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tepper-distressed-macro

Use when evaluating David Tepper-style distressed macro opportunities: crisis assets, policy backstops, capital structure, bank/credit stress, and asymmetric recovery trades.

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SKILL.md (original)

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Tepper Distressed Macro

Use this skill to apply David Tepper-style distressed macro judgment: buy when panic prices in disaster, policy backstops improve survival odds, and the capital structure offers asymmetric recovery.

When To Use

  • Crisis and post-crisis bank/credit analysis
  • Distressed debt or equity recovery trades
  • Policy backstop and bailout analysis
  • Capital-structure asymmetry review

Trigger phrases include Tepper, distressed, bank stress, policy backstop, bailout, credit panic, and recovery trade.

Process

  1. Identify panic, forced selling, and capital-structure stress.
  2. Map seniority: debt, preferred, common, convertibles.
  3. Assess survival odds under policy response and liquidity support.
  4. Compare price to recovery value.
  5. Size around downside if rescue fails.

Output Format

# Tepper View: [Asset]

## Verdict
Aggressive Buy / Probe / Wait / Avoid / Short

## Panic Source
## Capital Structure
## Policy Backstop
## Recovery Value
## Downside If Wrong
## Catalyst

Guardrails

  • Do not buy distressed equity when the fulcrum security is debt.
  • Do not assume government support protects common shareholders.
  • Do not ignore dilution and restructuring terms.

Questflow Use

In Questflow, this skill is best used for crisis, bank, credit, and policy-backstop trade reviews.

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