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Jason multi-agent platform implementing AgentSpeak(L) for practical BDI agent programming and deployment

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Detect crowded speculative positioning in CFTC futures markets (COT report analysis) to find contrarian setups using Jason Shapiro's methodology. Screens large-speculator ("non-commercial") net positioning across 65 futures markets (indices, rates, FX, metals, energy, crypto) via the FMP Commitment of Traders API, computes a 3-year and 26-week COT Index per market, and classifies extremes as CROWDED_LONG / CROWDED_SHORT. Use when the user asks about COT report analysis, crowded positioning, "who is trapped", speculative positioning extremes, contrarian futures setups, or wants to run Jason Shapiro-style analysis. This skill automates crowding DETECTION only (step 1 of 5) — it does not generate trade signals by itself.

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When you want multiple expert perspectives on a founder/operator question — a simulated board of advisors (Jason Fried, Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, Jensen Huang, Bob Iger, Paul Graham, Naval Ravikant, Sara Blakely). Bring a real decision — "should I raise prices?", "hire my first employee?", "raise or bootstrap?", "kill this project?" — and the council weighs in through documented frameworks, surfaces disagreements, and synthesizes a recommendation. Also use for 'maker council,' 'board of advisors,' 'what would Bezos do,' 'what would Jason Fried say,' 'channel Naval,' 'ask the council,' or how a famous founder would approach a problem. Optional live-research pass via deep-research / watch-video / last30days. Marketing questions go to marketing-skills' marketing-council. Archives to ~/.config/makerskills/maker-council/archive/. To commit to a direction, hand off to decide.

日本語の概要は準備中です。原文の説明を表示しています。

企业财务与 CFO 视角 (企业财务与 CFO 视角 (Corporate Finance & the CFO Lens) — 面向创业公司与中小企业主/创始人/业务负责人的『看懂钱、管住钱、用好钱』的财务判断,不是考注会/中级职称的准则背诵,也不是投行卖方并购执行或 VC 投资人的看项目视角。覆盖: (a) 第一性张力 — 这行的核心世界观分歧: **利润是观点,现金是事实(权责发生制下的利润由收入确认时点、折旧摊销年限、存货计价、资本化与费用化的选择拼出来,是一组可辩论的判断;银行户头的钱是唯一不能辩论的事实——所以 CFO 看三张表的顺序是现金流量表→资产负债表→利润表,与外行相反) ⇄ 增长本身要烧钱(账面盈利的公司照样会因营运资金被增长吸干而倒闭:先付供应商、后收客户钱,规模越大缺口越大,这是『增长性破产』;所以现金转换周期比毛利率更早预警) ⇄ 记账合规派 vs 管理决策派(一套账是给税局与审计看的准则语言,另一套视图是给经营者看的贡献边际与单位经济;同一笔成本在两种语言里归属不同,把合规科目直接拿来做定价决策是中小企业最常见的错) ⇄ 全成本分摊 vs 贡献边际(把固定成本按产量分摊进单件成本,会在淡季得出『卖一件亏一件所以停产』的错误结论;边际思维只问增量收入是否覆盖增量成本,但长期只看边际会让公司永远收不回固定成本) ⇄ 预算是承诺 vs 预算是地图(传统年度预算把数字变成考核契约,导致部门年底突击花钱与藏预算;滚动预测与超越预算派主张预算只是当前最好的猜测,该月月刷新) ⇄ 融资是里程碑 vs 融资是负债(融资新闻稿把估值当成绩,但优先股、优先清算权、对赌与回购条款让创始人在低价退出时可能一分不拿;自筹派认为最便宜的钱是客户的预付款) ⇄ 估值方法之争(DCF 的数学严谨但对增长率与折现率假设极敏感,业内讥为『垃圾进垃圾出』;可比公司倍数简单但把市场情绪打包进来;早期公司两者都不成立,实际靠谈判与稀释目标倒推) ⇄ EBITDA 是不是有用(PE 与并购圈把它当经营现金流代理,巴菲特与芒格公开斥其忽略了折旧背后真实的资本开支;调整后 EBITDA 的『加回』项在业内被视为高危信号) ⇄ 财务是记分员 vs 财务是业务伙伴(传统财务事后出报表,财务 BP/FP&A 主张财务应在决策前进场做定价、投产、招人的经济性测算) ⇄ 中国中小企业的两套账现实 vs 合规红线(金税四期与社保入税之后,业内公认的做法是尽早并账,但这条张力必须如实呈现而不是装作不存在,也绝不给出规避税收的操作建议)); (b) 工具栈(记账层与决策层是两套东西) — 记账与 ERP(用友、金蝶、Odoo、QuickBooks、Xero、NetSuite、SAP Business One)、中国财税合规(电子税务局、金税四期发票与进销项比对、百望/航天信息电子发票、慧算账等代账 SaaS、个税与社保申报)、FP&A 与预算(Excel 与 Google Sheets 仍是绝对主力,之上是 Cube、Causal、Jirav、Mosaic、Runway、Abacum、Pigment、Anaplan、Planful)、现金流预测(Float、Fathom、13 周滚动现金流模板)、股权与 cap table(Carta、Pulley、AngelList、Excel 稀释模型,中国的股权代持与持股平台)、订阅计费与收入确认(Stripe Billing、Chargebee、Maxio)、费控报销(Ramp、Brex、Expensify、汇联易、分贝通)、BI 与看板(Power BI、Tableau、Metabase、帆软)、以及最被低估的纸笔工具(一页纸的驱动因素模型、贡献边际表、13 周现金日历)—— 选型的真正分岔是『公司在哪个阶段、由谁来维护这个模型』,不是厂商功能清单; (c) 心智模型层 — 三张表的勾稽关系(利润表的净利经现金流量表调整后落到资产负债表的未分配利润)、权责发生制与收付实现制的差、现金转换周期 CCC 与 DSO/DIO/DPO、营运资金与增长的耦合、贡献边际与盈亏平衡点、经营杠杆与固定成本结构、单位经济与 LTV/CAC 及回本周期、烧钱率与现金跑道 runway、自由现金流与业主收益 owner earnings、资本成本与机会成本、净现值与内部收益率、投入资本回报率 ROIC 与增长的价值条件(只有 ROIC 高于资本成本时增长才创造价值)、股权稀释与优先清算权的退出瀑布、递延收入是负债不是收入; (d) 工作流/SOP — 月度关账与管理报表包(关账日历、计提、对账、出具一页纸经营分析)、13 周滚动现金流预测的搭建与每周刷新、年度预算与滚动预测(自上而下目标与自下而上驱动因素模型的对撞)、定价与成本核算(标准成本、作业成本法、贡献边际定价与报价审批)、应收账款与账期管理(信用政策、账龄表、催收节奏、保理与供应链金融)、融资轮次建模(投前投后估值、期权池扩容对创始人的额外稀释、SAFE 与可转债转股、优先清算权下的退出分配)、投资决策与产能/招人测算(增量现金流、回收期、敏感性分析)、税务合规日历与汇算清缴、董事会与投资人财务包、尽调与数据室准备、以及财务模型的三表联动搭建; (e) 知识正典(en 一手极厚,中文一手集中在高校教授与准则原文) — 《Financial Intelligence》Berman & Knight(给非财务经理的入门标准)、《Financial Statements》Thomas Ittelson、Brealey·Myers·Allen《Principles of Corporate Finance》(公司金融教科书)、Damodaran 的估值三部曲与《Narrative and Numbers》及其 NYU 公开课与免费数据集、《Simple Numbers, Straight Talk, Big Profits!》Greg Crabtree(中小企业实操)、《Venture Deals》Feld & Mendelson(条款与稀释)、《Financial Shenanigans》Howard Schilit(识别财务粉饰)、《The Outsiders》Thorndike(资本配置)、《Accounting for Value》Penman、伯克希尔股东信中的业主收益与商誉摊销讨论、《The Essays of Warren Buffett》、《Profit First》Michalowicz(流行但有争议)、IFRS 15/16 与 ASC 606 收入与租赁准则原文、中国企业会计准则 CAS 与小企业会计准则、肖星《一本书读懂财报》与清华的财务分析公开课、张新民的财务报表分析体系; (f) 行业大佬/figures — Aswath Damodaran(NYU,估值教父,博客与公开课与数据集全免费开放,一手素材极厚)、Michael Mauboussin(ROIC 与资本配置的实证写作)、Howard Schilit(财务舞弊识别)、Karen Berman 与 Joe Knight(财务素养普及)、Greg Crabtree(中小企业现金与利润实操)、Brad Feld 与 Jason Mendelson(创业融资条款)、David Skok 与 Jason Lemkin 与 David Sacks(SaaS 单位经济与烧钱效率指标)、Warren Buffett 与 Charlie Munger(对 EBITDA 与股权激励费用化的著名批评)、CJ Gustafson 等现役 CFO 的时事通讯作者、以及中文圈的肖星与张新民等高校学者; (g) 争议/批判(必须保留不洗白) — 调整后 EBITDA 与非公认会计准则指标的滥用(把股权激励与一次性费用年年加回)、DCF 对假设的极端敏感与被用来事后合理化结论、独角兽估值与优先清算权造成的『纸面身价』幻觉、对赌与回购条款把股权融资变成隐性债务、Profit First 现金分桶法被专业会计批评为回避真实成本结构、作业成本法的实施失败率高、预算游戏与年底突击花钱、财务 BP 沦为报表美化、中国中小企业两套账的历史现实与金税四期后的合规收敛(如实呈现风险,不提供规避操作)、以及『融资额等于成功』的媒体叙事对创始人的误导; (h) 流派/思想谱系 — **准则与合规派(IASB/FASB/财政部,信可比性与审计留痕,语言是准则条文)** vs **管理会计/决策派(IMA 与贡献边际、作业成本法、有效产出会计,信决策相关性高于合规一致性)** vs **公司金融/估值派(Brealey-Myers-Allen 与 Damodaran,信现金流折现与资本成本)** vs **价值投资/资本配置派(巴菲特-芒格-Thorndike-Mauboussin,信业主收益与 ROIC,公开鄙视 EBITDA)** vs **创业与 SaaS 指标派(Skok-Lemkin-Sacks-Bessemer,信单位经济、回本周期与烧钱倍数)** vs **中小企业现金实操派(Crabtree、Profit First 一脉,信老板看得懂的少数几个数)**。不含: 投行卖方并购执行与尽调建模(已由 investment-banking-mna 覆盖)、VC 投资人的看项目与投后视角(已由 vc-investor 覆盖)、个人理财与二级市场投资(已由 personal-investing 覆盖)、注册会计师考证与准则条文背诵、以及任何税收规避操作建议。) Master O

日本語の概要は準備中です。原文の説明を表示しています。

Design AgentSpeak-style BDI plan libraries with explicit event, context, failure, and authority boundaries. NOT for treating BDI plans as safety approval or guaranteed execution.

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Defamiliarization audit for empirical output. Systematically interrogates every feature of a figure, table, or set of results — not just the main finding. Named for Jason Fletcher, who asked about the spike at t=1 when everyone else was looking at t=2. Use when you have output and are about to interpret or report it.

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Synthesize the three Jason Shapiro contrarian-pipeline verdicts (COT crowding, news-reaction failure, weekly price-action confirmation) into one actionable setup_status via a fail-closed precedence state machine. Pure, offline synthesis -- no network, no API keys, no computation beyond validation and precedence.

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Judge whether a market FAILED to react to news favorable to a crowded speculative position — step 2 of Jason Shapiro's COT contrarian process. Consumes a cot-contrarian-detector report (or an explicit direction) plus a Claude-curated events JSON, fetches the underlying price series with a documented fallback chain, and produces a fail-closed CONFIRMED / NOT_CONFIRMED / INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE verdict using a statistically validated drift-significance test (not a naive failure-ratio, which false-confirms on pure noise). Generic beyond COT — reusable for PEAD and macro-crowding news-failure checks. Use when the user asks to check news-failure confirmation, whether a crowded market "shrugged off" good/bad news, or wants to run Shapiro step 2 on a CROWDED_LONG/CROWDED_SHORT market.

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Builds a launch plan, launch story and press/distribution plan, then drafts the pitch emails and announcement copy. Use when you say 'launch plan', 'how do I get press', 'pitch a reporter', 'announce funding', 'go-to-market for a feature', 'Product Hunt', 'press release', 'launch messaging' or 'we shipped and nobody noticed'. Draws on 394 insights from 124 Lenny's Podcast guests, led by Emilie Gerber, Lulu Cheng Meservey and Jason Feifer.

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Suede Labs skill that finds and organizes the rights gaps in a creator project before packaging: ownership, contributors, splits, samples, licenses, provenance, metadata, licensing readiness, and royalty-routing readiness, each marked confirmed or unknown against an evidence trail. Use when a song, release, or creative project needs a rights check before registry, licensing, sync, or payout discussion; when splits, sample clearance, or chain of title are unclear; or when someone asks whether they have the rights to release, license, or get paid for a work. Organizes evidence only: clears no rights, confirms no ownership, moves no money, writes to no registry. NOT FOR: building the transfer package itself (use suede-rights-passport); linting a release folder's files and metadata (use suede-release-linter); a sync one-sheet or pitch (use suede-sync-packaging).

日本語の概要は準備中です。原文の説明を表示しています。

Suede-owned SMS and MMS marketing discipline. Use when evaluating SMS as a channel, designing consent-aware sequences, drafting messages, setting cadence, comparing number types or platforms, or defining measurement (TCPA consent, A2P 10DLC, quiet hours, cart-recovery and win-back texts. NOT FOR: email campaigns (use suede-emails), phone capture UX (use suede-site-alchemy), or legal certification) this skill does not give legal advice and never sends, schedules, imports, or registers.

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Suede Labs copy-only orchestration DAG. Use for one high-stakes piece strangers will read that has to be true: a landing page, launch post, blog post, email, X thread, docs page, README, ad, or store listing, researched, fact-audited, adversarially reviewed, and gated for publish readiness in one pass. The audit targets what the agents invent, never what the requester supplied: their own statements are given, and no phase may verify, hedge, or gate on them. Reads the live surface; never publishes. NOT FOR: multi-surface campaign writing (use johnny-suede-write); changing code (use suede-graph-flo-xr); one surface in one pass with no research (use suede-copy); stripping AI patterns from existing text (use suede-deslop); bulk generation of many independent pieces (private Suede Labs companion, not in this pack: suede-codex-fleet).

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Suede-owned SEO and generative-search audit discipline. Runs a nine-lane evidence-based audit: access, intent, metadata, structure, supported schema, E-E-A-T, clusters, and exact rewrite fixes. Use when a page or site needs a deep standalone SEO/AI-visibility audit with scored lanes. NOT FOR: a fast A-F launch-appeal grade (use suede-visibility-grader); conversion-path rework after the audit (use suede-site-alchemy); getting cited by ChatGPT/Perplexity/AI Overviews (use suede-ai-seo).

日本語の概要は準備中です。原文の説明を表示しています。

Suede Labs skill that turns messy creator materials into a local, offline rights-and-provenance transfer package: inventoried and hashed assets, a normalized suede-intake.json manifest, credits and splits, license notes, provenance, and a missing-information report, validated by a bundled stdlib script. Use when a creator needs to hand a song, release, or project to a collaborator, advisor, registry, marketplace, or label; when someone asks for a rights package, intake package, or handoff folder; or when a validated manifest is needed before licensing or royalty-routing review. Carries questions, not answers: building the package clears nothing and uploads nothing. NOT FOR: finding or investigating the rights gaps in the first place (use suede-rights-audit); linting a release folder's files and metadata (use suede-release-linter); a sync one-sheet (use suede-sync-packaging).

日本語の概要は準備中です。原文の説明を表示しています。

Suede-owned sales-enablement discipline. Use when creating pitch decks, one-pagers, objection guides, demo scripts, talk tracks, battle cards, proposal structures, buyer cards, or deal-level ROI framing. NOT FOR: setting price or terms (use suede-pricing), building the offer (use suede-offers), sending outreach (use suede-cold-email), or publishing unsupported proof.

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Suede-owned revenue-operations discipline. Use when defining lead scoring and routing, MQL or SQL criteria, pipeline stages, CRM hygiene, automation, deal-desk rules, or marketing-to-sales handoffs. NOT FOR: writing outreach (use suede-cold-email), lifecycle campaigns (use suede-emails), pricing strategy (use suede-pricing), or mutating production CRM records without approval.

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Suede-affiliated in-product monetization design for paywall screens, feature gates, trial-expiry states, usage-limit prompts, and free-to-paid upgrade moments. Use when the user needs trigger timing, message structure, plan presentation, or experiment design after users have experienced value. NOT FOR: public pricing pages (use suede-site-alchemy), tier architecture (use suede-pricing), or cancellation and save flows (use suede-churn-prevention).

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Suede Labs skill that prepares a song for sync pitching: scene and emotional angles, a supervisor-facing one-sheet, an exists/missing/unknown asset checklist covering master, instrumental, clean, and stems, screened lyric flags, mood tags, and the open clearance questions kept in their own labeled pile. Use when a track is headed for film, TV, ads, games, trailers, or creator campaigns; when a music supervisor, sync agent, or brand asks what a song is and whether it can be used; or when someone asks for a one-sheet, pitch email, or sync package for a release. Prepares review-ready materials only: never claims clearance, promises placement, or sends outreach. NOT FOR: finding and organizing the rights gaps behind an open clearance question (use suede-rights-audit); building the rights transfer package (use suede-rights-passport); linting the release folder itself (use suede-release-linter); a full rollout campaign (use suede-campaign-in-a-box).

日本語の概要は準備中です。原文の説明を表示しています。

Suede-owned marketing video planning and production discipline. Use when choosing a format, scripting, storyboarding, generating, editing, reverse-engineering pacing, building a repeatable video pipeline, or repurposing one source into multiple cuts. NOT FOR: deciding the social calendar (use suede-social), paid ad concepts (use suede-ad-creative), image-only assets (use suede-image), or publishing unapproved media.

日本語の概要は準備中です。原文の説明を表示しています。

Suede-owned organic social strategy and content discipline. Use when planning platform mix, posts, threads, cross-platform calendars, repurposing, listening, engagement, or cadence for a founder or brand account. NOT FOR: Instagram-specific account audits, Reels, carousels, Stories, or daily Instagram loops (use suede-instagram-growth), paid ad creative (use suede-ad-creative), broader editorial strategy (use suede-content-strategy), full video production (use suede-video), or publishing and engagement without approval.

日本語の概要は準備中です。原文の説明を表示しています。

Suede-owned conversion-path discipline for pages. Turns a page into a conversion path: hero, friction, proof, CTA, pricing, A/B ideas, quick wins, and mobile CRO. Use when a live or drafted page needs conversion-rate work on its structure and persuasion path. NOT FOR: a scored SEO/AI-visibility audit (use suede-seo-audit); a fast launch-appeal grade (use suede-visibility-grader); writing the copy itself (use suede-copy).

日本語の概要は準備中です。原文の説明を表示しています。

Suede-owned signup conversion discipline. Use when auditing or redesigning account creation, registration, or trial-start flows, including field friction, progressive profiling, identity options, mobile behavior, abandonment, and measurement. NOT FOR: post-signup activation (use suede-onboarding), lead-capture forms (use suede-site-alchemy), or deploying auth and compliance changes without review.

日本語の概要は準備中です。原文の説明を表示しています。

Suede-owned launch-appeal grader for public pages. Grades findability, first-screen clarity, CTA pull, proof quality, design signal, and AI citation readiness. Use when a public page needs a fast A-F visibility grade before or after launch. NOT FOR: the deep nine-lane SEO audit with rewrite fixes (use suede-seo-audit); implementing conversion changes (use suede-site-alchemy); getting cited by AI answer engines (use suede-ai-seo).

日本語の概要は準備中です。原文の説明を表示しています。

Suede AI umbrella router for the public Suede pack: selects the right specialist across copy, design, code review and grading, SEO and visibility, launch packaging, MCP QA, iOS and Android shipping, growth, and creator rights work. Use when a request crosses two or more Suede lanes, when the user wants the full public skill pack loaded from one installable path, when they ask which Suede skill fits a task, or when only this umbrella skill is installed. NOT FOR: a request that names one lane and can go straight to its specialist; a multi-file repo change that should be built and reviewed as one DAG (use suede-graph-flo-xr).

日本語の概要は準備中です。原文の説明を表示しています。