conviction-audit

Follow CLAUDE.md Writing Standards strictly. Lead with the verdict and the fired trigger, no hedge words, tables over prose.

Audit one thesis for conviction–evidence mismatch and silently-fired triggers — the two ways a position quietly drifts from its stated conviction. Reports only; conviction/status changes are Tier 3 and happen via /status.

Arguments

$ARGUMENTS = a ticker or thesis name. If empty, ask which thesis.

Read-only

This skill REPORTS analysis; it does not modify vault files or conviction/status. It feeds /status (and, in the workflow, _followups.md).

Mental Models gate (MANDATORY — CLAUDE.md)

Read [[Mental Models/Generalist - Overview]] + matching Industry -/Lens - files. Apply the READING PROTOCOL and run the base-rate view adversarially: high conviction is exactly the state the outside view should attack — the question is whether the evidence earns the conviction, not whether the story is attractive.

Method (single source of truth — the portfolio-conviction-audit workflow reads this section)

1. Read the thesis: conviction: frontmatter, Summary, Key Non-consensus Insights, ## Conviction Triggers, Key Metrics, and the last ~10 ## Log entries. Count and date the ## Related Research links (evidence weight + recency).
2. Evidence-support check — does the STATED conviction match the WEIGHT and RECENCY of evidence?
   • Over-convicted: high on thin (≤2 supporting notes) or stale (no conviction-relevant Log entry in >60–90d) evidence — the /lint #60/drift concern.
   • Under-convicted: low/medium while recent research strongly supports the case.
   • Supported: conviction is earned.
3. Trigger-status check (highest-value) — for each ## Conviction Triggers line (→ HIGH if, → LOW if, → CLOSE if), evaluate its condition against current data (Key Metrics table + recent research; a scoped WebSearch only if a value is missing). Flag any trigger whose condition is already met but conviction/status unchanged — a silently fired trigger. Also flag triggers too vague to evaluate (hidden vulnerability per stress-test Phase 2).
4. Decay check: days since the last conviction-relevant Log entry; is the thesis coasting on old conviction?
5. Verdict: supported | over-convicted | under-convicted, plus the list of fired/near-fired triggers, plus the recommended /status action (e.g. conviction high→medium, reaffirm, or none).

Output (solo run)

A verdict line, then a trigger-status table — columns: Trigger | Condition | Current value | Fired? | Action — and a one-line recommended /status call (or "conviction supported, no action"). No filler.

Workflow reuse

portfolio-conviction-audit (.claude/workflows/portfolio-conviction-audit.js) fans this ## Method out across every thesis, ranks the book by over-conviction + fired-but-unactioned triggers, and (on persist) writes _followups.md entries for the flagged names — never touching conviction: itself (Tier 3 stays with /status). Keep ## Method the single source of truth.