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[BLOCKING] Execute declared steps in order. NEVER skip, reorder, or merge without explicit user approval. [BLOCKING] Before each step/sub-skill call, update todo tracking: set in_progress at start, completed at end. [BLOCKING] Every completed/skipped step MUST include brief evidence or explicit skip reason. [BLOCKING] If Task tools unavailable, maintain equivalent step tracker with same status transitions.

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Quick Summary

Goal: Evaluate business idea viability; deliver evidence-backed viability verdict—score, confidence, Pursue/Pivot/Pause/Pass recommendation—grounded in complete 9-block BMC, 3-year financials + assumptions, 5+ risks with mitigation + residual risk, phased execution + GTM plan, so go/no-go rests on traced evidence, never optimism.

Summary:

• Order: Seven evaluation steps, preceded by a market-evidence precondition: load market evidence first, then run ALL 7 evaluation steps in order — detect idea/scope/evidence completeness; (1) capture idea (problem/solution/target), (2) 9-block BMC, (3) 3-year financials + assumptions, (4) 5+ risks + mitigation/residual risk, (5) phased execution, (6) GTM, (7) verdict. NEVER skip, reorder, or merge — why: partial evaluation invalidates the decision.
• Market gate: In workflow parent, read exact MARKET_ANALYSIS_PATH ({plan-dir}/research/market-analysis.md only copy fallback); standalone, use supplied path. If absent, state /market-analysis did not run, mark TAM/SAM/SOM, share, and segment size N/A, cap verdict confidence at 60%; NEVER re-derive sizing.
• Evidence gate: all 9 BMC blocks cite proof; every financial number has assumption + source; each 5+ risk has mitigation + residual risk; unbacked artifact fails.
• Decision/output: verdict = 1-10 score + confidence tier (95/80/60/<60%) + basis + Pursue/Pivot/Pause/Pass + key success condition; write to docs/knowledge/strategy/business/{descriptive-slug}.md via enforced .claude/templates/business-evaluation-template.md, then ask user question tool for next route (domain-analysis recommended); NEVER auto-decide, favor skepticism.

Workflow:

Before evaluation — detect + reason: classify supplied idea, scope, and market evidence as present, missing, or ambiguous; for each step run focused Think: evidence / economics / execution / decision passes. Derive concerns from idea + evidence; required blocks/categories guide coverage, not checklist recitation.

Precondition — load market analysis: In workflow-research business-eval mode, read exact parent-provided MARKET_ANALYSIS_PATH ({plan-dir}/research/market-analysis.md only copy fallback); in another workflow, read the exact path market-analysis returned in this run (or its {plan-dir}/research/market-analysis.md copy); standalone, use explicitly supplied path. Absent → do NOT re-derive: state /market-analysis did not run; mark every market-sizing figure (TAM/SAM/SOM, share, segment size) N/A with that reason; cap verdict confidence at 60%.

1. Capture idea — Problem, solution, target customer
2. Business Model Canvas — All 9 blocks with evidence
3. Financial projections — 3-year revenue, costs, break-even
4. Risk assessment — 5+ risks with mitigation
5. Execution plan — 3 phases with milestones
6. Go-to-market — Launch, channels, pricing rationale
7. Verdict — Viability score, confidence, recommendation

Key Rules:

• Require all 9 BMC blocks; each cites evidence
• Financial projections require explicit assumptions table
• Require ≥5 risks, each with mitigation AND residual risk
• Verdict requires evidence + confidence declaration
• Inside a delivery or product workflow (not workflow-research, whose knowledge-review gate covers this), when the verdict feeds a go/no-go, run knowledge-review's core rows (citation, calibration, cross-validation) on the business case before presenting the decision; see Output
• Risk profile: analysis. Fresh-eyes review, specialist routing, inline sub-agent protocols, and recursive quality loops: N/A — not required by this target contract; this skill does not delegate or own fix convergence.

Be skeptical; apply critical/sequential thinking. Every claim needs traced proof + confidence percentage (Idea should be more than 80%).

Contents

• Quick Summary
• Business Evaluation
• Step 1: Capture the Idea
• Step 2: Business Model Canvas
• Step 3: Financial Projections (3 Years)
• Step 4: Risk Assessment
• Step 5: Execution Plan
• Step 6: Go-to-Market
• Step 7: Verdict
• Output
• Next Steps
• Prompt-Enhance Closing Anchors
• Closing Reminders

Business Evaluation

Step 1: Capture the Idea

Extract from user input:

• One-liner — Elevator pitch in 1 sentence
• Problem — What pain point does it solve?
• Solution — How does it solve it?
• Target customer — Who specifically benefits?

Step 2: Business Model Canvas

Require all 9 blocks:

Block	Key Question	Evidence Required
Customer Segments	Who are we serving?	Market research
Value Propositions	What value do we deliver?	Customer pain points
Channels	How do we reach customers?	Channel analysis
Customer Relationships	How do we maintain relationships?	Retention strategy
Revenue Streams	How do we make money?	Pricing research
Key Resources	What do we need?	Resource assessment
Key Activities	What must we do?	Operational analysis
Key Partnerships	Who helps us?	Partner landscape
Cost Structure	What does it cost?	Cost analysis

Step 3: Financial Projections (3 Years)

Revenue Model

Year	Users/Customers	ARPU	Revenue	Growth

Cost Structure

Category	Y1	Y2	Y3

Break-Even

• Monthly burn: ${X}
• Break-even point: Month/Year
• Funding needed: ${X}

Assumptions Table

Every number lists its assumption + source.

Step 4: Risk Assessment

Require ≥5 risks:

Risk	Likelihood	Impact	Mitigation	Residual Risk

Consider market, execution, financial, competitive, regulatory, technical.

Step 5: Execution Plan

Phase	Timeline	Focus	Key Milestones
Validation	0-3 months	Customer discovery, MVP	N interviews, prototype
Build	3-6 months	Core product, early users	Beta launch, first revenue
Growth	6-12 months	Scale, optimize	Revenue target, team size

Step 6: Go-to-Market

• Launch strategy — How to enter market
• Initial channels — Top 3 acquisition channels
• Pricing strategy — Model + rationale + competitive comparison

Step 7: Verdict

• Viability score: 1-10 with rationale
• Confidence: 95%/80%/60%/<60% with evidence basis
• Recommendation: Pursue | Pivot | Pause | Pass
• Key condition: What must be true for this to succeed?

Output

Write to docs/knowledge/strategy/business/{descriptive-slug}.md using enforced template from .claude/templates/business-evaluation-template.md.

Business-case check before a go/no-go: when this skill runs inside a delivery or product workflow (for example workflow-big-feature or workflow-greenfield-init) and the verdict feeds that workflow's go/no-go, run the core rows of .claude/skills/knowledge-review/SKILL.md on the written business case before presenting the decision: checklist 2 Citation Audit, 3 Confidence Accuracy and 6 Cross-Validation. Run one read-only pass, fix each failed row in the artifact (or lower the confidence it overstates), then present the verdict with the check result. Inside workflow-research its knowledge-review gate reviews the artifact instead; standalone runs skip this check.

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Next Steps

Inside a workflow: when this skill runs as a step of an active workflow, skip the prompts in this section and return the result — the workflow's next step decides what runs (/start-workflow → Step Execution Protocol, Workflow-step mode).

MANDATORY IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION — NO EXCEPTIONS After completion, use ask user question tool to present these options. Do NOT skip because the task seems "simple" or "obvious"—the user decides:

• "/domain-analysis (Recommended)" — Analyze domain model from business evaluation
• "/plan" — If ready to plan implementation
• "Skip, continue manually" — user decides

[IMPORTANT] Use TaskCreate to split ALL work into small tasks BEFORE starting.

External Memory: For complex/lengthy research, analysis, scans, or reviews, write intermediate findings + final results to tmp/reports/—preserves context and serves as deliverable.

Evidence Gate: MANDATORY IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION—every claim, finding, and recommendation requires file:line proof or traced evidence + confidence percentage (>80% act; <80% verify first).

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Prompt-Enhance Closing Anchors

IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION follow declared step order for this skill; NEVER skip, reorder, or merge steps without explicit user approval; inside a workflow run, /start-workflow → Workflow-step mode bounds this IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION for every step/sub-skill call: set in_progress before execution, set completed after execution IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION every skipped step MUST include explicit reason; every completed step MUST include concise evidence IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION if Task tools unavailable, maintain an equivalent step-by-step plan tracker with synchronized statuses

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Closing Reminders

IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION Goal: Evaluate business idea viability; deliver evidence-backed viability verdict—score, confidence, Pursue/Pivot/Pause/Pass recommendation—grounded in complete 9-block BMC, 3-year financials + assumptions, 5+ risks with mitigation + residual risk, phased execution + GTM plan, so go/no-go rests on traced evidence, never optimism.

IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION every claim, financial number, BMC block, and verdict carries evidence + confidence % (95/80/60/<60) — NEVER present a guess as fact — why: an unbacked number turns the go/no-go into optimism dressed as analysis. IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION bias toward skepticism on the verdict — NEVER round optimism up; surface the single key condition that must hold and the residual risk if it fails — why: a falsely-rosy Pursue burns capital that an honest Pause would save. IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION validate the next route with user via ask user question tool — NEVER auto-decide domain-analysis/plan — why: this skill judges viability, the human owns the go/no-go.

MANDATORY IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION break work into small todo tasks using TaskCreate BEFORE starting; keep one in_progress, mark completed with evidence; add a final review todo — why: untracked multi-step work loses state on compaction. MANDATORY IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION consume market data FROM market-analysis as evidence — NEVER re-derive market sizing here; if that producer did not run, mark the market figures N/A with the reason and cap verdict confidence at 60% rather than inventing them — why: this skill judges viability, it does not research the market; duplicated sizing diverges from the source. MANDATORY IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION all 9 BMC blocks present, each citing proof; every financial number lists its assumption + source in the assumptions table — why: a missing block or bare number is a silent gap the verdict then rests on. MANDATORY IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION minimum 5 risks, each with mitigation AND a residual-risk entry across market/execution/financial/competitive/regulatory/technical — why: a risk without residual pretends mitigation is total. MANDATORY IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION detect idea/scope/evidence completeness; load exact market-analysis evidence first (parent MARKET_ANALYSIS_PATH; {plan-dir}/research/market-analysis.md copy fallback; supplied standalone path; absent → market figures N/A + confidence cap 60%); then run ALL 7 steps in order: idea → 9-block BMC → 3-year financials → 5+ risks → 3-phase execution → GTM → verdict; output via template; ask user question tool for next route. NEVER re-derive sizing, skip/reorder/merge steps, drop financials/execution/GTM, or auto-decide — why: verdict quality follows the weakest step/evidence. MANDATORY IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION before writing any figure or claim, search market-analysis output + prior evaluations for 3+ comparable patterns and cite them — why: a number with no comparable anchor is a fabrication. MANDATORY IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION inside a delivery or product workflow whose go/no-go rests on this verdict, run knowledge-review checklists 2, 3 and 6 (citation, calibration, cross-validation) on the written business case and fix failed rows before presenting the decision — why: those workflows run no knowledge-review gate on the artifact the build decision rests on. MANDATORY IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION write the result to docs/knowledge/strategy/business/{descriptive-slug}.md via the enforced .claude/templates/business-evaluation-template.md — NEVER hand-roll the structure — why: the template is the contract downstream skills (domain-analysis/plan) read. MANDATORY IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION persist intermediate findings to tmp/reports/ for lengthy evaluations — why: external memory survives context loss and serves as the deliverable.

Anti-Rationalization:

Evasion	Rebuttal
"Idea is obviously viable, skip rigor"	Optimism is not evidence. Run all 9 blocks + financials + risks anyway.
"Skip a BMC block — not relevant"	Every block cites proof or states why N/A explicitly; silent omission fails the gate.
"Estimate the number, source it later"	No assumption + source = no number. Fill the assumptions table before the verdict.
"5 risks is a lot, 2 covers it"	Minimum 5, each with residual risk. Thin risk lists hide the real downside.
"Recommendation is clear, skip the ask"	Still ask user question tool for the next route — the human owns go/no-go.

IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION evidence + confidence % on every number — NEVER present a guess as fact. IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION bias toward skepticism — NEVER round optimism up. IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION ask user question tool for the next route — NEVER auto-decide.