「uncertainty」の検索結果

Use before responding to pressure for agreement, manufactured urgency, authority appeals, or requests to certify unsupported claims; separate evidence from persuasion and state uncertainty.

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Analyze cross-channel campaign data, quantify uncertainty, and propose evidence-labeled budget tests without overstating causality.

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Applies the reasoning of Stuart Russell, AI safety expert, UC Berkeley professor, and co-author of 'Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach'. Reach for this skill whenever evaluating AI safety, value alignment, the control problem, existential risk, AI regulation, or autonomous weapons. Use this when the user is discussing objective uncertainty, reinforcement learning risks, AI governance, or the societal impacts of AGI. Trigger this skill to apply his frameworks on provably beneficial AI, assistance games, and red-line regulation, ensuring AI systems remain deferential, uncertain of their objectives, and strictly aligned with human preferences.

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Think and work like an expert Metrology Scientist. Use when a task calls for Metrology Scientist judgment. Reason from SI traceability, GUM uncertainty budgets, and VIM distinctions between calibration and verification; propagates Type A/B components, CIPM MRA equivalence, and ILAC decision rules before any pass/fail claim.

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Think and work like an expert Mathematical Modeler. Use when a task calls for Mathematical Modeler judgment. Reasons from nondimensionalization, conservation/positivity laws, and minimal-viable model structure through mechanistic ODE/PDE, stochastic, and agent-based formulations, profile-likelihood and Fisher-information identifiability, and Sobol/Morris sensitivity analysis, while treating sloppy unidentifiable parameters, structural model uncertainty, and out-of-regime extrapolation as first-class failure modes.

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Think and work like an expert Isotope Geochemist. Use when a task calls for Isotope Geochemist judgment. Reasons from fractionation theory, decay schemes, reservoir mixing, and closure assumptions through standard-sample bracketing, double-spike deconvolution, isochron/Tera-Wasserburg fitting with MSWD, and ISO Guide uncertainty propagation while treating Pb-blank and lab-air contamination, mass bias, Pb loss and inheritance, and open-system resetting as first-class failure modes.

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Think and work like an expert Hydrogeologist. Use when a task calls for Hydrogeologist judgment. Reasons from Darcy's law, mass conservation, aquifer heterogeneity, and coupled biogeochemical transport through Theis and Cooper-Jacob aquifer-test analysis, MODFLOW/MT3DMS modeling with PEST uncertainty, and low-flow geochemical sampling while treating wellbore-storage and skin artifacts, equivalent-porous-medium failure in fractured/karst flow, and non-unique K-S calibration as first-class failure modes.

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Think and work like an expert Instrumentation Engineer. Use when a task calls for Instrumentation Engineer judgment. Reasons from the process variable, its transduction chain, 4-20 mA loop integrity, and traceable calibration through ISA-5.1 P&IDs, NAMUR NE43 fault bands, ISO 5167 orifice sizing, and GUM uncertainty budgets while treating plugged impulse lines, double-applied square-root, ground-loop noise, and unrevalidated SIS bypasses as first-class failure modes.

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Think and work like an expert Geographic Information Scientist (GIS). Use when a task calls for Geographic Information Scientist (GIS) judgment. Reasons from location, topology, scale, and positional uncertainty through PostGIS/GDAL pipelines, explicit EPSG/datum choices, kriging with cross-validated variograms, and ISO 19115/FGDC metadata while treating MAUP and ecological fallacy, Web Mercator area statistics, floating-point slivers and broken topology, and spatial-autocorrelation-inflated significance as first-class failure modes.

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Think and work like an expert Forensic Chemist. Use when a task calls for Forensic Chemist judgment. Reasons from chain of custody, validated methods, measurement uncertainty, and class-versus-individual characteristics through GC-MS, LC-MS/MS, FTIR, and SWGDRUG-aligned identification under ISO/IEC 17025, while treating carryover contamination, secondary transfer, isomer co-elution, and upgrading equivocal results into source attribution as first-class failure modes.

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Think and work like an expert Environmental Policy Analyst. Use when a task calls for Environmental Policy Analyst judgment. Reasons from statutory authority, baseline definition, and monetization boundaries through NEPA/ESA compliance, Circular A-4 RIAs, EPA SC-GHG and benefit transfer, IAM/IPCC scenario use, and APA regulatory comment while treating discount-rate dominance, weak transfer extrapolation, IAM structural uncertainty, and baseline inflation as first-class failure modes.

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Think and work like an expert Experimental Physicist. Use when a task calls for Experimental Physicist judgment. Reasons from GUM error budgets, traceable calibration chains, and multiplied signal-chain transfer functions — separating Type A and Type B uncertainty, null runs, and ELN-linked reproducibility before precision or discovery claims.

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Think and work like an expert Climate Scientist. Use when a task calls for Climate Scientist judgment. Reasons from ERF/EEI energy-budget closure, AR6 forcing (WMGHG vs ERFaci), optimal fingerprinting and FAR event attribution, CMIP6/ScenarioMIP SSP workflows (ESGF, ESMValTool), and paleo proxy physics (PAGES2k, ice-core δD/CO₂, foraminifera Mg/Ca, coral Sr/Ca) while treating aerosol uncertainty, tree-ring divergence, CMIP tuning circularity, and TLS under-coverage as first-class failure modes.

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Think and work like an expert Analytical Chemist. Use when a task calls for Analytical Chemist judgment. Reasons from the chemical measurement process through ICH Q2(R2) and USP <621> validation, CRM traceability, EURACHEM uncertainty budgets, and HPLC/GC/LC-MS/ICP-MS workflows while treating matrix effects, SST drift, peak tailing, and ion suppression as first-class failure modes.

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Think and work like an expert Bayesian Statistician. Use when a task calls for Bayesian Statistician judgment. Reasons from Bayes' rule, coherent uncertainty, exchangeability, and partial-pooling hierarchy through Stan/PyMC HMC-NUTS fits, prior and posterior predictive checks, PSIS-LOO, and SBC calibration while treating divergent transitions and funnels, weak identifiability and label switching, improper posteriors, and post-hoc prior tuning as first-class failure modes.

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Grounded in first principles, rigorously examine and refine a user's plan, task, decision, goal, strategy, proposal, or idea through structured, progressively deeper questioning, in order to bridge the gap between the User and the Agent. Use when the user explicitly requests grilling, challenge, pressure-testing, cross-examination, red-team review, pre-mortem analysis, or a decision audit. The goal is to uncover unclear objectives, hidden assumptions, contradictions, weak evidence, missing information, overlooked constraints, dependencies, risks, trade-offs, failure modes, and misalignment between intended outcomes and likely real-world results. Begin by establishing a shared understanding of the user's actual intent, goals, constraints, and success criteria. Ask focused, high-leverage questions rather than broad or repetitive ones. Adapt each question based on previous answers, probing deeper where uncertainty, unsupported assumptions, or strategic weaknesses remain. Regularly summarize the current understanding of the user's intent and position to confirm alignment, expose misunderstandings, and refine the problem or goal definition. Distinguish facts, assumptions, hypotheses, and unknowns. Challenge reasoning rigorously while remaining constructive, respectful, and solution-oriented. Continue until the reasoning is internally coherent, evidence-aware, constraint-conscious, risk-assessed, and translated into a clearer, more actionable goal, decision, or plan. Ultimately, achieving the super-alignment.

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Reconstruct ancestral states at internal phylogenetic nodes for sequences (PAML codeml, IQ-TREE --ancestral, GRASP, FastML), discrete traits (corHMM hidden-rate Markov, ape::ace, phytools::make.simmap stochastic mapping, BayesTraits), and continuous traits (phytools::fastAnc, geiger Brownian/OU, RPANDA). Use when designing constructs for ancestral protein resurrection, tracing trait evolution along a tree, performing stochastic character mapping, testing models of trait evolution (BM vs OU vs EB), inferring ancestral genome content via Dollo or DTL reconciliation, or quantifying ancestral-state uncertainty for downstream comparative analyses.

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Predicts ADMET properties using ADMETlab 3.0 (119 endpoints with uncertainty), ADMET-AI, DeepChem MolNet, and chemprop D-MPNN with explicit handling of OECD QSAR principles, applicability domain assessment, calibration, hERG/CYP/AMES gold-standard endpoints, and PAINS / Lipinski / Ro5 / Veber / BBB druglikeness filters. Use when filtering compounds for drug-likeness, prioritizing leads by predicted safety, or building an in-house ADMET QSAR model.

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Expert in decision-making frameworks - systematic approaches to making better decisions under uncertainty. Covers decision criteria, reversibility assessment, stakeholder alignment, and decision documentation. Knows when to decide fast and when to deliberate. Use when "decision framework, how to decide, making a choice, tradeoff, should we, pros and cons, decision matrix, weighing options, " mentioned.

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CEO (Chief Executive Officer) — 一家公司「最高操作员」的工艺, 与泛泛「领导力 / 管理学」不同: (a) 设定战略与凝结愿景 (Drucker 的「企业的经营理论」+ Porter 论定位 + Hamilton Helmer 的「七力」+ Andy Grove 的「战略转折点」+ Roger Martin 《Playing to Win》); (b) 资本配置是 CEO 单一最高杠杆的工作 (Buffett/Munger Berkshire 致股东信 + William Thorndike 《The Outsiders 商界局外人》论 8 位非常规 CEO + Michael Mauboussin 论 hurdle rate + Bezos 年度致股东信「invariants vs bets」+ Mark Leonard Constellation Software); (c) 组建与领导高管班子 (Patrick Lencioni 《团队的五大障碍》+ Ben Horowitz 《艰难的事》+ Reed Hastings 《No Rules Rules》人才密度 + Andy Grove HOP《高产出管理》+ Lou Gerstner IBM 转型 + Marshall Goldsmith); (d) 董事会与投资人关系 (Larcker & Tayan 《公司治理重要》+ Bill George 《True North》+ 正式 CEO-董事长 / CEO-独立董事 protocol + 维权投资人 playbook + 资本市场沟通); (e) 企业文化与价值观作为操作系统 (Netflix 文化手册 + Amazon Leadership Principles + Bridgewater 《Principles》Ray Dalio + Schein 论组织文化 + 任正非 灰度 + 张瑞敏 人单合一 + 稻盛和夫 阿米巴); (f) 高不确定下的高风险决策 (Bezos Type 1/Type 2 决策 + premortem Klein + Kahneman 论 executive bias + RAPID/DACI + base rates + 情景规划 + 反思 premortem); (g) 对内对外沟通 (创始人 / CEO 致股东信作为机构构建工具: Bezos / Buffett / Reed Hastings 备忘录 / 任正非 内部讲话 + Town Hall + 危机沟通 Tylenol/Boeing/Wells Fargo + 应对维权投资人); (h) 跨阶段规模化 (创业 0→1 / 扩张 1→100 / 成熟期掌舵 / 危机转型): Steve Blank + Brian Chesky founder-mode + Marc Andreessen + Pierre Lassonde + Lou Gerstner 转型; (i) 创始人 CEO vs 职业经理人 CEO 的差异 (Paul Graham 「Founder Mode」2024 + Brian Chesky + Reed Hastings (创始人→职业过渡) + BCG/McKinsey 的「manager mode」+ 两者各自代价 + 什么时候切换)。诚实处理: 幸存者偏差 (单个 CEO 的打法 ≠ 普适规律, 学术研究显示 CEO 个人方差约 ⅓, 约 70% 来自行业 / 时代 / 运气 / 资本结构), 创始人崇拜, 区分可复制工艺与不可移植个人魅力, 治理与利益相关者责任 (员工 / 股东 / 社会), 反对 CEO 神话与 Welch 退休金扭曲 / Theranos / WeWork / FTX / Uber-Kalanick 时代 / Musk 80h+ / 996 工时崇拜。覆盖 founder-CEO (Bezos/Hastings/黄仁勋/Chesky/Brin/任正非) 与职业 CEO (Nadella/Gerstner/Pichai/Mulally/Lafley)。不含: 泛泛管理理论 (商业书已覆盖, 本 skill 专谈 C-suite 这个具体岗位), 不含: 「领导力」作为个人成长自助 (Robbins/Tracy/Maxwell 励志体裁), 不含: 「如何创业」早期战术 — 一旦有员工 / 董事会 / 资本, CEO 的工艺才开始。 (CEO (Chief Executive Officer) — the craft of being the top operator of a company, distinct from generic 'leadership/management': (a) setting the strategy and crystallizing the vision (Drucker's 'theory of the business' + Porter on positioning + Hamilton Helmer's 7 powers + Andy Grove's strategic inflection points + Roger Martin Playing to Win); (b) capital allocation as the CEO's single highest-leverage job (Buffett/Munger Berkshire letters + William Thorndike 'The Outsiders' on 8 unconventional CEOs + Michael Mauboussin on hurdle rates + Bezos's annual shareholder letter approach to invariants vs bets + Mark Leonard Constellation Software); (c) building and leading the executive team (Patrick Lencioni 'Five Dysfunctions' + Ben Horowitz 'Hard Things About Hard Things' + Reed Hastings 'No Rules Rules' on talent density + Andy Grove HOP + Lou Gerstner IBM turnaround + Marshall Goldsmith); (d) board and investor relations (Larcker & Tayan 'Corporate Governance Matters' + Bill George 'True North' + the formal CEO-Chair / CEO-Lead Director protocols + activist investor playbooks + capital markets communication); (e) culture and values as operating system (Netflix culture deck + Amazon Leadership Principles + Bridgewater 'Principles' Ray Dalio + Schein on org culture + 任正非 Ren Zhengfei 灰度 + 张瑞敏 Zhang Ruimin 人单合一 + 稻盛和夫 阿米巴); (f) high-stakes decision-making under uncertainty (Bezos Type 1 vs Type 2 + premortem Klein + Kahneman 'Thinking Fast and Slow' for executive bias + RAPID/DACI + base rates + scenario planning + premortem); (g) internal and external communication (founder/CEO letters as institution-builders: Bezos shareholder letters / Buffett letters / Reed Hastings memos / 任正非 内部讲话 + Town Halls + crisis communication Tylenol/Boeing/Wells Fargo + activist responses); (h) cross-stage scaling (founder-CEO of 0→1 / scaling 1→100 / mature-stage stewardship / turnaround): Steve Blank + Brian Chesky founder-mode + Marc Andreessen + Pierre Lassonde mining vs steady-state + Lou Gerstner turnaround; (i) the founder-CEO vs professional-manager-CEO distinction (Paul Graham 'Founder Mod

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游戏设计 (Game Design) — 设计游戏的规则 / 系统 / 机制 / 体验 的从业者认知操作系统 (以电子游戏为主, 含桌游 / 卡牌 / 棋盘游戏): 决定「玩家做什么、为什么有意义、每一刻的体验如何」的学科 —— 区别于游戏程序 (引擎 / 代码)、游戏美术 (视觉 / 音频)、游戏制作 (排期 / 预算 / 团队)。覆盖 (a) 核心设计理论与框架 (MDA 机制-动态-美学 Hunicke/LeBlanc/Zubek + Schell 的「透镜」+ Koster「乐趣即学习」理论 + Sid Meier「一连串有趣的决策」+ Salen & Zimmerman「有意义的游玩」/「二阶设计」/「魔法圈」+ Costikyan 论不确定性 + Suits/Huizinga 游戏哲学), (b) 系统与机制设计 (核心循环 + 游戏经济 sink/source/产出-消耗 + 正负反馈环 + 资源与成长系统 + 涌现 vs 脚本 Will Wright「可能性空间」+ Machinations 经济建模 Dormans + 支配 / 退化策略 + 正交设计 Garfield), (c) 关卡与遭遇设计 (灰盒 blockout + 节奏与张力 + 预告 telegraphing + 主线 vs 探索 + 环境叙事 + 锁钥 gating + 难度曲线), (d) 游戏手感与「juice」(Steve Swink《Game Feel》+ 即时响应 + 屏震 / 反馈 / 打磨 + 输入与镜头 + 「手感」是设计出来的不是附带的), (e) 玩家心理与 UX (Celia Hodent《The Gamer's Brain》+ 心流通道 挑战 vs 技能 Csikszentmihalyi/陈星汉 Jenova Chen + Bartle 玩家类型 + 动机与奖励节奏 + 新手引导 FTUE / 教学化 + 认知负荷 + 无障碍), (f) 平衡与调优 (Ian Schreiber《Game Balance》+ 对称 / 非对称 + 动态难度 DDA + 传递 / 非传递平衡 + nerf/buff + 消除支配策略 + 测试驱动调优), (g) 叙事与任务设计 (ludonarrative 失调 / 和谐 + 环境与系统叙事 + 分支 vs 线性 + Amy Hennig 角色驱动 + 任务结构), (h) 以玩家为中心的迭代流程 (Tracy Fullerton《Game Design Workshop》playcentric + 纸面原型 + 垂直切片 + 测试协议「看而不说 / 你不是你的玩家」+ 快速迭代 + game jam), (i) 类型与形态工艺 (roguelike/roguelite 与程序生成 Derek Yu + 平台跳跃 + RPG 系统 + 策略 4X + 解谜设计 Jonathan Blow + 多人 / PvP 平衡 + 桌游 / 卡牌设计 Reiner Knizia/Richard Garfield/Brenda Romero), (j) F2P / 长线运营 / 商业化设计 (核心 / 元 / 经济循环 + 抽卡 gacha / 开箱 loot box / 战令 battle pass 机制 + 留存 D1/D7/D30 + 转化 + 鲸鱼 + live ops 内容节奏 —— 并诚实处理掠夺式暗黑模式 / 强迫循环 / 剥削式商业化的伦理), (k) 设计师角色与工艺职业 (系统 / 关卡 / 叙事 / UX 设计师之分 + 通才 vs 专才 + 独立作者 vs 3A 团队 + 设计文档 + 传达设计意图 + GDC 工艺社区)。跨 3A / 独立 / 手游 F2P / 桌游。不含 游戏程序 / 引擎 (Unity/Unreal 编码 / 图形 / 网络同步) / 游戏美术 / 动画 / 音频 / 游戏制作 / 项目管理 / 排期 / QA / 游戏作为生意 / 发行 / 市场 / 电竞运营为终点 / 泛泛「我想做游戏」的 game-dev 教程 —— 本 skill 是「设计」学科: 规则 / 系统 / 机制 / 体验。 (Game Design — the cognitive operating system of practitioners who design the rules, systems, mechanics, and experiences of games (video games primarily, plus tabletop/board/card games): the discipline of deciding WHAT the player does, WHY it is meaningful, and HOW the moment-to-moment experience feels — distinct from game programming (builds the engine/code), game art (visuals/audio), and game production (schedule/budget/team). Covers (a) core design theory & frameworks (MDA Mechanics-Dynamics-Aesthetics Hunicke/LeBlanc/Zubek, Schell's Lenses, Koster's theory of fun = learning, Sid Meier 'a series of interesting decisions', Salen & Zimmerman 'meaningful play'/'second-order design'/'magic circle', Costikyan on uncertainty, Suits/Huizinga play philosophy), (b) systems & mechanics design (core loops, game economy sink/source/faucet-drain, feedback loops positive/negative, resource & progression systems, emergence vs scripting Will Wright 'possibility space', Machinations economy modeling Dormans, dominant/degenerate strategy, orthogonal design Garfield), (c) level & encounter design (blockout/greybox, pacing & tension, telegraphing, critical path vs exploration, environmental storytelling, gating & lock-and-key, difficulty curve), (d) game feel & juice (Steve Swink 'Game Feel', moment-to-moment responsiveness, screenshake/feedback/polish, input & camera, the 'feel' is designed not incidental), (e) player psychology & UX (Celia Hodent 'The Gamer's Brain', flow channel challenge-vs-skill Csikszentmihalyi/Jenova Chen, Bartle player types, motivation & reward schedules, onboarding/FTUE/tutorialization, cognitive load, accessibility), (f) balancing & tuning (Ian Schreiber 'Game Balance', symmetry/asymmetry, dynamic difficulty adjustment DDA, transitive/intransitive balance, nerf/buff, dominant strategy elimination, playtesting-driven tuning), (g) narrative & quest design (ludonarrative dissonance/harmony, environmental & systemic storytelling, branching vs linear, Amy Hennig character-driven, quest structure), (h) player-centric iterative process (Tracy Fullerton 'Game Design Workshop' playcentric design, paper prototyping, vertical slice, playtesting protocol 'watch don't talk / you are not your play

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Applies the reasoning of Stuart Russell, AI safety expert, UC Berkeley professor, and co-author of 'Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach'. Reach for this skill whenever evaluating AI safety, value alignment, the control problem, existential risk, AI regulation, or autonomous weapons. Use this when the user is discussing objective uncertainty, reinforcement learning risks, AI governance, or the societal impacts of AGI. Trigger this skill to apply his frameworks on provably beneficial AI, assistance games, and red-line regulation, ensuring AI systems remain deferential, uncertain of their objectives, and strictly aligned with human preferences.

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Applies the strategic thinking of Kiran Mazumdar-Shaw, founder of Biocon and pioneering Indian biopharmaceutical entrepreneur. Use this skill whenever you are advising on biotech startups, R&D innovation, global scaling, purpose-driven business, or navigating regulatory uncertainty. Trigger this skill when discussing affordable healthcare, balancing risk in long-gestation industries, breaking glass ceilings through credible success, or evaluating biotech sovereignty and AI. Reach for this skill even if the user doesn't name her, especially when they face career trade-offs, funding novel scientific ideas, or scaling manufacturing globally.

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Chooses under uncertainty: value of more data, cost-based thresholds, abstention, when to stop a test and ship, robust choice. Use when deciding, not estimating.

日本語の概要は準備中です。原文の説明を表示しています。