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cccskills
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thesis-tracker

Maintain the reasoning behind portfolio holdings and watchlist companies. Record new developments, assess whether they support or weaken each argument, and produce an updated scorecard with confidence levels, upcoming events, and possible position changes.

한국어 요약은 준비 중입니다. 영어 요약을 표시하고 있습니다.

원문원문 설명 보기

Maintain and update investment theses for portfolio positions and watchlist names. Track key data points, catalysts, and thesis milestones over time. Use when updating a thesis with new information, reviewing position rationale, or checking if a thesis is still intact. Triggers on "update thesis for [company]", "is my thesis still intact", "thesis check", "add data point to [company]", or "review my positions".

anthropics/financial-services
설치 방법 보기

이럴 때 유용합니다

  • Recording the rationale for a new investment
  • Updating an investment thesis after earnings or news
  • Reviewing arguments that support or challenge a holding
  • Preparing thesis updates for portfolio review meetings

포함된 파일(1)

  • SKILL.md2.7 KB

SKILL.md(원문)

설치하기 전에 에이전트에게 전달되는 지시 내용을 확인할 수 있습니다.

Thesis Tracker

Workflow

Step 1: Define or Load Thesis

If creating a new thesis:

  • Company: Name and ticker
  • Position: Long or Short
  • Thesis statement: 1-2 sentence core thesis (e.g., "Long ACME — margin expansion from pricing power + operating leverage as mix shifts to software")
  • Key pillars: 3-5 supporting arguments
  • Key risks: 3-5 risks that would invalidate the thesis
  • Catalysts: Upcoming events that could prove/disprove the thesis (earnings, product launches, regulatory decisions)
  • Target price / valuation: What's it worth if the thesis plays out
  • Stop-loss trigger: What would make you exit

If updating an existing thesis, ask the user for the new data point or development.

Step 2: Update Log

For each new data point or development:

  • Date: When this happened
  • Data point: What changed (earnings beat, management departure, competitor move, etc.)
  • Thesis impact: Does this strengthen, weaken, or neutralize a specific pillar?
  • Action: No change / Increase position / Trim / Exit
  • Updated conviction: High / Medium / Low

Step 3: Thesis Scorecard

Maintain a running scorecard:

PillarOriginal ExpectationCurrent StatusTrend
Revenue growth >20%On trackQ3 was 22%Stable
Margin expansionBehindMargins flat YoYConcerning
New product launchPendingDelayed to Q2Watch

Step 4: Catalyst Calendar

Track upcoming catalysts:

DateEventExpected ImpactNotes

Step 5: Output

Thesis summary suitable for:

  • Morning meeting discussion
  • Portfolio review
  • Risk committee presentation

Format: Concise markdown or Word doc with the scorecard, recent updates, and current conviction level.

Important Notes

  • A thesis should be falsifiable — if nothing could disprove it, it's not a thesis
  • Track disconfirming evidence as rigorously as confirming evidence
  • Review theses at least quarterly, even when nothing dramatic has happened
  • If the user manages multiple positions, offer to do a full portfolio thesis review
  • Store thesis data in a structured format so it can be referenced across sessions

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