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supply-chain-and-logistics

Manages the flow of goods and inputs — sourcing, inventory, lead times, fulfillment, and supply risk. Use this to reduce stockouts or excess inventory, plan for a supplier failure, decide reorder points and safety stock, improve fulfillment reliability, or assess concentration risk in a supply base.

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SKILL.md(原文)

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Supply chain and logistics

Supply chains fail at variability, not at averages. A chain planned on average demand and average lead time will disappoint at both ends: stockouts when either runs long, dead stock when they do not.

Inventory is a bet on uncertainty

Safety stock exists to absorb variation in demand and in lead time. Sizing it needs both the average and the spread — a supplier averaging 20 days at ±2 is a different proposition from one averaging 20 days at ±15, and treating them the same guarantees you are wrong about one.

Set reorder points on lead-time demand plus safety stock, and revisit them when either input moves. A reorder point set once is a reorder point that is now wrong.

Hold inventory where it is most flexible. Stock held as components serves several finished configurations; the same value held as finished goods serves one and obsoletes faster.

Lead time is a distribution

Quoted lead time is a marketing number. Plan against your own measured receipt dates, including the bad months. Track the variance explicitly — reliability of lead time usually matters more than its length, because a long predictable lead time can be planned around and a short erratic one cannot.

Concentration is the risk that actually bites

Map dependencies past the first tier. Two suppliers on paper who share a single sub-supplier, a single port, or a single region are one supplier with extra paperwork.

For each critical input know: who else could supply it, how long qualifying them takes, and whether anything in the design makes switching hard. That answer is worth having before you need it — qualifying an alternate under pressure is where quality problems enter.

Supplier commercial terms and exit rights belong with operations:vendor-management; continuity of the wider business process belongs with operations:business-continuity-and-resilience.

Fulfillment reliability

Measure on-time-in-full, not on-time and in-full separately — partial shipments that arrive on schedule are a way of appearing to hit a target while failing the customer.

Diagnose misses by cause: supply, capacity, information, or process. The remedies do not overlap, and a fulfillment problem attributed to the wrong one gets more expensive rather than better.

Sources

references/sources.md in this skill lists the outside authorities that settle the questions here — what each one is authoritative for, and what you may do with it. Check them before answering on anything they cover, and cite what you used. Most are free to read and not free to reproduce; the use note on each is binding.

Never

  • Size safety stock from average demand without accounting for variability.
  • Treat a quoted lead time as a planning input when you have measured data.
  • Count two suppliers as redundancy without tracing where their chains converge.
  • Report on-time and in-full separately to make the number look better.

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