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Separate a strategy return series into declared baseline exposure and residual edge with returns-based OLS attribution, HAC inference, rolling stability, alternate-baseline sensitivity, and regime breakdowns. Use when evaluating whether backtest, out-of-sample, or live returns contain independent alpha beyond market, equal-weight, momentum, sector, or user-supplied factor returns; when explaining whether a drawdown came from baseline exposure or strategy-specific behavior; or when a strategy needs an attribution quality gate after backtesting. Do not use for holdings-based Brinson attribution, feature-level Shapley explanations, or analysis from summary metrics without a dated return series.

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Critically review strategy drafts from edge-strategy-designer for edge plausibility, overfitting risk, sample size adequacy, and execution realism. Use when strategy_drafts/*.yaml exists and needs quality gate before pipeline export. Outputs PASS/REVISE/REJECT verdicts with confidence scores.

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SUPERSEDED by /claudex-loop (formerly /crucible; adds a Phase 0 research/recon pass + rebuilt interview) — prefer that skill unless you explicitly want this one. Two-act plan hardening. ACT 1 (you ↔ Claude) — Claude interviews you relentlessly about a plan or design, one question at a time, recommending an answer for each and exploring the codebase when it can answer itself, until every branch of the decision tree is resolved. ACT 2 (Claude ↔ Codex) — Claude writes the locked plan to PLAN.md and OpenAI Codex adversarially reviews it in a read-only sandbox (VERDICT:APPROVED/REVISE), Claude revises and re-submits to the SAME Codex session until APPROVED or a MAX_ROUNDS cap, then you sign off before any code. Use when the user says "/grill-me-codex", "grill me then have codex review", "grill me and stress-test the plan", "interview me about this plan then get a second model on it", or is about to build something high-stakes (auth, schema, concurrency, migrations, payments) and wants both alignment AND a cross-model sanity check before implementation. Builds on Matt Pocock's grill-me (MIT). For the docs-aware variant use /grill-with-docs-codex; if you already have a plan and want only the Codex review use /codex-review. NOT for reviewing already-written code (use /codex:review) and NOT for trivial changes.

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SUPERSEDED by /claudex-loop (formerly /crucible; its docs-aware mode covers this variant) — prefer that skill unless you explicitly want this one. Two-act plan hardening with living documentation. ACT 1 (you ↔ Claude) — Claude interviews you relentlessly about a plan, one question at a time, challenging it against your project's existing domain model and glossary (CONTEXT.md), sharpening fuzzy terms, stress-testing with concrete scenarios, cross-referencing code, and updating CONTEXT.md + ADRs inline as decisions crystallise. ACT 2 (Claude ↔ Codex) — Claude writes the locked plan to PLAN.md and OpenAI Codex adversarially reviews it in a read-only sandbox (VERDICT:APPROVED/REVISE), Claude revises and re-submits to the SAME Codex session until APPROVED or a MAX_ROUNDS cap, then you sign off before any code. Use when the user says "/grill-with-docs-codex", "grill me against the docs then have codex review", "stress-test this against our domain model then get a second model on it", or is about to build something high-stakes in a project with established terminology/ADRs and wants alignment, documentation, AND a cross-model sanity check. Builds on Matt Pocock's grill-with-docs (MIT). NOT for reviewing already-written code (use /codex:review) and NOT for trivial changes.

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Use when the user asks to "make everyone tell the same story", "write our elevator pitch ladder", or "build a spokesperson Q&A and approved boilerplate pack"; derives from the narrative-registry canon, message house, and brand voice a repeatable enablement kit — an elevator ladder (10-second / 30-second / 2-minute), a spokesperson Q&A (tough questions with on-canon answers), an approved boilerplate/bio pack (25 / 50 / 100-word), and a do/don't language sheet — so sales, support, founders, and partners repeat one consistent story. Not for the launch-day runbook — use launch-day-conductor; not for finished per-channel copy — use content-writer or each discipline creative builder; not for launch-window battle cards — use sales-enablement-kit; this kit never adjudicates a claim. 叙事赋能包/电梯梯度/发言人问答/审定样板/该说不该说

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Use when the user asks to "plan how our narrative lands on every surface", "write per-surface message-match specs", or "brief each creative builder from the canon"; maps the narrative-registry canon onto every flagship surface (homepage, pricing, store listing, sales deck, social bio, docs, email) as a per-surface message-match spec — what claim, pillar, proof, and objection reframe each surface must carry — and cuts a handoff brief to each discipline's creative builder (content-writer, ad-creative-builder, email-creative-builder, social-creative-builder, message-house-builder), so the same story lands consistently everywhere. Not for writing the finished surface copy — use each discipline creative builder; not for the tier-scoped launch asset manifest — use launch-asset-packager; not for scoring cross-surface consistency — use narrative-quality-auditor; not for claim adjudication — use offer-claims-registry. 叙事落地/逐面消息一致/创意交接简报/画布传导

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Use when platform-reported conversions disagree with GA4/ecommerce, when you suspect Meta and Google are double-counting the same sales, or for a standing (monthly) reconciliation workbook that de-dups stacked credit against an order-ID truth set, normalizes attribution windows and currency, compares attribution models, and reads incrementality from a geo/holdout test. Not for the point-in-time R2 veto or RQS gate — use ad-account-auditor; not for the ROI/ROAS ratio math itself — use roi-calculator; not for organic dark-social share attribution or GA4 direct-traffic decomposition — use dark-social-attributor. 付费广告归因对账/去重/增量

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Use when the user asks to "design an A/B test", "set up a creative/landing test", "run an incrementality test", or "is this result statistically and practically material?"; produces a hypothesis, variant matrix, sample-size/duration/power plan, and a documented effect/uncertainty read from own exported results. It applies only a precommitted owner-approved action rule; the statistical helper never chooses a business action. Not for producing variants — use ad-creative-builder; not for reading back one shipped change — use paid-measurement-loop. 广告AB测试设计/实验设计/显著性判定/增效测试

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Use when the user asks to "design an email A/B test", "set up a multivariate subject/CTA test", "run a send-time test", "build a hold-out group", or "is this email result statistically and practically material?"; produces a falsifiable hypothesis, one-variable-per-cell matrix, sample-size/MDE/duration/power plan, and an effect/uncertainty read from own ESP data. Applies only a precommitted owner-approved action rule; the helper never chooses a business action. Not for EQS/vetoes or writing the email. 邮件AB测试设计/多变量测试/发送时间测试/留出组/显著性判定

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Step-by-step process for merging a previously-standalone Grails plugin repository (e.g. grails-spring-security, grails-redis) into the grails-core monorepo as one or more Gradle subprojects, wiring it into the shared build, publishing, docs, and CI the same way the existing modules are.

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Build several genuinely different solutions to the same problem at once, spread across what the user does rather than how it looks. Use when one direction is on the table and the team is about to refine it by default. For choosing between the concepts afterwards, use `concept-selection`.

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Define actionable principles that resolve trade-offs when the team disagrees. Use when the same decisions keep getting relitigated. For a single project's framing, use `design-brief`.

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Design an A/B experiment — hypothesis, variants, primary metric, and sample size. Use when a change can be measured quantitatively at scale. For observing behaviour qualitatively, use `test-scenario`.

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Build a repository that makes findings findable, reusable, and cumulative across teams. Use when the same research keeps getting redone. For synthesising one study, use `affinity-diagram`.

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Design unbiased survey instruments — question wording, scales, and sampling — to measure attitudes at scale. Use when you need quantitative breadth. For behavioural experiments, use `a-b-test-design` (prototyping-testing).

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Decompose large-scale changes into independent units and spawn parallel agents in isolated worktrees. Use for migrations, refactors, codemods, and any change touching 10+ files with the same pattern.

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AWS-curated copy-paste prompts for AI coding agents (MVP scaffolding, RAG chatbot with Claude on Bedrock, security baseline evaluation, cost anomaly detection, GPU quota requests, EKS deployment, Well-Architected review, etc.) plus downloadable installable agents (Multi-Account Transition Advisor, Bill Shock Preventer, Service Quota Agent, Bedrock Model Availability Agent, AWS DB Advisor). Use when the user asks for a prompt to do X on AWS, wants an installable agent for multi-account / cost monitoring / quota management / Bedrock model availability / database selection, or asks how to use AWS prompts. For migration intent (GCP to AWS, Azure to AWS, OpenAI/Gemini to Bedrock), route to the migration skills in this plugin (`gcp-to-aws`, `azure-to-aws`, `heroku-to-aws`, `llm-to-bedrock`). Do not use for: factual AWS Activate / programs / credits questions, learn articles, sample architectures, or for prompts that are not in the bundled `references/prompt-library/` tree.

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Build and deploy full-stack web and mobile apps with AWS Amplify Gen2 (TypeScript code-first). Covers auth (Cognito), data (AppSync/DynamoDB), storage (S3), functions, APIs, and AI (Amplify AI Kit with Bedrock). Supports React, Next.js, Vue, Angular, React Native, Flutter, Swift, and Android. Always use this skill for Amplify Gen2 topics — even for questions you think you know — it contains validated, version-specific patterns that prevent common mistakes. TRIGGER when: user mentions Amplify Gen2; project has amplify/ directory or amplify_outputs; code imports @aws-amplify packages; user asks about defineBackend, defineAuth, defineData, defineStorage, defineFunction, or npx ampx. SKIP: Amplify Gen1 (amplify CLI v6), standalone SAM/CDK without Amplify (use aws-serverless), direct Bedrock without Amplify AI Kit (use bedrock).

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Authors and edits AWS Step Functions state machines: writes Amazon States Language (ASL) in JSONata, and chooses and structures state types (Task, Choice, Map, Parallel, Pass, Wait, Succeed, Fail). Covers ASL syntax, JSONata data transformation and variables, Retry/Catch error handling, service integrations (.sync, waitForTaskToken callbacks), Distributed Map for large-scale S3/CSV processing, saga/compensation patterns, Standard vs Express workflow choice, TestState API unit testing, and migrating state machines from JSONPath to JSONata. Use when the user is building, authoring, debugging, or migrating a Step Functions state machine or ASL definition, or orchestrating multi-step workflows with branching, retries, or human-approval callbacks, even if they don't say 'Step Functions.' Do NOT use for general Lambda function code, API Gateway, EventBridge wiring, or SAM/CDK application packaging.

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Configures AWS WAF to filter web traffic: creating web access control lists (web ACLs) on CloudFront, Application Load Balancers, API Gateway, and AppSync; AWS Managed Rules tuned in Count mode; rate-based rules for HTTP floods; IP set and geographic match rules; Bot Control (Common and Targeted); turning bot labels into a confidence signal; stripping spoofed inbound x-amzn-waf-* headers; recovering the real client IP behind a CDN; Fraud Control (account takeover and account creation fraud prevention); and logging and request sampling. Use when the user wants to protect a web application or API from common exploits, bots, credential stuffing, fake-account creation, or HTTP floods at the application layer (layer 7). Routes to the right per-task procedure in references. Do NOT use for L3/L4 DDoS protection (shieldadvanced skill), multi-account WAF rollout (firewallmanager skill), CloudFront configuration (cloudfront skill), or Route 53 health checks or records (route53 skill).

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Amazon Redshift is NOT PostgreSQL; corrects LLM mistakes; covers SQL, metadata, connectivity/auth, storage, query performance, and operations. Applies ONLY to Redshift (provisioned or Serverless). Pushes back on: CREATE INDEX, string_agg, pg_catalog, text type, SERIAL, stl_query. Triggers on: Redshift SQL, Redshift CREATE TABLE, Redshift COPY/UNLOAD, slow or suddenly slow Redshift query, EXPLAIN plan, queue wait, stale statistics/ANALYZE, result cache, Redshift permission denied, Redshift disk full, storage growth, snapshot/backup cost, ghost rows/bloat, VACUUM, spill to disk, distribution skew, Redshift system views, QUALIFY, PIVOT, MERGE, materialized views, Redshift Data API (Python/boto3), Redshift workload management (WLM), concurrency scaling, Redshift resize, Spectrum, awsdatacatalog, connection failures (SSL/TLS, ODBC/JDBC, connection limit), IAM/SAML federation, IAM Identity Center, datashares. Does NOT apply to: S3 policies, Athena, Glue/Iceberg outside Redshift, Aurora, RDS, DynamoDB.

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Provides verified corrections for IAM behaviors that AI agents frequently get wrong — policy evaluation edge cases, trust policy gotchas, STS session limits, Organizations quirks, and SAML/MFA specifics. Also provides structured workflows for IAM role management and baseline policy generation from application source code or a Terraform plan JSON. Covers condition operator safety (ForAnyValue/ForAllValues with Null checks), bucket policy deny patterns (VPC endpoint restrictions, org paths), confused deputy protection, and service role creation for AWS services (Glue, CloudTrail, Lambda, ECS, etc.) with aws:SourceAccount/aws:SourceArn trust conditions. Applies when creating IAM roles, writing IAM or bucket policies, generating policies from application source code or a Terraform plan JSON, working with STS, Organizations, or condition operators, or any task needing a service or execution role. Does not cover non-IAM authorization like Cognito user-pool policies or app-level RBAC.

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Deploys, queries, and debugs AWS Marketplace usage-based (PAYG) metering — the pipeline (ResolveCustomer, BatchMeterUsage, EventBridge via SAM) and querying/debugging metering records, statuses, failures, discrepancies. Covers Concurrent Agreements (CustomerAWSAccountId + LicenseArn), multi-product, CloudTrail Event History (90 days; never CloudTrail Lake), Seller Reports (Billed Revenue/Usage columns + CSV/SDDS parsing), existing-stack detection, metering region for BatchMeterUsage/MeterUsage (DisabledApiException), metered AMI/Container + IAM roles, where registration data lives (customer-profile table), legacy ProductCode + CustomerIdentifier, DuplicateRecord/CustomerNotSubscribed, bad LicenseArn. Also SCOPES adjacent asks — flat-rate/SaaS-Subscription "do I still meter", CCP included-units + overage, contract term/annual renewal, forecasting future bills/usage — with the right answer or a one-line redirect. Use for any BatchMeterUsage/ResolveCustomer or SaaS usage-billing question.

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Configures CI/CD pipelines using AWS CodePipeline, CodeBuild, CodeDeploy, CodeConnections, and CodeArtifact. Covers CodePipeline V2 (triggers, variables, execution modes, cross-account), buildspec.yml (caching, VPC, Docker), CodeDeploy strategies (blue/green, canary, linear), CodeArtifact (private package registries, auth tokens, cross-account), and source connections (GitHub, GitLab, Bitbucket). Applies when CodePipeline, CodeBuild, CodeDeploy, CodeConnections, CodeArtifact, buildspec.yml, appspec.yml, or CI/CD pipeline orchestration is referenced. Does NOT cover: ECS Fargate services or task definitions (use aws-containers), CDK Pipelines or cdk deploy (use aws-cdk), sam deploy (use aws-serverless), Amplify deployments (use aws-amplify), or GitHub Actions/GitLab CI.

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