Key Rules:

• Prefer Tier 1-2 sources for market sizing
• Read the research evidence base first when one exists and cite it; never re-derive what it establishes. Search only its named gaps: at most 5 WebSearch calls and 5 WebFetch calls. With no evidence base, stay within the web-research budget (at most 10 searches, then at most 8 fetches)
• Every market figure (TAM/SAM/SOM, growth rate, market share) rests on 2+ independent sources; mark a single-source figure single source, unverified and hold it below 60% confidence
• Every factual claim, number, table row, and inference must end with an inline [N] citation that maps to one Sources row; use N/A — {reason} when evidence is unavailable
• Cite source + methodology for every market-size claim
• Sources table must provide Title, URL, Author/Publisher, Date, and Tier for every source; never invent missing metadata
• Link SWOT items to evidence; no speculation
• Risk profile: analysis. Fresh-eyes review, specialist routing, inline sub-agent protocols, and recursive quality loops: N/A — this skill does not delegate or own fix convergence.

Be skeptical. Apply critical thinking, sequential thinking. Every claim needs traced proof, confidence percentages (Idea should be more than 80%).

Contents

• Quick Summary
• Market Analysis
• Precondition: Classify Inputs
• Step 1: Define Market Scope
• Step 2: Competitive Research
• Step 3: Market Sizing
• Step 4: Trend Analysis
• Step 5: SWOT Analysis
• Step 6: Customer Segmentation
• Output
• Closing Reminders

Market Analysis

Precondition: Classify Inputs

Before research, classify scope and available evidence as present, missing, or ambiguous; clarify missing or ambiguous industry, geography, timeframe, and focus with user.

Load the research evidence base first. When web-research --chain=deep-dive (or web-research followed by source-deep-dive) ran for this topic, read its evidence base tmp/research/_evidence-{slug}.md and source map tmp/research/_sources-{slug}.md before any search. Use the exact paths that research step returned, or a path the user supplies; never guess a slug. Build Steps 2-6 from it and carry its sources into the Sources table with their Title, URL, Author/Publisher, Date and Tier; do not re-search what it already establishes. List what Steps 2-6 still need that it lacks (its ## Gaps Remaining, a missing competitor, a sizing report) and search only those named gaps: at most 5 WebSearch calls and 5 WebFetch calls. With no evidence base, research under the web-research budget: at most 10 searches, then at most 8 fetches.

Cross-validate every market figure. Each TAM/SAM/SOM value, growth rate and market share rests on 2+ independent sources, the same rule the research step applies; sources that copy one original study count once. A single-source figure is marked single source, unverified and held below 60% confidence; conflicting figures are shown side by side with the one you weight and why.

Analysis lens: For each step, run one focused Think: pass: what evidence supports, limits, or falsifies each finding?

Step 1: Define Market Scope

Confirm scope with user:

• Industry/vertical — Market segment?
• Geography — Global, regional, or local?
• Timeframe — Current state or 3-year projection?
• Focus — B2B, B2C, or both?

Step 2: Competitive Research

For each competitor (identify 5-10):

Field	Source
Company name	Evidence base, then WebSearch for gaps
Positioning/tagline	Company website
Key products	Product pages
Pricing model	Pricing page or reports
Strengths	Reviews, analyst reports
Weaknesses	Reviews, customer complaints
Market share (if available)	Industry reports

Step 3: Market Sizing

Use Tier 1-2 sources (Gartner, Statista, IBISWorld, government data):

• TAM (Total Addressable Market) — Maximum possible revenue at 100% market share
• SAM (Serviceable Addressable Market) — Accessible portion given constraints
• SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market) — Realistic 3-year capture

Every number must cite source, year, methodology.

Cross-validate each figure against a second independent source (see the precondition); a figure with one source stays single source, unverified, below 60% confidence.

Step 4: Trend Analysis

Research and categorize:

• Growth drivers — Forces fueling market growth
• Disruptions — Technology shifts, new entrants, business-model innovations
• Regulatory — New laws, compliance requirements, policy changes
• Consumer behavior — Preference changes, demographic shifts

Step 5: SWOT Analysis

Each item must link to evidence:

Category	Item	Evidence
Strength	{item}	Source [N]
Weakness	{item}	Source [N]
Opportunity	{item}	Source [N]
Threat	{item}	Source [N]

Step 6: Customer Segmentation

For each segment:

• Demographics — Age, role, income, company size
• Psychographics — Values, pain points, aspirations
• Behavior — Buying patterns, media consumption
• Jobs-to-be-Done — Desired accomplishment

Output

MANDATORY IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION Write the result via enforced .claude/templates/market-analysis-template.md to parent-provided MARKET_ANALYSIS_PATH when present; otherwise use docs/knowledge/strategy/market-analysis/{descriptive-slug}.md — why: downstream skills consume this as EVIDENCE; an informal or inline handoff without deterministic location and known shape fails silently, leaving consumers nothing to cite.

When invoked by workflow-research in business-eval or marketing mode, use parent-provided ARTIFACT_SLUG and MARKET_ANALYSIS_PATH exactly; do not derive a new slug. Return the exact written path in the completion handoff so the next skill can verify it before reading.

Consumed by:

• business-evaluation skill (business viability) — reads Sizing, Competitors, Trends, SWOT, Segments
• strategy-builder skill (marketing strategy)

When invoked inside a workflow that also writes to a plan directory, copy the file to {plan-dir}/research/market-analysis.md so the plan artifact set stays self-contained.

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[IMPORTANT] Use TaskCreate to break ALL work into small tasks BEFORE starting.

Closing Reminders

IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION Goal: Analyze a market landscape and deliver an evidence-backed market-analysis artifact—competitors, TAM/SAM/SOM, trends, SWOT, and customer segments—that downstream skills can consume as evidence.

IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION Main path: Classify and clarify scope/evidence; then run in order: (1) research 5-10 competitors, (2) size TAM/SAM/SOM, (3) analyze growth, disruption, regulation, and behavior trends, (4) evidence-link SWOT, and (5) segment customers by demographics, psychographics, behavior, and jobs-to-be-done. Write via the enforced template and complete the exact handoff path. NEVER skip, reorder, or merge steps. IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION Modes/gates: In workflow-research business-eval/marketing, use parent ARTIFACT_SLUG + MARKET_ANALYSIS_PATH exactly; otherwise use the fallback path; return the exact written path; copy the plan-dir artifact when required. Prefer Tier 1-2 sizing sources; every factual claim, number, table row, and inference ends [N] mapped to Sources or N/A — {reason}; cite size source/year/methodology; never invent metadata; link every SWOT item to evidence. IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION Evidence base: read this run's _evidence-{slug}.md + _sources-{slug}.md first when they exist and cite them; search only named gaps (at most 5 searches, 5 fetches; no evidence base → at most 10 searches, 8 fetches); every TAM/SAM/SOM, growth and share figure needs 2+ independent sources, else single source, unverified below 60%. IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION Apply critical/sequential thinking; run one focused Think: pass per step; cite source evidence and confidence; preserve uncertainty; never present unsupported findings as fact. IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION Create TaskCreate todos before starting; keep one in_progress, mark each completed with evidence, and add a final review todo. If task tools are unavailable, maintain equivalent synchronized statuses.

Anti-Rationalization:

Evasion	Rebuttal
"Market size is obvious; source later."	Cite source, year, and methodology now; use N/A — {reason} when unavailable.
"One competitor or source is enough."	Research 5-10 competitors; prefer Tier 1-2 sources and preserve metadata.
"A fresh search is faster than reading the evidence base."	Read the evidence base first and cite it; search only its named gaps, within the cap.
"One report gives the market size."	Cross-validate with a second independent source, or mark the figure single source, unverified below 60%.
"SWOT is just judgment."	Link every item to evidence; label unavailable support N/A — {reason}.
"Output path is optional."	Use the enforced template/path contract, return the exact written path, and copy the plan-dir artifact when required.

IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION verify all claims, numbers, source metadata, and handoff paths before completion; NEVER guess, skip evidence, or weaken the output contract.