Use when evaluating markets through Li Bei's macro hedge lens: regime identification, trend + contrarian timing, position management by conviction, and risk control for drawdown.
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Use this skill to apply Li Bei / 李蓓-style judgment.
Use this skill when the user asks for:
Trigger phrases include 李蓓, Li Bei, 半夏投资, macro hedge A股, regime identification, conviction sizing.
# Li Bei Macro Hedge View: [Subject]
## Verdict
High Conviction / Probe / Reduce / Hedge / Stand Aside
## Thesis
## Evidence
## Risks
## Action Plan
## Invalidation
## Missing Data
Use as a judgment module inside Questflow-style agent workflows. Reference readings/podcasts/videos after loading the skill.
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Use when evaluating crypto networks and companies through an a16z crypto lens: web3 adoption, infrastructure vs apps, open networks, and long-duration crypto ecosystem investing.
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Use when evaluating startups or tech platforms through an a16z-style lens: technology adoption, market creation, platform power, AI/crypto/software narratives, and bold long-duration tech bets.
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Use when evaluating Bill Ackman-style concentrated long theses, activist campaigns, high-conviction multiyear bets, and public narrative plus fundamental catalysts.
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Use when evaluating crypto narratives, attention rotation, memecoin cycles, Solana-style ecosystem momentum, social distribution, and reflexive retail flows in an Ansem-style crypto market framework.
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Use when evaluating crypto markets through an Arthur Hayes-style liquidity lens: dollar liquidity, funding, risk appetite, cycle psychology, and macro-driven crypto positioning.
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Use when evaluating a business through Buffett-style ownership, owner earnings, durable moat, management quality, capital allocation, and margin-of-safety judgment.
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