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Warren Buffett said he looks for "economic castles protected by unbreachable moats." A moat is a sustainable competitive advantage that protects your business from competitors. Without a moat, success attracts competition that erodes your margins to zero. This skill covers identifying, building, and deepening moats. Network effects, switching costs, brand, scale economies, and the rarer moats like regulatory capture and counter-positioning. Use when "moat, defensibility, competitive advantage, network effects, switching costs, barrier to entry, unfair advantage, protect from competition, sustainable advantage, winner take all, flywheel, lock-in, moat, defensibility, strategy, network-effects, switching-costs, competitive-advantage, seven-powers" mentioned.

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Autonomous agents are AI systems that can independently decompose goals, plan actions, execute tools, and self-correct without constant human guidance. The challenge isn't making them capable - it's making them reliable. Every extra decision multiplies failure probability. This skill covers agent loops (ReAct, Plan-Execute), goal decomposition, reflection patterns, and production reliability. Key insight: compounding error rates kill autonomous agents. A 95% success rate per step drops to 60% by step 10. Build for reliability first, autonomy second. 2025 lesson: The winners are constrained, domain-specific agents with clear boundaries, not "autonomous everything." Treat AI outputs as proposals, not truth. Use when "autonomous agent, autogpt, babyagi, self-prompting, goal decomposition, react pattern, agent loop, self-correcting agent, reflection agent, langgraph, agentic ai, agent planning, autonomous, agents, langgraph, react, planning, reflection, guardrails, reliability, checkpointing" mentioned.

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投行并购 (投行并购 / 交易撮合 (Investment Banking M&A / Dealmaking) — 面向并购顾问、企业融资、卖方/买方交易执行的职业认知操作系统，从业者(分析师 Analyst / 经理 Associate / 副总裁 VP / 董事 Director / 董事总经理 MD / 内部公司发展 Corp Dev / PE 投资人)、想入行者、以及服务这行(法律/会计/估值/咨询)的视角。覆盖: (a) 第一性张力 — 投行 M&A 的核心世界观分歧: **价格 vs 价值 (price 是市场愿意付的, value 是内在的, deal 在两者缝隙里成交) ⇄ 确定性 vs 最高价 (certainty of close 对卖方常胜过纸面最高报价) ⇄ 顾问/中介 vs 委托代理 (banker 是 agent, 客户利益 vs 成交费的激励冲突真实存在, 「banker 总想成交」是行业原罪批判)**; 更深层 — 「过程/竞价纪律 (controlled auction 制造竞争张力、信息不对称管理) ⇄ 关系/信任 (relationship banking、长期 coverage、reputational capital)」, 「叙事/包装 (the story, equity story, positioning) ⇄ 数字/尽调 (the numbers, diligence, quality of earnings)」, 「估值的科学外衣 (DCF/comps 的伪精确) ⇄ 谈判的真实定价 (价格由 leverage、竞争、时机决定)」; (b) 估值与分析正典 (最标准化、最易蒸出高质量+CLI 化) — DCF (折现现金流: FCF 预测/WACC 折现率/terminal value 终值/Gordon growth vs exit multiple), Comparable Companies (可比公司/trading comps: EV/EBITDA, EV/Revenue, P/E), Precedent Transactions (先例交易/deal comps: control premium 控制权溢价), LBO (杠杆收购模型: IRR/MOIC/debt schedule/sources & uses), Accretion/Dilution (增厚/摊薄分析: EPS 影响、pro forma), Sum-of-the-Parts (分部估值/SOTP), Football Field (估值区间图), Merger Model (合并模型: synergies 协同/purchase accounting/goodwill), Sensitivity/scenario; (c) 交易流程与产出物 — 卖方流程 (sell-side: teaser 简介 → NDA → CIM/IM 信息备忘录 → management presentation → IOI 意向函 → data room 数据室 → LOI/term sheet → confirmatory diligence → SPA 买卖协议 → signing → closing), 买方流程 (buy-side: thesis/sourcing → outreach → valuation → bid → exclusivity → diligence → financing → close), auction 类型 (broad/targeted/negotiated/preemptive bid); 产出物: pitchbook 推介材料、CIM、fairness opinion 公平意见、board presentation、fee letter、engagement letter; (d) 交易结构与条款 — consideration (cash/stock/mix/earnout 对赌)、deal protections (breakup fee 分手费/go-shop/no-shop/MAC 重大不利变化条款)、representations & warranties 陈述与保证、escrow 托管、working capital adjustment 营运资金调整、reverse termination fee、collar 价格区间、tender offer vs merger、hostile vs friendly、defensive tactics (poison pill 毒丸/white knight 白衣骑士/staggered board); (e) 行业结构与角色 — bulge bracket (高盛/摩根士丹利/JPM/BofA/花旗) vs elite boutique (Centerview/Evercore/Moelis/Lazard/PJT/Perella) vs middle market (Houlihan Lokey/William Blair/Harris Williams) vs regional/independent; analyst→associate→VP→director→MD 晋升金字塔; coverage (行业组) vs product (M&A/ECM/DCM/leveraged finance/restructuring); sponsors group (服务 PE); 买方包括 PE/strategic acquirer/corp dev; (f) 量化指标与节奏 — deal fee (success fee 业内通常约 1-2% 视规模递减/retainer/Lehman formula)、league table 排行榜、pitch→mandate 转化、deal velocity、hours culture (analyst 80-100h/week 文化批判)、bonus/comp 结构、deal sheet (简历上的成交清单); (g) 争议/批判 — fairness opinion 是否橡皮图章 (利益冲突: 出意见的 banker 也收成交费)、estimate 的伪精确 (DCF garbage in garbage out、假设驱动结论)、banker 永远建议成交 (deal 偏见、empire building 助推 CEO 自利并购)、协同效应系统性高估 (大量并购毁灭价值、winner's curse 赢家诅咒)、analyst 血汗工厂文化 (2021 高盛 13 人 deck 事件、过劳死争议)、advisory 价值 vs 中介寻租之争、bulge vs boutique 的利益独立性叙事 (boutique 标榜「无承销利益冲突」)、SPAC 泡沫与 de-SPAC 教训; (h) 流派/思想谱系 — 估值学派 (Aswath Damodaran 估值教父/纽大、Tim Koller McKinsey《Valuation》、McKinsey valuation 体系) vs 公司金融教科书派 (Rosenbaum & Pearl《Investment Banking》行业圣经、Brealey Myers Allen、CFI/WSP/BIWS 培训体系) vs 交易实战派 (Bruce Wasserstein《Big Deal》、Joseph Perella/Felix Rohatyn 老派 dealmaker、现代 boutique 创始人) vs 行为/批判派 (并购毁灭价值的学术证据、Damodaran 对协同/控制权溢价的批判、Matt Levine《Money Stuff》解构华尔街逻辑) vs PE/buy-side 视角 (LBO 数学、value creation 杠杆/运营/multiple expansion)。不含: 二级市场股票交易/卖方研究 (equity research)、零售财富管理/private banking、纯 ECM/IPO 承销执行 (虽相关但聚焦 M&A advisory)、纯 PE 投后运营、量化交易/对冲基金策略、纯公司财务报表会计。) Master OS — automated mastery of 投行并购 / 交易撮合 (Investment Banking M&A / Dealmaking) — 面向并购顾问、企业融资、卖方/买方交易执行的职业认知操作系统，从业者(分析师 Analyst / 经理 Associate / 副总裁 VP / 董事 Director / 董事总经理 MD / 内部公司发展 Corp Dev / PE 投资人)、想入行者、以及服务这行(法律/会计/估值/咨询)的视角。覆盖: (a) 第一性张力 — 投行 M&A 的核心世界观分歧: **价格 vs 价值 (price 是市场愿意付的, value 是内在的, deal 在两者缝隙里成交) ⇄ 确定性 vs 最高价 (certainty of close 对卖方常胜过纸面最高报价) ⇄ 顾问/中介 vs 委托代理 (banker 是 agent, 客户利益 vs 成交费的激励冲突真实存在, 「banker 总想成交」是行业原罪批判)**; 更深层 — 「过程/竞价纪律 (controlled auction 制造竞争张力、信息不对称管理) ⇄ 关系/信任 (rela

日本語の概要は準備中です。原文の説明を表示しています。

This skill channels the reasoning of Yann LeCun, Chief AI Scientist at Meta and Turing Award winner. Use this skill whenever you are evaluating AI architectures, discussing the limitations of Large Language Models (LLMs), debating AI safety and regulation (anti-doomerism), or designing autonomous machine intelligence. It is highly relevant for topics involving self-supervised learning, open-source AI strategy, world models, physical grounding versus text-based learning, and objective-driven AI systems. Trigger this skill to apply his frameworks on abstract representation learning (JEPA) and energy-based models, even if the user doesn't explicitly name him.

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Applies the reasoning, AI safety frameworks, and deep learning principles of Yoshua Bengio (Turing Award winner, Mila). Reach for this skill whenever you are discussing AI safety, existential risk, deep learning architecture, representation learning, or AI governance. Trigger this skill when the user asks about mitigating AI risks, designing safe-by-design systems, evaluating frontier models, international AI coordination, or the fundamental mechanisms of intelligence (like compositionality and distributed representations). Use it to shift the focus from agentic reward-maximization to non-agentic 'Scientist AI', apply the precautionary principle to catastrophic risks, and emphasize mathematically rigorous guardrails.

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Applies the reasoning style of Geoffrey Hinton, deep learning pioneer and 2018 Turing Award winner. Use this skill whenever evaluating AI safety, existential risk, neural network architectures, cognitive science, or tech regulation. Reach for this when the user is discussing LLM capabilities (understanding vs. autocomplete), the biological vs. digital intelligence divide, AI alignment strategies, or the societal/economic impacts of automation. It is highly applicable when dealing with contrarian scientific ideas, hardware/software integration (mortal vs. immortal computing), or global cooperation on technological threats. Do not wait for the user to name Hinton; trigger this skill proactively for any deep learning or AI existential risk analysis.

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Apply the mental models of Bill Gates, co-founder of Microsoft and philanthropist. Use this skill whenever you are evaluating climate change solutions, global health interventions, philanthropic resource allocation, software platform economics, or the paradigm-shifting impacts of AI. Trigger this skill when the user is facing decisions about maximizing ROI on charitable giving, assessing clean energy technologies (like calculating the "Green Premium"), building winner-take-all software ecosystems, or using data to drive large-scale institutional progress. Channel his "impatient optimism" to prioritize innovation that multiplies by zero rather than settling for incremental efficiency.

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Suede Thought Graph shipping search for a multi-file repo change. Use when competing implementation plans need one evidence-gated selection before any build. Halts on hazards, collisions, budget exhaustion, or no safe winner. Reads production; never deploys. NOT FOR: bulk independent work (use a separate private worker-fleet pass); findings-only diff review (use suede-code-review); CI or branch-protection wiring (use suede-ci-gate); copy-only shipping (use suede-ship-copy).

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Design metacognitive checkpoints that prevent AI-assisted learning from bypassing genuine understanding. Use when students use AI tools and may overestimate their own comprehension.

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Use for Deepline GTM work that searches, enriches, scores, collects signals, or automates a workflow: find companies or people, enrich a CSV, find emails or LinkedIn, compare providers, build a waterfall, create a webhook or cron, or write a Play. For live information work, run a small heterogeneous experiment, exploit the observed winner, and reopen misses. Skip pure copywriting and non-GTM research.

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Pull performance data for published content across every surface — LinkedIn, Dev.to, Google Search Console, GA4, and AI citation tracking (Perplexity, Anthropic, OpenAI). Grades each piece as winner, average, or underperformer and surfaces whether an AI search engine has cited it.

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Parallel agent orchestration for OST exploration. Fan-out multiple solution explorations, fan-in results to compare and select winners.

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AI solution exploration using ant colony optimization — deploying scout hypotheses, reinforcing promising approaches, detecting diminishing returns, and knowing when to abandon a strategy. Use when facing a problem with multiple plausible approaches and no clear winner, when the first approach is not working but alternatives are unclear, when debugging with no obvious root cause requiring parallel hypothesis investigation, or when previous attempts have converged prematurely on a suboptimal approach.

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Operator-side inventory of experiment PRs for auditing a Senpai research track. It outputs merged winners, a compact results table, and full details for deep dives.

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Review one terminal experiment and choose the next step: merge a reproducible winner, close a useful negative or dead end, or request missing evidence.

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Use when thumbnail concepts need real-size, accuracy-first scoring without misleading claims. Not for generating thumbnails or declaring winners that fail the accuracy rubric.

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Head-to-Head Stock Comparison — compares two stocks across valuation, growth, profitability, financial health, technical setup, sentiment, and risk with category winners and a weighted overall score. Triggered by "trade compare <TICKER1> <TICKER2>".

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Pull and analyze Google Search Console data via the GSC API. Produces: weekly query × page performance with WoW/MoM/YoY deltas, top movers report (winners + losers ranked by absolute click change), click-loss attribution (lost rank? Triggers: "GSC", "Google Search Console".

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Autonomous growth experimentation framework: creates experiments with hypotheses, logs data points, runs statistical analysis (bootstrap CI + Mann-Whitney U), auto-promotes winners to a living playbook, and suggests next experiments. Use when asked to run growth experiments, analyze A/B tests, build experiment scorecards, or generate pacing alerts. For SEO-specific experiments see seo-ops; for outbound experiments see outbound-engine.

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Run Karpathy-style autoresearch optimization on any content. Generates 50+ variants, scores with a 5-expert simulated panel, evolves winners through multiple rounds, outputs optimized version + full experiment log. Use when optimizing landing pages, email sequences, ad copy, headlines, form pages, CTA text, or any conversion-focused content. Triggers on "optimize this page", "run autoresearch", "score these variants", "A/B test this copy".

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Calculates statistical power for high-dimensional genomics experiments (bulk RNA-seq, scRNA-seq, ATAC-seq, ChIP-seq, methylation, proteomics) under negative-binomial count models using RNASeqPower, PROPER, and simulation via powsimR, distinguishing per-gene from marginal (transcriptome-wide) power, the role of mean expression and dispersion, and the sequencing-depth-versus-replicate tradeoff. Covers simulation as the honest default for overdispersed counts, FDR-aware average power versus single-test power, observed/post-hoc power as an anti-pattern, and the winner's-curse / Type-S / Type-M consequences of underpowering. Use when planning replicate number for a sequencing experiment, deciding whether to add depth or samples, choosing closed-form versus simulation power, estimating power from pilot dispersions, or justifying replication in a grant. For clinical-trial power see clinical-biostatistics/power-and-sample-size; for the inverse sample-size question see experimental-design/sample-size.

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Splits scarce time, budget or traffic across competing products, channels, campaigns or variants by treating them as a multi-armed bandit - Thompson sampling over beta posteriors, with optimism for anything not yet tried enough to judge. Use when deciding what to work on next, how to divide a marketing budget, which product to prioritise, whether to kill something that is underperforming, or when picking a winner among test variants.

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Agents work in parallel on the same task; judges evaluate and select the winner.

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Abbruchbedingung für autonome Loops: So weit wie möglich selbständig weiterarbeiten UND einen Loop erst beenden, wenn belegt ist, dass keine autonom ausführbare Aufgabe mehr vorliegt. Der bloße Eindruck "nichts mehr zu tun" reicht NICHT — er löst eine vierstufige Prüfkette aus (think/decide, _CONTROL/_DECISIONS, Gardener/USMC, decision-avatar/BYUM), die zuerst neue Aufgaben GEWINNEN muss, bevor der Loop enden darf. Jeder Kettenschritt meldet found/empty/unavailable statt eines binären Ergebnisses — "exhausted" gilt nur, wenn ALLE Quellen tatsächlich befragbar waren; ist mindestens eine Quelle unavailable, meldet der Skill "blind" statt "exhausted" und behauptet nichts Ungeprüftes. Nutze diesen Skill bei /work-autonomous, /waafap, "arbeite autonom weiter bis nichts mehr zu tun ist", als Goal-Bedingung innerhalb eines /loop, oder wenn geprüft werden soll, ob wirklich keine autonome Arbeit mehr übrig ist, bevor ein Loop/eine Session beendet wird.

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