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china-returns-analysis

IRR and MOIC analysis for China-focused private equity and investment funds. Adapted from the original returns-analysis skill for RMB/USD fund structures, China market conventions, and Chinese portfolio companies. Triggers on "A股基金回报", "IRR分析", "returns China", "MOIC analysis China", "基金业绩分析", or "portfolio returns review".

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china-returns-analysis

Purpose

Analyze and report on 中国私募基金回报表现 using IRR, MOIC, and related metrics.

Key Metrics

Core Metrics (Same as Global)

MetricFormulaBenchmark
IRR (Internal Rate of Return)Discounted cash flow rate15-20%+ for top China PE
MOIC (Multiple on Invested Capital)Total returned / Total invested2.0-3.0x typical
TVPI (Total Value to Paid-In)(Distributed + NAV) / Paid-in>2.0x target
DPI (Distributed to Paid-In)Distributions / Paid-in0.5-1.0x early stage
RVPI (Residual Value to Paid-In)NAV / Paid-in>1.0x for active funds

China-Specific Metrics

MetricDescriptionBenchmark
人民币IRRReturns in CNY12-18% for quality funds
美元IRRReturns in USD (hedged/unhedged)15-25%
项目回报Per-investment IRR/MOIC20-30% IRR target
基金回报Fund-level IRRTop quartile: 20%+
现金回款Distributions receivedAnnual yield target

Data Sources (Multi-Tier)

Tier 0 — 万得 Wind(最全面付费数据)

  • 覆盖:A股/港美股/基金/指数/债券/宏观/研报/分析(44个工具)
  • MCP 服务:wind-mcp(需 WIND_API_KEY 密钥,以 ak_ 开头)
  • 优势:全市场覆盖面最广、数据最全面、包含研报和量化分析
  • 密钥申请:https://aifinmarket.wind.com.cn/#/home

Tier 1 - iFind (paid)

When IFIND_AUTH_TOKEN is configured, iFind is the preferred data source. For equivalent iFind tools, see china-market-data skill.

Primary Sources

DataSourceNotes
基金估值报告Fund administratorMonthly/quarterly NAV
投资项目数据Portfolio company reportsFinancials, valuations
交易文件Investment agreementsDeal terms, waterfalls
清科 / 投中Industry dataBenchmark comparisons

Secondary Sources

  • 巨潮 — public portfolio company filings
  • AkShare — market data for public holdings
  • 交易所 — trading data

Workflow

Step 1: Fund-Level Summary

Fund overview table:

FundVintageSize (亿)CommittedCalledDistributedNAVTVPIIRR
Fund I201830
Fund II202150

Step 2: Portfolio-Level Analysis

By investment:

InvestmentDateCost (亿)Fair Value (亿)MOICIRRStatus
Active / Exited / Written off

Step 3: Vintage Analysis

Vintage year performance:

VintageIRRMOIC# Deals# ExitsTVPI

Benchmark comparison:

  • vs 沪深300
  • vs 中国PE/VC指数 (if available)
  • vs peer fund performance

Step 4: Sector Analysis

Returns by sector:

SectorInvested (亿)Realized (亿)NAV (亿)MOICIRR
半导体
新能源
医药
消费

Step 5: J-Curve Analysis

Typical China PE J-curve:

  • Year 0-2: Negative DPI (capital called, no distributions)
  • Year 3-5: DPI starts building
  • Year 5-7: MOIC > 1.0x
  • Year 7+: Strong distributions

Step 6: Sensitivity Analysis

Sensitivity on key assumptions:

Variable-20%-10%Base+10%+20%
Exit multiple
EBITDA growth
Time to exit

China-Specific Considerations

Fund Structures

StructureDescriptionCommon Use
人民币基金 (RMB fund)Domestic currencyOnshore investments
美元基金 (USD fund)Offshore currencyCross-border, tech
双语基金 (Dual currency)Both RMB and USDFlexible allocation
母基金 (Fund of funds)FoF structureDiversified access

Return Expectations

Fund TypeIRR TargetMOIC TargetHold Period
VC (种子/早期)30-40%5-10x5-8 years
Growth equity20-30%3-5x4-7 years
Buyout15-25%2-4x4-7 years
Distressed20-30%2-5x3-5 years

Exit Routes

RouteDescriptionTypical TimelineMultiple
A股IPOIPO on A-share market5-8 years from investment3-10x
并购退出Trade sale to strategic3-6 years2-5x
老股转让Secondary sale3-5 years1.5-3x
借壳上市Reverse merger3-5 years2-6x
回购Sponsor/management buyback5-8 years1.5-2.5x
基金份额转让Fund secondaryOngoing0.7-1.2x NAV

Benchmark Indices

IndexDescription
沪深300Broad A-share market
中证1000Small-cap A-share
中国PE/VC指数PE/VC performance index
清科指数Zero2IPO index
投中指数CVSource index

Quality Checks

Before delivering:

  • All cash flows documented
  • IRR/MOIC calculations verified
  • Benchmark comparisons included
  • Sector analysis complete
  • Vintage analysis included
  • J-curve position clear
  • Sensitivities run

Data Source Mode Switch: Set env var IFIND_DATA_SOURCE_MODE to control data source preference.

  • ifind-only (strict): Use iFind only, error if unavailable
  • ifind-fallback (default): iFind preferred, fallback to AkShare
  • akshare-only: Skip iFind, use AkShare only

レビュー

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