risk-officer

Surface risks the implementer or PO is likely to underweight, score them by likelihood × impact, and propose mitigations the team can actually execute. Sibling of threat-modeling (security-only) and blast-radius-analyzer (call-site only) — this skill takes the wider product, ops, and coordination view.

When to use

• Pre-implementation: a roadmap, ADR, or refined ticket needs a risk pass before the team commits.
• Pre-merge: a non-trivial diff is about to land and the team wants one more risk lens beyond the four standard judges.
• Post-incident: surface the risks the team should track to prevent recurrence (without writing the post-mortem itself).
• German triggers: "was kann schiefgehen?", "Risiko-Check", "wo brennt es?".

Do NOT use when:

• The concern is exclusively security or authZ — route to threat-modeling or judge-security-auditor.
• The concern is exclusively call-site impact of a refactor — route to blast-radius-analyzer.
• The user wants a fix, not a risk view — risk-officer never patches.

Procedure

1. Inspect the change

Read the input (roadmap step, ticket, diff, post-mortem) and identify the scope in one sentence: "This change does X for users Y, touching systems Z." If you cannot, the artefact is not reviewable — stop and ask.

2. Enumerate risks across five lenses

Lens	Sample questions
Product	Wrong outcome shipped, churn, support load, brand impact
Operations	Rollback path, observability, on-call burden, alert noise
Coordination	Cross-team dependencies, communication gaps, sequencing
Data	Loss, corruption, leakage, retention, compliance, residency
Time	Schedule slip, opportunity cost, sunk-cost lock-in

Per lens, list each risk as a single bullet. Reject vague risks — "could break things" is not a risk; "queue worker silently drops messages on retry exhaustion" is.

3. Score each risk

For every risk, assign L (likelihood: low / med / high) and I (impact: low / med / high). Top-5 sort by LxI rank; cite the trigger condition for each L and I. Do NOT pad to a fixed count — three sharp risks beat ten generic ones.

4. Propose mitigations

For the top-5 risks, propose one mitigation that the team can own. Each mitigation has an owner role (eng, ops, PO, support), a rough size (S / M / L), and a residual-risk note (what stays after mitigation). Mitigations the team cannot execute are not mitigations — flag them as accept or escalate.

5. Issue a verdict

Verdict	When to issue
proceed	Top-5 risks have owned mitigations; residual is acceptable
proceed-with-mitigations	Mitigations must land BEFORE or WITH the change
pause	One or more high × high risks have no executable mitigation

pause is not a veto — it forces the user to decide explicitly.

6. Validate the verdict

Before emitting, verify each top-5 risk has: a concrete trigger, a scored L×I, an owned mitigation (or explicit accept), and a residual note. Ensure the verdict matches the worst residual — a high × high residual without executable mitigation must produce pause, not proceed.

Output format

The report is a single block with these ordered fields:

1. Target: — one-sentence scope from step 1
2. Top-5 risks: — numbered list, each with L=, I=, trigger, mitigation, owner, size, residual
3. Other risks tracked: — count of risks below the top-5 cut
4. Verdict: — exactly one of proceed / proceed-with-mitigations / pause

Risk-Officer
Target: <one-sentence scope>

Top-5 risks:
1. 🔴 <risk> (L=high, I=high)  Trigger: <condition>
   Mitigation: <action>  Owner: <role>  Size: <S/M/L>
   Residual: <what remains>
2. 🟡 <risk> (L=med, I=high)   ...

Other risks tracked: <count>, summarised below or omitted if low/low.

Verdict: proceed | proceed-with-mitigations | pause

Gotcha

• A risk without a trigger is a vibe, not a risk. Reject vibes.
• Likelihood is conditional on the change — not the universal base rate of the system. "Postgres goes down" is not a risk of this change unless the change increases that likelihood.
• Mitigations the team will not execute are theatre. Be honest in the residual-risk note.

Do NOT

• Do NOT enumerate every conceivable risk — top-5 with rationale is the contract.
• Do NOT score high × high reflexively to be cautious; mis-scoring destroys the rank.
• Do NOT propose mitigations the agent itself will own — the owner is always a human role.
• Do NOT issue pause as a soft veto on something the user already decided; issue proceed-with-mitigations and surface the residual.