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model-update

Update financial models after earnings, new company guidance, or changes in assumptions. Revise forecasts, recalculate valuation and price targets, and summarize significant changes with their reasons and implications for the investment view.

한국어 요약은 준비 중입니다. 영어 요약을 표시하고 있습니다.

원문원문 설명 보기

Update financial models with new data — quarterly earnings, management guidance, macro changes, or revised assumptions. Adjusts estimates, recalculates valuation, and flags material changes. Use after earnings, guidance updates, or when assumptions need refreshing. Triggers on "update model", "plug earnings", "refresh estimates", "update numbers for [company]", "new guidance", or "revise estimates".

anthropics/financial-services
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이럴 때 유용합니다

  • Updating a financial model after quarterly earnings
  • Revising forecasts after changes in company guidance
  • Reflecting interest rate and currency changes in valuation
  • Documenting estimate revisions and price target changes

포함된 파일(1)

  • SKILL.md3.3 KB

SKILL.md(원문)

설치하기 전에 에이전트에게 전달되는 지시 내용을 확인할 수 있습니다.

Model Update

Workflow

Step 1: Identify What Changed

Determine the update trigger:

  • Earnings release: New quarterly actuals to plug in
  • Guidance change: Company updated forward outlook
  • Estimate revision: Analyst changing assumptions based on new data
  • Macro update: Interest rates, FX, commodity prices changed
  • Event-driven: M&A, restructuring, new product, management change

Step 2: Plug New Data

After Earnings

Update the model with reported actuals:

Line ItemPrior EstimateActualDeltaNotes
Revenue
Gross Margin
Operating Expenses
EBITDA
EPS
[Key metric 1]
[Key metric 2]

Segment Detail (if applicable):

  • Update each segment's revenue and margin
  • Note any segment mix shifts

Balance Sheet / Cash Flow Updates:

  • Cash and debt balances
  • Share count (buybacks, dilution)
  • Capex actual vs. estimate
  • Working capital changes

Step 3: Revise Forward Estimates

Based on the new data, adjust forward estimates:

Old FY EstNew FY EstChangeOld Next FYNew Next FYChange
Revenue
EBITDA
EPS

Key Assumption Changes:

  • What assumptions are you changing and why?
  • Revenue growth rate: old → new (reason)
  • Margin assumption: old → new (reason)
  • Any new items (restructuring charges, one-time gains, etc.)

Step 4: Valuation Impact

Recalculate valuation with updated estimates:

Valuation MethodPriorUpdatedChange
DCF fair value
P/E (NTM EPS × target multiple)
EV/EBITDA (NTM EBITDA × target multiple)
Price Target

Step 5: Summary & Action

Estimate Change Summary:

  • One paragraph: what changed, why, and what it means for the stock
  • Is this a thesis-changing event or noise?

Rating / Price Target:

  • Maintain or change rating?
  • New price target (if changed) with methodology
  • Upside/downside to current price

Step 6: Output

  • Updated Excel model (if user provides the existing model)
  • Estimate change summary (markdown or Word)
  • Updated price target derivation

Important Notes

  • Always reconcile your estimates to the company's reported figures before projecting forward
  • Note any non-recurring items and whether your estimates are GAAP or adjusted
  • Track your estimate revision history — it shows your analytical progression
  • If the quarter was noisy, separate signal from noise in your estimate changes
  • Check consensus after updating — how do your revised estimates compare to the Street?
  • Share count matters — dilution from stock comp, converts, or buybacks can materially affect EPS

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