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trader-risk

Assess investment risk from supplied daily returns, summarize potential losses and drawdowns, estimate position sizes from backtest results, and review trading halt conditions. Save the assessment for later reference, with assumptions clearly stated.

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Assess portfolio risk using npx neural-trader — VaR, CVaR, Sharpe, position sizing, circuit breaker status

See how to install

Good for

  • Assess portfolio risk using historical daily returns
  • Estimate position sizes from backtest results
  • Review loss limits and concentration thresholds
  • Save risk assessments for later reference

Files included (1)

  • SKILL.md1.9 KB

SKILL.md (original)

Review the instructions the agent will receive before you install.

Assess portfolio and position risk using neural-trader's risk engine.

Steps:

  1. Ensure neural-trader is available: npm ls neural-trader 2>/dev/null || npm install --ignore-scripts neural-trader
  2. Run risk assessment:
    # VaR, CVaR and drawdown from a returns series YOU supply (daily returns as decimals)
    npx neural-trader --risk assess --returns 0.01,-0.005,0.012,-0.02 --portfolio-value 100000 --confidence-level 0.95 --method historical
    
    --risk assess computes from --returns only. --symbol and --portfolio are ignored, and with no --returns it uses a built-in 7-value sample (inputs.returnsCount: 7), which is a demo, not a risk read on anything. Derive the returns from real bars first (a --backtest --live run with dataSource: "yahoo-finance", or the user's own history). --var, --correlation, --risk-tolerance and --position-sizing as standalone flags are rejected by the CLI ("Unknown command").
  3. Position sizing: Kelly sizing exists only inside a backtest (--backtest ... --position-sizing kelly). For a standalone figure, compute it from the win rate and payoff in the backtest output and state the assumptions; do not present it as an instruction to trade.
  4. Check circuit breaker status:
    • Daily loss limit (3%), weekly loss limit (5%)
    • Correlation spike (>0.85), volatility regime (VIX > 2x)
    • Max positions, single-name concentration (>10%)
  5. Present: risk metrics, position sizing recommendation, active breakers, alerts
  6. Store assessment: mcp__plugin_ruflo-core_ruflo__memory_store({ key: "risk-TICKER-DATE", value: "RISK_METRICS", namespace: "trading-risk" })

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