earnings-preview-med

Methodology inspired by publicly taught earnings-preview frameworks; all text is an original paraphrase.

Defaults

Parameter	Default Value	Rationale
surprise_window	8 quarters	Standard surprise history window
include_catalysts	true	Med prints move on catalysts as much as EPS
guidance_sensitivity	true	Guidance is the swing factor for pharma

Preflight

Run canonical pre-flight per contracts/preflight.md. Include the X-Agentii-Trace header on every tool call per contracts/x-agentii-trace-header.md — carry the _run_id from your first tool result and name yourself (and your parent, if you were spawned).

Triggers

• "Preview [biotech ticker]'s upcoming earnings."
• "What should I expect at [ticker]'s next print?"
• "How has [ticker] surprised historically?"
• "Which catalysts land near [ticker]'s earnings date?"
• "Build an earnings preview with consensus estimates."
• "What's the guidance risk for [ticker] this quarter?"
• "Summarize the last few quarters for [ticker]."
• "Earnings + FDA calendar overlap for [ticker]."
• "What are the swing factors for [ticker]'s print?"
• "Historical reaction to [ticker]'s earnings surprises."
• "What changed in my estimates, thesis, and positioning ahead of [ticker]'s print?"

Production Grounding

• Med prints have TWO drivers: financials (revenue/EPS/guidance) and catalysts (PDUFA/AdCom/readouts). The catalyst overlay is mandatory — a clean quarter can be undone by a CRL days earlier.
• Every preview closes with model-vs-consensus deltas (our modeled numbers vs consensus from search_earnings_calendar, signed with the driver named) and the three what's-changed vectors (estimates / thesis / positioning) — estimates move first, thesis and positioning follow only when the facts justify them.
• For pre-revenue biotechs, the print is mostly about cash runway + pipeline updates; consensus EPS is secondary.
• Grounding frameworks: references/knowledge-frameworks.md (道/法 review knowledge).

Data Source Priority

1. search_earnings_calendar — estimates, actuals, surprise history, next date.
2. search_xbrl_facts — revenue/EPS/margin trends.
3. search_documents/read_source_* — prior-quarter commentary and guidance.
4. Knowledge layer: search_investment_cases for historical print reactions.

Methodology

Retrieval Scope

unstructured_document_search

Retrieval Strategy

1. Resolve the earnings event: search_earnings_calendar for dates/estimates/surprises (consensus values).
2. Pull fundamentals trend: search_xbrl_facts key line items (our modeled numbers).
3. Compute model-vs-consensus deltas on each key line item; state assumptions; annotate coverage_gap where no consensus value exists.
4. Slot-refresh the three what's-changed vectors: estimates / thesis / positioning.
5. Catalyst overlay: nearest PDUFA/AdCom/readout vs print date.
6. Ground with historical cases (print reactions) via knowledge tools.

Temporal Scope

See frontmatter temporal_scope block.

Tool Allowlist

See frontmatter allowed_tools.

Protocol

1. Event & estimates
2. Fundamental trend
3. Model-vs-consensus deltas
4. What's-changed vectors (estimates / thesis / positioning)
5. Catalyst overlay
6. Swing-factor synthesis

Modes

• Standard (default): estimates + surprises + guidance.
• Pre-revenue: runway + pipeline + readout framing.
• Catalyst-overlap: print framed around nearby FDA events.

Tool Fallbacks

Failure	Fallback
search_earnings_calendar empty	Use filings (search_documents) for dates; annotate coverage_gap
No catalyst data	Flag "catalyst overlay unavailable"
Knowledge tools empty	Proceed with structured data only

Output File

{ticker}/{YYYY-MM-DD_HHMM}_earnings-preview-med_{affix}.md

Output Structure

1. Executive Summary — setup for the print in 2-3 sentences
2. Consensus & Surprise History — estimates table + surprise record
3. Model vs Consensus — our modeled numbers vs consensus (search_earnings_calendar) with signed deltas and named drivers
4. What's Changed — the three vectors: estimates / thesis / positioning (estimates move first, ratings last)
5. Guidance & Swing Factors — guidance risk analysis
6. Catalyst Overlay — FDA events near the print
7. Historical Context — cases with /v/ citations
8. Coverage Gaps — degraded flags

Error Handling

Error	Fallback
Estimates missing	Present fundamentals trend only; flag
Date uncertain	Use calendar's best estimate + annotate

Memory Load

See contracts/memory-load.md.

Snapshot

See contracts/snapshot-synthesis.md.

Final Summary (TUI)

Include ### Key Citations block with 0-10 clickable /v/ URLs.

References

• contracts/citation-and-memory.md
• contracts/output-frontmatter-schema.md
• contracts/memory-load.md
• contracts/snapshot-synthesis.md
• contracts/preflight.md
• references/knowledge-frameworks.md