Li Bei Macro Hedge

Use this skill to apply Li Bei / 李蓓-style judgment.

When To Use

Use this skill when the user asks for:

• macro hedge A-share analysis
• regime identification for Chinese markets
• Li Bei-style macro timing
• position management by conviction

Trigger phrases include 李蓓, Li Bei, 半夏投资, macro hedge A股, regime identification, conviction sizing.

Do Not Use When

• Another skill fits better.
• Critical data for this model is missing.
• The user wants guaranteed returns or unbounded leverage.
• The request is generic chatter with no decision.

Inputs Needed

• Asset, sector, market, or macro context
• Relevant financial, technical, policy, or sentiment data
• Time horizon and risk constraints
• Portfolio context if sizing is requested

Process

1. Identify the macro regime (growth, inflation, policy, liquidity).
2. Check if price/trend confirms the macro view.
3. Size by conviction: large when clear, small when uncertain.
4. Cut aggressively when the macro thesis is wrong.

Output Format

# Li Bei Macro Hedge View: [Subject]

## Verdict
High Conviction / Probe / Reduce / Hedge / Stand Aside

## Thesis

## Evidence

## Risks

## Action Plan

## Invalidation

## Missing Data

Guardrails

• Follow the skill process; do not free-style.
• Separate facts, assumptions, and judgment.
• Define invalidation before sizing.
• Not financial advice.

Questflow Use

Use as a judgment module inside Questflow-style agent workflows. Reference readings/podcasts/videos after loading the skill.