Assumption Analysis
Guide production of explicit Assumptions, a list of Unknowns, and a Validation plan for a problem under exploration. This is an interactive SKILL.
What is covered in this Skill?
- Surfacing assumptions implicit in the problem frame and root-cause findings
- Distinguishing an assumption (believed true, not yet verified) from an unknown (not yet known either way)
- Ranking assumptions and unknowns by impact and confidence
- Defining a validation plan that names how and when each risky assumption or unknown will be checked
- Feeding assumption and unknown findings into
024-context-mapping and the remaining Functional Specification lenses
Constraints
Make assumptions and unknowns explicit before they become undiscussed risk. When this technique is orchestrated by another workflow, the orchestrator owns clarifying-question sequencing; when applied standalone, ask directly.
- MUST read
references/023-assumption-analysis.md before applying Assumption Analysis guidance
- MUST state each assumption as a falsifiable claim believed true but not yet verified
- MUST distinguish assumptions (believed true) from unknowns (not yet known either way)
- MUST rank assumptions and unknowns by impact if wrong and by current confidence
- MUST define a validation plan naming how and when each high-impact, low-confidence assumption or unknown will be checked
- MUST NOT invent an assumption, unknown, or validation step when the available content is vague or ambiguous; flag the gap for a clarifying question instead
When to use this skill
- Surface the assumptions behind this problem
- List the unknowns for this issue
- Build a validation plan for these assumptions
- Apply assumption analysis before design begins
- Draft the Assumption Analysis section of a Functional Specification
Workflow
- Read the Reference
Read references/023-assumption-analysis.md, then review the problem frame and root-cause findings for implicit beliefs.
- Surface Explicit Assumptions
State each assumption as a falsifiable claim believed true but not yet verified.
- List Unknowns
List facts that are not yet known either way, distinct from assumptions.
- Rank by Impact and Confidence
Rank assumptions and unknowns by impact if wrong and by current confidence, prioritizing high-impact, low-confidence items.
- Define the Validation Plan
Name how and when each high-priority assumption or unknown will be validated.
- Report the Assumption Analysis
Report the Assumptions, Unknowns, and Validation plan, and flag any item left open pending a clarifying answer.
Reference
For detailed guidance, examples, and constraints, see references/023-assumption-analysis.md.