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cccskills
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rate-cycle

Interest rate cycle analysis, Fed policy analysis, yield curve dynamics, duration management, central bank rate trajectory, monetary tightening easing, bond market analysis, rate forecast, forward curve, dot plot interpretation, rate hike cut cycle

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含まれるファイル(4)

  • SKILL.md3.1 KB
  • references/knowledge-frameworks.md814 B
  • references/modes.md716 B
  • references/wsp-methodology.md8.6 KB

SKILL.md(原文)

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Defaults

ParameterDefault ValueRationale
lookback_quarters8Captures full rate cycle from hiking to cutting
key_indicatorsfed_funds, 2s10s_spread, dot_plot, inflation_breakevensCore rate cycle indicators

Preflight

Run canonical pre-flight per contracts/preflight.md. Include the X-Agentii-Trace header on every tool call per contracts/x-agentii-trace-header.md — carry the _run_id from your first tool result and name yourself (and your parent, if you were spawned).

Data Source Priority

  1. Knowledge entries (L1 rate cycle frameworks) -> 2. search_by_analogue(market_regime: rate-shock) -> 3. Real-time data

Methodology

Retrieval Scope

structured_only

Retrieval Strategy

Query knowledge entries for rate cycle frameworks; query search_by_analogue for historical rate cycles; supplement with real-time data.

Temporal Scope

See frontmatter temporal_scope block.

Tool Allowlist

See frontmatter allowed_tools.

Protocol

  1. Rate Cycle Phase — classify hiking/plateau/cutting/emergency
  2. Yield Curve Analysis — 2s10s spread, 3m10y, breakeven inflation
  3. Framework Application — Taylor Rule, duration management
  4. Analogue Retrieval — past rate cycles matching current phase

Output File

{ticker}/{YYYY-MM-DD_HHMM}_rate-cycle_{affix}.md

Output Structure

  1. Executive Summary — key findings in 2-3 sentences
  2. Core Analysis — applied frameworks with specific evidence
  3. Quantitative Indicators — key metrics and benchmarks
  4. Historical Analogues — matched cases with /v/cases/ citations
  5. Risk Assessment — key risk factors and mitigants
  6. Coverage Gaps — data limitations and degraded flags Rate Cycle Phase 3. Yield Curve Decomposition 4. Central Bank Posture 5. Duration and Curve Positioning 6. Historical Analogues 7. Scenarios

Error Handling

ErrorFallback
No frameworksProceed with standard indicators; flag degraded

Memory Load

See contracts/memory-load.md.

Snapshot

See contracts/snapshot-synthesis.md.

Final Summary (TUI)

Include ### Key Citations block with 0-10 clickable /v/ URLs.

References

  • references/knowledge-frameworks.md
  • contracts/citation-and-memory.md
  • contracts/output-frontmatter-schema.md
  • contracts/memory-load.md
  • contracts/snapshot-synthesis.md
  • contracts/preflight.md

レビュー

まだレビューはありません。使ってみた感想をお寄せください。

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