scenario

Map the impact of a macro scenario across every thesis, sector, and position in the vault.

Design rationale in .claude/skills/scenario/RATIONALE.md (§N.M anchors).

Arguments

Two modes:

Forward (default): $ARGUMENTS describes the scenario (e.g., "Fed cuts 150bps", "China invades Taiwan", "oil spikes to $150"). Empty → ask user.

Reverse: $ARGUMENTS starts with reverse + scenario research note identifier — wikilink, path, or partial-name:

• /scenario reverse [[Research/2026-04-19 - Scenario - Fed cut]]
• /scenario reverse Research/2026-04-19 - Scenario - Fed cut.md
• /scenario reverse Fed cut (resolves via grep)

Reverse mode appends Scenario REVERSED Log entry (registry §14) to every thesis previously affected. Scenario research note not deleted — preserved as historical record per Tier 2 append-only convention (§8). Provides audit-trail-preserving undo path.

Optional scope (forward mode; 2026-07-08): a trailing --sector "<name>" or --tickers <A,B,C> flag narrows the analysis to a subset for a narrow hypothesis, avoiding the full-portfolio read cost. Everything before the flag is the scenario description.

• /scenario oil spikes to $150 --sector "@LNG & Natural Gas Infrastructure"
• /scenario HBM4 yield miss --tickers 000660,MU,SNDK
• Parse: strip a trailing --sector "<name>" (resolve via _shared/sector-resolution.md; the Sectors/ note's Active Theses list + reverse index give the member set) or --tickers <csv> (each token → Theses/TICKER - *.md). No flag → whole portfolio (default). Unresolvable scope → warn and ask before falling back to whole-portfolio. The scope narrows the Phase 2 read set ONLY; the lock stays vault-wide and Phase 4 second-order reasoning still spans the whole portfolio via _graph.md (a scoped scenario can still name out-of-scope beneficiaries — they just don't receive Log propagation). Rationale: RATIONALE §6.4.

Matches reverse → jump to Reverse Mode Flow. Otherwise → Phase 1 (carry the resolved scope, if any, into Phase 2).

Phase 0: Pre-flight

0.1: Acquire vault lock

vault-wide scope per .claude/skills/_shared/preflight.md Procedure 1. Timeout 10 min. Capture token, verify (Procedure 1.5) every subsequent block, release in final.

0.2: Vault-wide rename marker check (§7)

Glob .rename_incomplete.*. ANY marker → hard-block. All-or-nothing — cannot safely skip individual mid-rename tickers.

---

Reverse Mode Flow

Skip Phases 1-6. Separate bounded operation.

R1: Locate scenario research note

1. Parse argument (wikilink, path, or partial name).
2. Wikilink/path → read directly. Validate exists under Research/ with source_type: scenario.
3. Partial name → glob Research/*Scenario*.md, grep frontmatter for source_type: scenario. Match filename or "Scenario - [name]" portion. Multiple → present list, ask user. None → ❌ No scenario research note matching '[partial]' found in Research/. Stop.
4. Read resolved note in full.

R2: Identify previously-affected theses (archive-aware — §1)

Union of two source-of-truth sets:

• propagated_to: frontmatter: every listed ticker received Major-impact Log entry from original run.
• Body wikilinks: [[Theses/TICKER - Name]] in "Related Notes" or body (Major or Minor exposure).

Three-phase parallel batch pattern — previously a per-ticker Glob→Read→Grep serial loop; now two parallel batches with one reasoning step between.

R2.1: Resolve current location (single parallel Glob batch)

Issue ALL Globs in ONE parallel tool-call batch — for every candidate ticker, fire BOTH Glob Theses/TICKER - *.md and Glob _Archive/TICKER - *.md in the same message. For N candidates this is 2N Globs in one round-trip instead of 2N serial rounds.

After the batch returns, classify each ticker from the Glob results alone (no file reads yet):

• Theses match → location = "theses", capture live path.
• Archive match only → location = "archive", capture archive path.
• Neither → location = "missing" → add to R6 report under "Candidate skipped — thesis file not found": "[TICKER] was listed in propagated_to or body wikilinks but its file is not in Theses/ or _Archive/. Was it manually deleted?". Do NOT include in R2.2.

Partition remaining candidates into live_candidates: [ticker, path] and archive_candidates: [ticker, path].

R2.2: Read Log sections (single parallel Read batch)

Issue ALL Reads in ONE parallel tool-call batch — every live_candidates path AND every archive_candidates path Read in the same message. For M remaining candidates this is M Reads in one round-trip instead of M serial rounds.

R2.3: Classify from read content (pure reasoning, no tool calls)

For each archive_candidates entry: inspect the archived thesis's ## Log to confirm original Scenario entry exists (audit completeness for R6). Add to archive_skipped_theses: {ticker, archived_path, archive_date, had_scenario_entry: bool} (§1.1 — Tier 3 protection). Do NOT modify archived file.

For each live_candidates entry: inspect the thesis's ## Log section:

• Search for Scenario [[Research/...scenario-name...]] entry → match_scenario_entry: bool
• Search for Scenario REVERSED [[Research/...scenario-name...]] entry → match_reversed_entry: bool

Classify (§2.4):

• match_scenario_entry == false → exclude (body-wikilinked but never received producer entry; nothing to reverse). Log: ℹ️ Skipped [TICKER] — no original Scenario Log entry found.
• match_scenario_entry == true AND match_reversed_entry == true → exclude (already reversed — §2.1). Log: ℹ️ Skipped [TICKER] — Scenario REVERSED entry already exists for this scenario.
• match_scenario_entry == true AND match_reversed_entry == false → add to affected_theses_live: [ticker] with original Scenario entry's date.

Net round-trips: ≤3 (one Glob batch + one Read batch + reasoning), down from ~3N on a large reversal set (~60+ rounds previously for 20 candidates).

R3: Confirm reverse intent (Tier 3 — Mandatory)

Proposed scenario reversal:
  Scenario: [[Research/YYYY-MM-DD - Scenario - Name]]
  Originally propagated: [N] theses
  Will append "Scenario REVERSED" Log entry to: [list of affected_theses_live with dates]

  Rationale (required): [user provides one-line reason]

  This does NOT delete the scenario research note (preserved as history).
  This does NOT remove the original "Scenario" Log entries (Tier 2 append-only).
  Each affected thesis will receive a single new Log entry signaling reversal.

  /sync drift detection (Step 3e) treats "Scenario REVERSED" as drift-exclusion
  per _shared/log-prefixes.md §14.

Confirm? (y/n)

Wait for user confirmation AND rationale text. Declined → exit.

R4: Append reversal Log entries (live theses only)

Iterate affected_theses_live ONLY — never touch archive_skipped_theses (Tier 3).

Per live affected thesis, append (max 2 lines per CLAUDE.md):

### YYYY-MM-DD
- Scenario REVERSED [[Research/YYYY-MM-DD - Scenario - Name]]: original propagation withdrawn — [user rationale]. Original "Scenario" entry on [original-date] remains as historical record per Tier 2.

Prefix "Scenario REVERSED" — /sync Step 3e drift-exclusion (registry §14). Do not change without updating registry + /sync; /lint #29 flags drift.

Failure handling + atomicity tracking (§2.3): track reverse_succeeded: [tickers] and reverse_failed: [tickers, reason]. Do NOT abort on individual append failure; continue and report in R6.

R4.5: Document archive-skipped theses in scenario research note body (§1.2)

For each entry in archive_skipped_theses from R2, append under ## Reversal Notes in scenario research note body (create section if absent):

## Reversal Notes

### YYYY-MM-DD — Reversal applied
- Live theses with REVERSED Log entry: [list from reverse_succeeded]
- Archived theses not touched (Tier 3 archive protection):
  - [[_Archive/TICKER - Name]] — archived YYYY-MM-DD (prior to reversal date). Original Scenario Log entry preserved in archive. [rationale: user_rationale from R3]
  - ...

Symmetry with forward-mode's body-wikilink audit trail.

R5: Update _hot.md

Per .claude/skills/_shared/hot-md-contract.md (do NOT touch Latest Sync / Sync Archive):

1. Active Research Thread: append dated line YYYY-MM-DD: REVERSED scenario "[name]" across [N] theses — [user rationale]. Do NOT compress prior thread (corrective action, not new direction).
2. Recent Conviction Changes: add - Scenario REVERSED: [[Research/...scenario-name]] across [N] theses — [user rationale].
3. Open Questions: if original scenario added questions, surface with strikethrough: - ~~[original question]~~ → Resolved YYYY-MM-DD: scenario reversed.

Word cap: standard 8,000 soft-cap check per _shared/hot-md-contract.md; prune Sync Archive (oldest first) if over; abort _hot.md update if over 10,000 hard cap.

R6: Report

• Mode: reverse
• Scenario: [[Research/YYYY-MM-DD - Scenario - Name]] (preserved on disk — not deleted)
• Theses with reversal Log entry appended (this run): [count] — [list of reverse_succeeded]
• Theses skipped — already reversed in prior run: [count] — [list from R2 classifier]. No-op; idempotent.
• Theses skipped — no original Scenario Log entry: [count] — [list]. Body wikilinks only; nothing to reverse.
• Theses skipped — archived after scenario (Tier 3 protected): [count] — [list from archive_skipped_theses with archive_date]. Original Scenario Log entries preserved in archive. Documented in scenario note body under ## Reversal Notes (R4.5).
• Candidates skipped — file missing: [list of tickers where file not in Theses/ OR _Archive/]. In propagated_to or body wikilinks but file not on disk. Likely manually deleted — investigate.
• Failed appends (this run): [list of reverse_failed with reasons]. To retry: re-run /scenario reverse [same scenario] — R2 classifier excludes succeeded, retries still-failing only (§2.3).
• _hot.md updated: Active Research Thread + Recent Conviction Changes + Open Questions (if applicable)
• No graph impact — Log appends only.
• Follow-up: → Run /graph last to register the (already-changed-mtime) thesis files in incremental adjacency. /status changes (if any conviction was reversed alongside) are separate operations the user must run explicitly.

Stop here. Do not continue to forward mode.

---

Forward Mode (Phases 1-6)

Phase 1: Define the Scenario

• State scenario precisely with quantitative parameters where possible
• Identify primary transmission channels: rates, FX, commodity prices, supply chains, demand destruction, regulatory, sentiment, capital flows
• Set time horizon (default: 6 months)
• Market-pricing calibration (MANDATORY before the probability estimate). Do NOT set a probability in a vacuum — the vault's own view is not a market. Issue at least one WebSearch (WebFetch a source if the snippet is thin) for what the market currently implies about this scenario: relevant futures/forwards (Fed funds futures, oil/gas forwards, FX forwards), option-implied probabilities or skew, credit spreads, or analyst/economist consensus odds. Then state the estimate as a variant to the market: market implies ~X%; I estimate ~Y% because Z. If Y ≈ X, the scenario is priced and the exercise is a hedge-check, not an edge; if Y materially differs, name the single datapoint that resolves who is right. If no market proxy exists (genuinely un-priced tail), say so explicitly — that absence is itself information.
• Historical analogs (base-rate discipline, READING PROTOCOL). Cite 1-2 concrete historical analogs for this scenario class (e.g. 2018 Fed tightening, 2011 Fukushima supply shock, 2022 Nord Stream) and what actually happened to comparable positions — the outside view the impact classification must beat. A scenario with no analog is either genuinely novel (flag it) or under-specified.

Phase 2: Read the Portfolio (Two-Pass Triage — §6)

Pass 1 — Full-read scan (single parallel batch)

Thesis read set: unscoped → every Theses/*.md. Scoped (--sector/--tickers from Arguments) → only the resolved member theses (still full-read each — scope narrows which theses, never how much of each; §6.4).

Mental Models reading gate (MANDATORY — CLAUDE.md; _shared/mental-models-section.md). A scenario is a second/third-order transmission exercise — exactly what the models are for. Add to the Pass-1 batch: [[Mental Models/Generalist - Overview]] (always) + the [[Mental Models/Industry - X]] for the sectors the scenario transmits through + any [[Mental Models/Lens - X]] in play. Apply the READING PROTOCOL when classifying impact: each exposure read is a hypothesis; run the base-rate adversarially (most macro scenarios are priced faster than they transmit); where the models agree a name is exposed, look for the hedge/offset that makes it survive.

Issue ALL of these in ONE parallel tool-call batch:

1. Read every Macro note in full (small set, highest scenario relevance) — one Read per macro, all in one message. (Always all macros — macro notes are the primary scenario-transmission surface even for a sector-scoped run.)
2. Read _graph.md for portfolio topology and cross-thesis clusters (needed for Phase 4 whole-portfolio second-order reasoning even when scoped), plus [[Mental Models/Generalist - Overview]] + the in-scope Industry/Lens files (reading gate above).
3. Read each in-scope Theses/*.md in full — one Read per thesis, all in the SAME parallel batch as steps 1-2. Do NOT pre-extract sections via Bash+awk: scenario exposure classification depends on full-thesis signal (a transmission channel may surface in Bull Case, Industry Context, Risks, or Non-consensus Insights — not just Summary). Full-file context preserves classification quality; the parallel-batch pattern keeps wall-clock cost at one round-trip regardless of set size.

Typical unscoped batch: ~6 macro Reads + 1 graph Read + ~42 thesis Reads = ~49 Reads in one message. A --tickers 000660,MU,SNDK run is ~6 + 1 + 3 = ~10 Reads — same one round-trip, a fraction of the read budget.

Pass 2 — Triage and deep read (no additional reads needed)

Because Pass 1 already loaded every thesis in full, Pass 2 is pure reasoning over the already-loaded content:

4. Using full-thesis content + macro context + Phase 1 transmission channels, classify each thesis (§6.2):

   • High exposure: direct transmission channel — thesis body already in context, proceed directly to Phase 3 impact assessment.
   • Low exposure: indirect or second-order only — thesis body already in context, proceed directly to Phase 3.
   • No exposure: no plausible transmission — mark Neutral in Phase 3.

5. Sector-note reads (parallel batch) — the only additional reads needed in Pass 2 are sector notes for sectors with ≥1 High-exposure thesis (supplies competitive-dynamics and value-chain context for second/third-order effect reasoning in Phase 4). Issue all qualifying sector note Reads as a single parallel tool-call batch — typically 3-8 sector notes landing in one round-trip.

Pass 2 cost: one round-trip for sector notes (no additional thesis reads — Pass 1 loaded them all in full).

Phase 3: First-Order Impact Assessment

Per thesis (all, including No-exposure as Neutral):

Ticker	Company	Conviction	Direct Impact	Magnitude	Transmission Channel	Key Assumption at Risk
		[H/M/L]	[Positive/Negative/Neutral]	[Major/Minor]	[How scenario affects this position]	[Which bull/bear assumption is tested]

Sort by magnitude of impact (major negatives first).

Phase 4: Second and Third-Order Effects

Highest-value phase — trace cascades:

Supply chain cascades: If Company A is disrupted, who loses a critical supplier? Who gains? Single points of failure in documented value chains?

Demand substitution: If one product/sector suffers, where does demand rotate? Which theses are on the receiving end?

Relative winners within sectors: Within each affected sector, who gains market share? Does the scenario accelerate or decelerate competitive dynamics already documented?

Funding, valuation, sentiment: How do multiples compress or expand? Does risk-off hit some harder due to liquidity, positioning, narrative fragility?

Portfolio correlations revealed: Which positions appear diversified but are actually correlated under this scenario? Effective concentration after scenario-driven correlation?

Phase 5: Portfolio-Level Assessment

• Net portfolio impact: directional estimate + rough magnitude
• Worst-case cluster: which 3-4 theses get hit simultaneously and hardest?
• Concentration risk exposed: scenario reveal hidden concentration?
• Natural hedges: positions that offset each other under this scenario?
• Hedge gaps: what would protect portfolio but isn't currently held?
• Opportunities created: dislocations that become new thesis candidates?

Phase 6: Output

Phase ordering (§5.1): 6.1.5 → 6.1 → 6.2 → 6.3. If user cancels at 6.1.5, no research note written (§3.2).

6.1.5: Classification approval gate (§3 — Mandatory)

Before any Log append, present Phase 3 classification matrix for explicit review. Catches false-negative Majors (silent miss) and false-positive Majors (reversible only via /scenario reverse).

Scenario propagation about to begin. Review classification before Log appends land:

Major-impact theses — WILL receive Log entries ([N]):
  - [TICKER1] ([Company]): [transmission channel] — [impact direction + magnitude rationale]
  - [TICKER2] ([Company]): ...

Minor-impact theses — will NOT receive Log entries ([M]):
  - [TICKER_a] ([Company]): [weak transmission rationale]
  - [TICKER_b] ([Company]): ...

Neutral — no exposure identified ([K]):
  - [TICKER_x], [TICKER_y], ... (collapsed listing)

Options:
  (a) Approve — proceed with Log appends to listed Major-impact theses
  (b) Promote — move specific Minor-impact or Neutral theses to Major (provide comma-separated list)
  (c) Demote — downgrade specific Major-impact theses to Minor (provide comma-separated list)
  (d) Cancel — research note NOT written, no propagation

Confirm (a/b/c/d):

Branch behavior (§3.4):

• (a): proceed to 6.1 with current Major-impact set.
• (b) Promote: user supplies tickers. Merge into Major set. Per promoted ticker, user supplies one-line rationale (required) replacing auto-generated Phase 3 rationale in Log entry. Re-present for final (a) approval.
• (c) Demote: user supplies tickers. Remove from Major; add to Minor. Re-present for final (a) approval.
• (d): exit silently. Research note NOT written. No vault changes.

Do NOT proceed silently past 6.1.5. Mandatory for forward mode; reverse mode (R3) has its own confirmation.

6.1: Write the research note

Only runs after Phase 6.1.5 approval.

Save to Research/YYYY-MM-DD - Scenario - [Short Scenario Name].md:

---
date: YYYY-MM-DD
tags: [research, scenario, macro]
source: vault synthesis
source_type: scenario
# propagated_to: omitted intentionally — set in Phase 6.3 only after all Major-impact Log appends succeed
---

Sections:

1. Scenario Definition (parameters, channels, time horizon, market-implied pricing market implies ~X% / I estimate ~Y% because Z, and the 1-2 historical analogs from Phase 1)
2. Impact Matrix (Phase 3 table)
3. Second-Order Effects (Phase 4 narrative)
4. Portfolio Assessment (Phase 5)
5. Recommended Actions (specific hedges, position adjustments, research priorities)
6. Confirmation Triggers — 2-3 dated, observable signposts that would confirm the scenario is actually materializing (not hypothetical). Format each as [observable + threshold] by [date] → scenario confirmed/escalating. This is the monitoring hook: a scenario note without it is a one-time thought experiment; with it, the user (and /catalyst) can track whether the tail is arriving. Example: Front-month Brent > $110 sustained 2 weeks by 2026-09 → supply-shock leg confirmed. Prefer signposts that are cheap to observe and unambiguous.
7. Related Notes (wikilinks to all theses and macro notes referenced)

6.2: Append Log entries to all Major-impact theses

For each Major-impact thesis AND approved at 6.1.5, attempt Log append (max 2 lines):

### YYYY-MM-DD
- Scenario [[Research/YYYY-MM-DD - Scenario - Short Name]]: [impact direction via transmission channel] — conviction [unchanged/strengthened/weakened + reason]

For each that received Log entry, add scenario to ## Related Research (if not already present):

- [[Research/YYYY-MM-DD - Scenario - Short Name]]

Track outcomes per ticker: maintain succeeded: [tickers] and failed: [tickers, reason]. Failure = Log append Edit failed (file locked, missing ## Log section, malformed frontmatter). Do NOT abort loop on single failure — continue attempting remaining Major targets.

6.3: Atomicity rule for propagated_to: (§4)

Update research note's propagated_to: frontmatter only after EVERY Major-impact thesis's Log entry has landed successfully.

• All appends succeeded (failed: empty): edit research note frontmatter → add propagated_to: [TICKER1, TICKER2, ...]. Signals to subsequent /sync that producer-side propagation is complete; /sync Case 2b skips as already-propagated.
• One or more failed (failed: non-empty): do NOT write propagated_to: at all. Leave field absent. Next /sync detects each Major-impact thesis via file-direct fallback (research note body wikilinks every Major under "Related Notes"), checks per-thesis idempotency (wikilink-presence in Log), re-attempts append for failed targets.

Why never partial (§4.1-§4.2): partial propagated_to: would claim failed-target tickers as propagated when their Log entries never landed → permanent audit gap → future /sync silently skips. All-or-nothing trades minor /sync re-work for guaranteed eventual consistency.

Per-failure reporting: list every failed ticker in Phase 7 report under Major-impact Log appends — failed: [TICKER1 (reason), TICKER2 (reason)].

_hot.md update

Per .claude/skills/_shared/hot-md-contract.md (do NOT touch Latest Sync / Sync Archive):

1. Active Research Thread: same-ticker continuation per contract. Write: scenario modelled ([short name]), top 3 exposed positions, single most important action.
2. Recent Conviction Changes: add entry per ticker where conviction was strengthened or weakened.
3. Open Questions: add research questions scenario exposed (unquantified exposures, missing hedges).

Word cap: after edits, total >8,000 (soft cap per _shared/hot-md-contract.md) → prune ## Sync Archive (oldest first) then *Previous:* lines. Abort if over 10,000 hard cap.

Graph update deferred: _graph.md owned exclusively by /graph. Run /graph last to register scenario research note and new cross-thesis correlations.

Phase 7: Report

1. Top 3 most exposed positions with transmission channel.
2. Biggest beneficiary with rationale.
3. Single most important action to take now.
4. Major-impact propagation status:
   • Major-impact theses propagated: [N] of [M] (succeeded list)
   • propagated_to: frontmatter — set (all succeeded) | omitted (one or more appends failed — next /sync will retry)
   • Failed appends (only if any): [TICKER1 (reason), TICKER2 (reason)]
5. Follow-up: → Run /sync to propagate to minor-impact theses and retry any failed Major appends. Then /graph last.