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china-roll-forward

Roll forward A-share financial models for new periods. Adapts the original roll-forward skill for Chinese financial statements, CAS conventions, and A-share reporting calendars. Triggers on "A股模型滚动", "模型更新", "roll forward model China", "roll forward", "更新财务模型", or "project [company] [period]".

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china-roll-forward

Purpose

Roll forward A股财务模型 — update financial models for new reporting periods.

Data Sources

Primary: iFind MCP (Tier-1 付费) / AkShare MCP (Tier-2 免费备选)

get_financials(ticker, "income")     → Latest actuals
get_financials(ticker, "balance")    → Latest BS
get_financials(ticker, "cashflow")   → Latest CF

Secondary Sources

  • 巨潮 — latest filings
  • 业绩预告 — early guidance
  • 券商研报 — updated estimates

Workflow

Step 1: Identify New Period

Period identification:

Period TypeFrequencyTypical Timing
一季报 (Q1)QuarterlyApril 30 deadline
中报 (H1)Semi-annualAugust 31 deadline
三季报 (Q3)QuarterlyOctober 31 deadline
年报 (Annual)AnnualApril 30 deadline

Calendar:

Q1: 1月1日 - 3月31日 → 披露截止 4月30日
H1: 1月1日 - 6月30日 → 披露截止 8月31日
Q3: 1月1日 - 9月30日 → 披露截止 10月31日
FY: 1月1日 - 12月31日 → 披露截止 次年4月30日

Step 2: Pull Latest Actuals

Data to pull:

StatementKey Line Items
利润表Revenue, gross profit, operating profit, net income
资产负债表Cash, AR, inventory, PPE, debt, equity
现金流量表OCF, investing CF, financing CF
附注Segment data, related party, provisions

Step 3: Update Model Structure

Model update checklist:

SectionAction
HistoricalsReplace with latest actuals
QTD dataAdd new period actuals
YTD dataUpdate year-to-date
LTM dataRecalculate LTM
Growth ratesRecalculate YoY/QoQ
RatiosRecalculate all ratios
GraphsUpdate charts

Step 4: Validate Actuals

Actuals validation:

CheckMethod
报表平衡Assets = Liabilities + Equity
勾稽关系CF = ΔCash
季度加总Q1+Q2+Q3+Q4 = Annual
同比计算(Current - Prior) / Prior
环比率(Current - Qprior) / Qprior

Common CAS adjustments:

  • 增值税处理 (Revenue net of VAT)
  • 政府补助分类 (Operating vs non-operating)
  • 研发费用 (Separate from G&A)
  • 信用减值损失 (CAS 22 expected credit loss)

Step 5: Update Forecasts

Forecast update logic:

ScenarioAction
In-lineNo change to full-year forecast
BeatAssess if full-year guidance should be raised
MissAssess if full-year guidance should be lowered
Guidance changeUpdate model for management guidance

Forecast roll-forward:

PeriodPriorActualNew ForecastChange
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Full year

Step 6: Update Valuation

Valuation update:

InputPriorCurrentChange
Current price
Shares outstanding
Market cap
P/E (NTM)
P/B
EV/EBITDA
Target price
Upside/downside

Step 7: Update Narrative

Narrative updates:

SectionUpdate
Investment thesisReview and update
Key driversReflect latest results
CatalystsUpdate timeline
RisksReview and update
Target priceUpdate with new base

Step 8: Quality Checks

Roll-forward QC:

CheckPass Criteria
All actuals pulledAll periods updated
Sum checks passQuarterly = Annual
Ratios recalculatedAll formulas updated
Graphs updatedAll charts reflect new data
Valuation currentTarget price updated
No hardcodesAll cells formula-driven
CAS compliantChinese conventions applied

China-Specific Roll-Forward Considerations

Reporting Calendar

FilingDeadlineTypical Release
业绩预告 (optional)Before filing10-15 days before
一季报April 30April
中报August 31August
三季报October 31October
年报April 30Late March-April

Common Update Triggers

TriggerAction
Scheduled earningsFull model update
业绩预告Preliminary forecast update
Guidance changeUpdate full-year forecast
M&A announcementModel for transaction impact
Policy changeSector/company impact
Analyst dayUpdate long-term assumptions

Quality Checks

Before completing:

  • Latest actuals pulled and entered
  • All historical periods updated
  • Forecasts rolled forward
  • Valuation updated
  • Sum checks pass
  • No hardcodes introduced
  • Documentation updated

Data Source Mode Switch: Set env var IFIND_DATA_SOURCE_MODE to control data source preference.

  • ifind-only (strict): Use iFind only, error if unavailable
  • ifind-fallback (default): iFind preferred, fallback to AkShare
  • akshare-only, wind-only (Wind only), wind-fallback (Wind first, fallback to iFind → AkShare): Skip iFind, use AkShare only

レビュー

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