macro-exposure

Follow CLAUDE.md Writing Standards strictly. Lead with the bet and its direction, no hedge words, tables over prose.

Surface the implicit macro bets inside one thesis — the macro variables the position is levered to whether or not the thesis names them. The output is the atom the portfolio-macro-exposure workflow fans out to find portfolio-wide concentration in a single macro variable dressed up as diversification.

Arguments

$ARGUMENTS = a ticker or thesis name. If empty, ask which thesis.

Read-only

This skill REPORTS analysis; it does not modify vault files. To persist, the user asks explicitly.

Mental Models gate (MANDATORY — CLAUDE.md)

Read [[Mental Models/Generalist - Overview]] + matching Industry -/Lens - files. Apply the READING PROTOCOL and run the base-rate / outside view adversarially: a macro bet the thesis treats as a sure thing is exactly where the outside view should attack.

Method (single source of truth — the portfolio-macro-exposure workflow reads this section)

1. Read the thesis + skim Related Research and any linked Macro & Technology/ notes. Read _graph.md once for sector/cluster context.
2. Extract each macro variable the bull case needs, from a standard palette (extend as the thesis warrants): AI / datacenter capex, interest rates, USD / FX, China market access & export controls, the memory / HBM cycle, energy & power availability, fiscal / stimulus, regulatory regime, consumer / enterprise IT spend.
3. For each, record: direction (thesis needs it up / down / stable), magnitude (load-bearing / contributory / minor), horizon (already priced / 6–18mo / structural), and stated vs unstated (named in the thesis or a hidden assumption).
4. Flag the single biggest unstated macro bet — the variable the thesis is most exposed to but least explicit about. That hidden bet is where correlated portfolio risk accumulates.

Output (solo run)

A macro-bet table — columns: Macro variable | Direction | Magnitude | Horizon | Stated? | Transmission (how it hits the thesis) — then one line naming the biggest unstated bet. No filler.

Workflow reuse

portfolio-macro-exposure (.claude/workflows/portfolio-macro-exposure.js) fans this ## Method out across every thesis, then aggregates into a concentration view: which single macro variable the largest share of bull cases (weighted by conviction) depend on. Keep ## Method the single source of truth.