expansion-playbook

When to use

• Net Revenue Retention plateaued and the team cannot name which expansion lever drives it — upsell, cross-sell, and seat-expansion get conflated under "NRR" and the moves are uniform when they should be lever-specific.
• An expansion play is firing on usage signals alone — accounts using more seats are treated as expansion targets without checking the upstream pain that earned the expansion.
• A new pricing or packaging change is live and the team needs to re-key the expansion triggers to the new shape before the old triggers misfire.

Do NOT use to save churning accounts (route to churn-prevention), design days 0–30 onboarding (route to onboarding-design), or build product-led seat-expansion loops unattended by a human play (route to retention-loops).

Cognition cluster

• Mental model 18 — Pull vs. push. Expansion that the buyer pulls (because pain or scope grew) compounds; expansion the vendor pushes (because the quarter needs the number) corrodes the relationship and inflates churn the next cycle. Pick the trigger that signals pull. See docs/contracts/mental-models.md § 18.
• Mental model 9 — Hypothesis-driven thinking. Each expansion trigger is a hypothesis: "if signal X is true, the buyer will accept expansion Y at price Z." Triggers without falsification evidence are wishes; if a trigger has misfired three times, the trigger is wrong, not the buyer. See mental-models.md § 9.
• Mental model 3 — Pareto (80/20). ~20 % of accounts carry ~80 % of expansion potential. Uniform expansion outreach across the book is noise; weighted outreach by pull-signal strength is reasoning. See mental-models.md § 3.
• Context-spine — product + customer-segment. Read the product slot for which capabilities the segment can absorb next (sequencing matters — a cross-sell into a feature the segment cannot use yet inflates churn), and the customer-segment slot for switch-event patterns that signal organic scope expansion. See context-spine.

Procedure

Step 0: Inspect — separate upsell, cross-sell, seat-expansion

Inspect the trailing four quarters of expansion $ and decompose:

1. Upsell — same product family, higher tier (more seats at same SKU, premium tier of same SKU).
2. Cross-sell — different product family or SKU.
3. Seat-expansion — same SKU, more users, no tier change.

Compute each lever's $ contribution and NRR contribution. A book treating these as one number cannot diagnose which lever is broken.

Step 1: Define one expansion trigger per lever, pull-signalled

Each trigger is a buyer-side pull signal with falsifiable evidence:

1. Upsell trigger — buyer crosses tier-defining usage ceiling (e.g. seats > X, or feature-X-usage > Y) sustained for ≥ 30 days.
2. Cross-sell trigger — buyer requests a capability that lives in an adjacent SKU twice in 60 days, by two different contacts, in writing.
3. Seat-expansion trigger — admin invites N new users in a rolling 30-day window AND health-score (from churn-prevention) is green.

Triggers that misfire three times in a quarter become Step 0 diagnoses next quarter; do not patch them inside the quarter.

Step 2: Map lever → play

Each lever gets one default play and one disqualifier:

• Upsell — quarterly business review surfacing the usage ceiling; tier-upgrade proposal with proof-of-value. Disqualifier: account on red health score (route to churn-prevention).
• Cross-sell — capability-fit discovery call with sponsor + user; pilot before contract change. Disqualifier: cross-sell SKU not GA for the segment.
• Seat-expansion — admin co-pilot session + group onboarding for new seats. Disqualifier: utilisation on existing seats < 40 % (you would be selling decay).

Step 3: Sequence multi-lever opportunities

If two triggers fire on the same account in the same quarter: sequence upsell before cross-sell (compound the contract the buyer already believes in) before seat-expansion (the most fragile lever — easiest to inflate, easiest to lose). Two plays fired in parallel signal vendor-push and corrode the relationship.

Step 4: Compute NRR by lever and verify against the dilution check

NRR = (start-ARR + expansion − churn − contraction) ÷ start-ARR, per cohort. Decompose expansion into the three levers. Verify each trigger's pull-signal is intact: confirm the buyer-side artefact (usage ceiling crossed, written request, admin invite) exists in instrumentation; a lever whose triggers cannot be verified against artefacts is push-expansion mislabelled as pull, and the next cycle's churn will return the revenue. A book hitting 115 % NRR via seat-expansion only is more fragile than a book hitting 110 % via upsell + cross-sell — fragility shows up in the next cycle's churn, not this one's revenue line.

Step 5: Hand back

Hand the lever decomposition, the three pull-signalled triggers, and the per-lever play to CS / AM operations and to forecast-accuracy for the expansion side of the forecast call. NRR work without lever separation is spending in random directions.

Related Skills

WHEN to use this

• Decomposing NRR into upsell · cross-sell · seat-expansion levers.
• Defining pull-signalled triggers and per-lever plays.

WHEN NOT to use this

• Saving accounts likely to churn — route to churn-prevention.
• Designing days 0–30 onboarding milestones — route to onboarding-design.
• Product-led, vendor-unattended seat growth loops — route to retention-loops.

When the agent should load this

• "Lift our NRR — which lever?"
• "When do we cross-sell vs upsell account X?"
• "Why does our expansion churn back inside the next cycle?"
• "Welcher Expansion-Trigger ist eigentlich pull, nicht push?"

Output

1. lever-decomposition.md — trailing-quarter expansion $ split into upsell · cross-sell · seat-expansion with NRR contribution per lever.
2. expansion-triggers.md — one pull-signalled trigger per lever · falsifiable evidence · misfire counter.
3. lever-play-map.md — per-lever default play · disqualifier · sequencing rule for multi-trigger accounts.

Gotcha

• A trigger that fires on usage alone, without separating pain growth from consumption growth, will push when it should pull. Push-expansion lifts this quarter and depresses the next.
• Seat-expansion looks like the easiest lever and is the most fragile — easy to inflate by selling seats into accounts whose existing seats are under-utilised; the contraction lands one cycle later.
• "Strategic" cross-sell into a capability the segment is not yet ready to use buys revenue and pays for it in churn — segment-readiness is the gate, not vendor-side ambition.

Do NOT

• Do NOT fire multiple expansion plays in parallel on one account; sequence per Step 3.
• Do NOT count seat-expansion at < 40 % existing-seat utilisation as expansion; it is selling decay.
• Do NOT chase NRR target without lever decomposition; the headline number can be hit by the most fragile lever.

Runnable example

Mid-market SaaS, NRR 112 % last quarter, churn ticked up this quarter.

• Lever decomposition — upsell 35 %, cross-sell 18 %, seat-expansion 47 % of expansion $. Seat-expansion-led growth flagged as fragile.
• Triggers — (1) upsell trigger: seats > 50 sustained 30+ days (band 28–42 % conversion). (2) cross-sell: capability request twice in 60 days from two contacts (band 41–61 % conversion). (3) seat-expansion: admin invites ≥ 10 new users in 30 days AND green health (band 52–68 % conversion); misfire count for the quarter: 4 — trigger flagged for Step 0 re-diagnosis next quarter.
• Lever-play map — upsell QBR + tier proposal, disqualified for 3 red-health accounts; cross-sell pilot blocked for 2 accounts where SKU not yet GA-ready for mid-market.
• Hand-off — decomposition + triggers → CS / AM ops; sequencing rule live; expansion side of forecast-accuracy rebuilt on lever-weighted historical close rates.