onboarding-design

When to use

• New accounts churn inside their first 30 days and the team cannot name which onboarding milestone they failed to reach — drop-off is treated as a single number, not a stage-by-stage signal.
• A new segment is being onboarded against an onboarding flow built for a previous segment — the milestones likely do not match the new segment's switch-event shape.
• Time-to-first-value is "days, maybe weeks" — the answer needs to be a number with a falsifiable definition, not a sentiment.

Do NOT use to onboard employees (that is the Wing-4 employee-onboarding program — different audience, different contract), diagnose long-cycle churn (route to churn-prevention), or run the full visitor → paid funnel (route to funnel-analysis).

Cognition cluster

• Mental model 14 — Meadows leverage points. Onboarding is a high-leverage system: a change in the milestone definition reshapes retention more than a change in the welcome email. Pick the leverage point — milestone definition over surface polish. See docs/contracts/mental-models.md § 14.
• Mental model 16 — Leading vs. lagging indicators. Time-to-first-value and milestone-completion are leading; D30 retention is lagging. Onboarding decisions built on lagging signals can only confirm churn after it lands. See mental-models.md § 16.
• Mental model 13 — Occam's razor. When new accounts drop off, the simpler explanation usually wins: "the first milestone is too far from the buyer's job to complete in one session" beats "users do not understand our value proposition." Pick the simpler explanation; it changes the move. See mental-models.md § 13.
• Context-spine — product + customer-segment + funnel-stage. Read the product slot for what the segment can actually configure unattended, the customer-segment slot for the segment's job and switch-event, and the funnel-stage slot for where activation sits relative to signup and paid. See context-spine.

Procedure

Step 0: Inspect — pull the current onboarding shape

Inspect the actual funnel: signup → milestone-1 → milestone-2 → activation → D30. For each transition pull conversion rate (with band) and median time-to-transition for the last two cohorts. Inspect whether the activation event correlates with paid retention; if not, the activation event is mis-defined and Step 2 fixes it.

Step 1: Define time-to-first-value with a falsifiable definition

Write the sentence: "<Segment> reaches first value when <observable buyer action> happens, by <target hours / days> after signup." The action must be observable in instrumentation, must correlate with paid retention (Step 0 inspection), and must be something the buyer accomplishes — not something the product displays.

Step 2: Design three milestones earning activation

Each milestone is a buyer action with a definition, a friction audit, and a default outcome.

1. Milestone definition — one sentence in buyer-action form ("buyer has imported one record", not "buyer has seen the import screen").
2. Friction audit — name the three highest-friction steps the buyer must clear; each gets a cheapest-fix hypothesis.
3. Default outcome — if the buyer does nothing, what does the product do for them? A milestone with no default is a milestone the busy half of the segment will miss.

Step 3: Audit friction at each milestone

For each milestone, time the buyer journey: clicks, fields, decision points, wait states. Tag each as blocker (cannot proceed without it), toll (proceed but slow), or fog (buyer unsure what to do next). Fog kills more onboarding than blockers — fog is silent.

Step 4: Diagnose drop-off by segment × milestone

The drop-off is rarely uniform. Segment by segment × milestone; the cell with the steepest below-band drop is the binding fix. Two cells dropping at once usually means a shared upstream cause (account-provisioning failure, ICP mismatch) — fix upstream, not in the milestone.

Step 5: Hand back

Hand the time-to-first-value definition, the three milestones with friction audits, and the segment × milestone drop-off table to the implementing team and to churn-prevention for downstream health-score signal definition. Onboarding owns days 0–30; churn-prevention owns the signals after.

Related Skills

WHEN to use this

• Designing or auditing days 0–30 of the customer lifecycle.
• Defining time-to-first-value as a falsifiable event, not a sentiment.

WHEN NOT to use this

• Long-cycle churn diagnosis (D60+) — route to churn-prevention.
• Account expansion or upsell mechanics — route to expansion-playbook.
• Full visitor → paid funnel diagnosis — route to funnel-analysis.
• Activation-event redefinition or aha-moment selection — route to activation-design.

When the agent should load this

• "Fix our onboarding — new accounts churn fast."
• "Why does cohort-9 drop at milestone-2?"
• "Define time-to-first-value for the mid-market segment."
• "Wie viele Klicks bis zum ersten Wert?"

Output

1. time-to-first-value.md — falsifiable definition: segment × observable action × target time × correlation with paid retention.
2. milestones.md — three milestones, each with definition · friction audit (blocker / toll / fog) · default outcome.
3. dropoff-table.md — segment × milestone conversion rates with bands; binding-fix cell flagged.

Gotcha

• An activation event that does not correlate with paid retention is a vanity event. The funnel will look healthy and D30 will keep dropping.
• "Onboarding emails" is not onboarding design. Emails are a surface; milestones are the system. Designing emails before milestones is rearranging deck chairs.
• A milestone without a default outcome assumes the buyer drives the journey. Half of every segment will not — design for the half that will not.

Do NOT

• Do NOT use industry-average onboarding benchmarks as targets; segment shape and product complexity dominate them.
• Do NOT confuse signup with activation; signup is consent, activation is value.
• Do NOT redesign milestones one at a time mid-cycle without an A/B holdout — concurrent changes destroy the signal.

Runnable example

B2B mid-market analytics tool, D30 retention sagging from 71 % to 58 % over two quarters.

• Time-to-first-value — "Mid-market: buyer reaches first value when one connected data source returns one rendered dashboard, within 24 hours of signup." Correlation with D90 paid retention: r = 0.62.
• Milestones — (1) connect data source (friction: OAuth scope confusion = fog; default: paste-CSV fallback). (2) save first query (friction: schema picker = toll; default: starter-template per segment). (3) share dashboard with one teammate (friction: invite-flow buried = blocker; default: auto-invite admin).
• Drop-off table — Mid-Market × milestone-1: 41 % conv (band 35–47, vs trailing-cohort median 62 %). Binding fix: OAuth fog at milestone-1.
• Hand-off — milestones + drop-off → eng team for OAuth-fog fix; churn-prevention picks up D30+ health-score signals.