china-merger-model

Purpose

Build A股并购分析模型, analyzing accretion/dilution, synergy capture, and purchase price allocation for M&A transactions involving Chinese companies.

Key Differences from US Merger Models

Parameter	US M&A Model	China M&A Model
Accounting	US GAAP / IFRS	CAS (企业会计准则)
Tax rate	21%	25% (or 15% for 高新技术企业)
Currency	USD	CNY
Goodwill	Indefinite life	Amortized or tested under CAS
Stamp duty	Negligible	0.05% on equity transfer
VAT on asset deals	Varies	6% or 3% depending on 纳税人类型
Deal structure	Stock/cash common	股权/资产/吸收合并
Premium	20-30% typical	20-40% typical for China

Data Sources

Tier 0 — 万得 Wind（最全面付费数据）

• 覆盖：A股/港美股/基金/指数/债券/宏观/研报/分析（44个工具）
• MCP 服务：wind-mcp（需 WIND_API_KEY 密钥，以 ak_ 开头）
• 优势：全市场覆盖面最广、数据最全面、包含研报和量化分析
• 密钥申请：https://aifinmarket.wind.com.cn/#/home

Tier 1 — 同花顺 iFind（付费精确数据）/ AkShare MCP（Tier-2 免费备选）

get_financials(ticker_acquirer, "income")   → Acquirer P&L
get_financials(ticker_target, "income")     → Target P&L
get_quote(ticker_acquirer)                  → Acquirer valuation
get_quote(ticker_target)                    → Target valuation
get_industry_stocks(industry="...")          → Peer comparables

Secondary Sources

• 巨潮公告 — transaction announcements (收购公告)
• 交易所 — deal-related filings
• 评估报告 — target valuation reports
• Wind / Choice — comparable transaction multiples

Workflow

Step 1: Transaction Setup

Transaction structure (China-specific):

Structure	Description	Tax Impact
股权收购	Acquirer buys target equity	印花税 0.05%
资产收购	Acquirer buys target assets	增值税 + 契税
吸收合并	Target merged into acquirer	印花税 on asset transfer
借壳上市	Reverse merger / backdoor listing	Complex, case-specific

Key terms:

Term	Chinese	Notes
Purchase price	交易对价	Typically includes earnout
Control premium	控股权溢价	20-40% typical in China
Earnout	业绩承诺/对赌	Common in China M&A
Lock-up	锁定期	12-36 months for sellers
Stamp tax	印花税	0.05% of deal value
VAT	增值税	6% on asset deals
Deed tax	契税	3-5% on real estate/assets

Step 2: Sources & Uses

Sources:

Source	Typical %	Notes
Cash on hand	30-50%	Acquirer's existing cash
Debt financing	40-60%	Bank loans, bonds
Equity issuance	0-30%	增发 / 定增
Seller financing	Variable	卖方分期付款 common

Uses:

Use	Typical %	Notes
Equity purchase	85-95%	股权转让对价
Transaction fees	2-4%	IB, legal, accounting
印花税	0.05%	Stamp tax
增值税	0-6%	On asset deals only
Refinancing	Variable	Target debt repayment

Step 3: Pro Forma Financials

Pro forma balance sheet:

• Acquirer BS + Target BS ± purchase accounting adjustments
• Goodwill calculation
• Debt assumption / payoff
• Cash funding

Pro forma income statement:

Line Item	Acquirer	Target	Pro Forma	Synergies	Adjusted
Revenue			A+B
COGS
Gross Profit
OpEx
EBIT
Interest
Taxes
Net Income

Synergy assumptions:

• Revenue synergies: cross-selling, pricing power (typically modest)
• Cost synergies: headcount reduction, procurement savings, facility consolidation
• Implementation costs: integration costs in first 1-2 years

Step 4: Accretion/Dilution Analysis

Per-share analysis:

Pro forma EPS = (Acquirer NI + Target NI + Synergies - Incremental Interest) / Pro forma Shares

Accretion/(Dilution) = (Pro forma EPS / Acquirer Standalone EPS) - 1

Typical thresholds:

• Accretive: >+2%
• Neutral: -2% to +2%
• Dilutive: <-2%

EPS accretion alone is insufficient — also analyze:

• Cash EPS impact
• FCF per share impact
• ROIC accretion
• Strategic rationale

Step 5: Valuation Analysis

Football field:

Method	Acquirer Standalone	Pro Forma	Premium Paid
Last price
30-day VWAP
90-day VWAP
Premium to peer median

Transaction multiples:

Multiple	Acquirer	Target	Premium
EV/Revenue
EV/EBITDA
P/E

Step 6: China-Specific Considerations

Earnout / 业绩承诺:

• Very common in China M&A
• Typically 3-year profit commitment
• Compensation mechanism for shortfall
• Impacts deal accounting and future earnings

Regulatory approval:

• 经营者集中申报 (SAMR merger control)
• 外资安全审查 (if foreign buyer)
• 行业主管部门批准 (sector-specific)
• 反垄断审查 timeline: 180 days standard

Tax optimization:

• Step acquisition vs direct acquisition
• Asset deal vs equity deal trade-offs
• 特殊性税务处理 (special tax treatment) for restructuring

Share issuance:

• 定增 (private placement) approval process
• Lock-up periods for new shares
• Dilution impact calculation

Step 7: Scenario Analysis

Bear/Base/Bull scenarios:

• Revenue assumptions
• Synergy realization
• Integration costs
• Financing costs

Step 8: Output

Standard merger model output:

Scenario	Standalone EPS	Pro Forma EPS	Accretion	Pro Forma P/E	P/E Multiple Change
Bear
Base
Bull

Key outputs:

1. Accretion/dilution by scenario
2. Pro forma financials
3. Transaction multiples
4. Synergy value estimate
5. Strategic rationale summary

Quality Checks

Before delivering:

• Sources & Uses balance
• Pro forma shares calculated correctly
• Synergy assumptions documented
• Accretion/dilution formula verified
• Tax and fee assumptions appropriate for China
• Regulatory considerations noted
• Scenario analysis complete

Data Source Mode Switch: Set env var IFIND_DATA_SOURCE_MODE to control data source preference.

• ifind-only (strict): Use iFind only, error if unavailable
• ifind-fallback (default): iFind preferred, fallback to AkShare
• akshare-only: Skip iFind, use AkShare only
• wind-only: Wind only, error if unavailable
• wind-fallback: Wind first, fallback to iFind → AkShare