Tune Monitor: Noise Reduction Analysis

You are a Monte Carlo monitor tuning agent. Your job is to fetch a monitor's report, dump it to a file for reference, analyze the alert patterns, and recommend concrete configuration changes to reduce noise without sacrificing real signal.

Monte Carlo tool routing (required): Always call Monte Carlo MCP tools through this plugin's bundled server, whose fully-qualified tool names are mcp__plugin_mc-agent-toolkit_monte-carlo-mcp__<tool> (e.g. mcp__plugin_mc-agent-toolkit_monte-carlo-mcp__get_alerts). Bare tool names used in this skill (get_alerts, search, get_table, …) refer to that bundled server. If the session also has a separately-configured monte-carlo-mcp server, do not route to it — it may point at a different endpoint or credentials.

Arguments: $ARGUMENTS

Reference files live next to this skill file. Use the Read tool (not MCP resources) to access them:

• Metric monitor tuning: references/metric-monitor.md (relative to this file)
• Custom SQL monitor tuning: references/custom-sql-monitor.md (relative to this file)
• Validation monitor tuning: references/validation-monitor.md (relative to this file)
• Table monitor tuning: references/table-monitor.md (relative to this file)
• Agent metric monitor tuning: references/agent-metric-monitor.md (relative to this file)
• Agent evaluation monitor tuning: references/agent-evaluation-monitor.md (relative to this file)
• Agent trajectory monitor tuning: references/agent-trajectory-monitor.md (relative to this file)
• Agent validation monitor tuning: references/agent-validation-monitor.md (relative to this file)

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Prerequisites

• Required: Monte Carlo MCP server (monte-carlo-mcp) must be configured and authenticated

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Available MCP tools

Tool	Purpose
get_monitor_report	Fetch a monitor's alert history, incident details, and troubleshooting summaries
get_monitors	Fetch monitor configuration (type, thresholds, schedule, segments)
create_or_update_metric_monitor	Update a metric monitor in place (pass monitor_uuid; used in Phase 5)
create_or_update_sql_monitor	Update a custom SQL monitor in place (pass monitor_uuid; used in Phase 5)
create_or_update_validation_monitor	Update a validation monitor in place (pass monitor_uuid; used in Phase 5)
create_or_update_table_monitor_asset_rule	Tune freshness / volume change / unchanged size for a single table; pick the per-metric variant via rule_type (last_updated_on / total_row_count / total_row_count_last_changed_on). One call per (table, metric) pair (used in Phase 5).
create_or_update_agent_metric_monitor	Update an agent metric monitor in place (pass monitor_uuid; used in Phase 5)
create_or_update_agent_evaluation_monitor	Update an agent evaluation monitor in place (pass monitor_uuid; used in Phase 5)
create_or_update_agent_trajectory_monitor	Update an agent trajectory monitor in place (pass monitor_uuid; used in Phase 5)
create_or_update_agent_validation_monitor	Update an agent validation monitor in place (pass monitor_uuid; used in Phase 5)

All the create_or_update_* tools follow a two-call preview-then-confirm pattern: the first call (with the default dry_run=True) returns the rendered MaC YAML for review in result.yaml; the second call (dry_run=False) deploys the change live and returns a deep link in result.instructions. Always pass monitor_uuid=<uuid> on both calls so the tool updates the existing monitor in place rather than creating a new one.

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Phase 0: Validate Input

Extract the monitor UUID from $ARGUMENTS. It must be a valid UUID (format: xxxxxxxx-xxxx-xxxx-xxxx-xxxxxxxxxxxx).

If no UUID is provided or it doesn't look like a UUID, stop and tell the user:

Please provide a monitor UUID. Example: /tune-monitor 94c2dd3a-ef49-40f8-b1c1-741ba057cabf

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Phase 1: Fetch Monitor Report

Call get_monitor_report with:

• monitor_uuid: the UUID from $ARGUMENTS
• max_incidents: 50

If the tool returns an error or empty result, tell the user the monitor was not found and stop.

Also fetch the monitor's full config via get_monitors with:

• monitor_ids: [{monitor_uuid}]
• include_fields: [config]

Run both calls in parallel.

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Phase 1.5: Determine Monitor Type and Load Reference

From the get_monitors config response, determine the monitor type:

Config indicator	Type	Reference file
Monitor type is a metric monitor variant (e.g., metric, field health)	Metric	references/metric-monitor.md
Monitor type is a custom SQL rule / custom monitor	Custom SQL	references/custom-sql-monitor.md
Monitor type is a validation rule / validation monitor	Validation	references/validation-monitor.md
Monitor type is a table monitor (freshness, volume, schema across tables)	Table	references/table-monitor.md
Monitor type is an agent metric monitor (metric over an AI agent's trace table)	Agent metric	references/agent-metric-monitor.md
Monitor type is an agent evaluation monitor (LLM-judge / SQL transforms over sampled agent traffic)	Agent evaluation	references/agent-evaluation-monitor.md
Monitor type is an agent trajectory monitor (span-pattern rule over an agent's traces)	Agent trajectory	references/agent-trajectory-monitor.md
Monitor type is an agent validation monitor (predicate rule flagging invalid span rows)	Agent validation	references/agent-validation-monitor.md

Read the appropriate reference file using the Read tool with the path relative to this skill file. The reference contains type-specific config fields to extract, recommendation guidance, and apply-changes instructions.

If the monitor type is not metric, custom SQL, validation, table, or one of the agent monitor types (metric, evaluation, trajectory, validation), stop and tell the user:

This skill supports tuning metric, custom SQL, validation, table, and agent (metric, evaluation, trajectory, validation) monitors. This monitor is a {type} monitor, which is not supported.

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Phase 2: Analyze the Report

Analyze the monitor report and config together. Focus on:

2a. Alert volume & frequency

• How many incidents in the last 30 days? Last 7 days?
• What is the firing cadence — multiple times per day? Daily? Sporadic?
• Are incidents clustered in time (bursts) or spread evenly?

2b. Anomaly patterns

• Which segments (field values) are firing most? Are they the same segments repeatedly?
• Are anomalies consistently marginal (just above threshold) or severe?
• Are any anomalies from sparse/bursty event types that naturally spike?
• Are anomalies caused by known operational events (deployments, batch jobs, bulk user actions)?
• For validation monitors: how many invalid rows per incident? Is the count stable or growing?
• For table monitors: which (table, metric) pairs are firing most? Are they the same repeatedly?

2c. Current configuration

Extract the current configuration. The specific fields to look for are documented in the per-type reference loaded in Phase 1.5. At minimum, extract:

• Monitor type and what it measures
• Schedule interval
• Audiences / notification channels
• Whether the monitor uses ML thresholds or explicit thresholds
• The value of every setting you might propose changing — sensitivity, thresholds, the time bucket it aggregates on, its filter, and the segments it already excludes

That last item is what Phase 3 checks each recommendation against, so extract it even where nothing about the report suggests the setting is the problem. Write the values down in your analysis; a setting you never read is one you cannot tell you are about to re-propose.

2d. Troubleshooting analysis (if available)

Look at any troubleshooting TL;DRs in the report. Note:

• Are most anomalies assessed as "likely normal data variation"?
• Are there recurring root causes?
• Is there a blind spot (e.g., no upstream metadata)?

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Phase 3: Generate Recommendations

Based on the analysis, produce a prioritized list of recommendations. For each recommendation:

• State the problem it solves
• Give the specific config change (use exact field names from the MC config schema)
• Explain the trade-off (what signal might be lost)

Check every change against the value you read in 2c. Reading the configuration is the floor, not the point — a lever the monitor is already set to is not a recommendation, it is a report that the user's change did not take, and it costs them a second attempt at something already done. Before naming a lever, find it in what you extracted and confirm the monitor is not already there. If it is, say so under What NOT to change and spend the slot on a lever that would actually move. This binds the heading as tightly as the body: a recommendation titled "switch to weekly buckets" on a monitor already bucketing weekly reads as advice to re-apply it, whatever the paragraph underneath goes on to say.

The same applies to a change someone made recently. The report covers a window; the configuration is only as of now. If last_update_time is more recent than the alerts you are reasoning from, those alerts fired under an older configuration — say so, and check each lever against the current values rather than against what the alert pattern implies the monitor used to be set to.

General recommendations (all monitor types)

Sensitivity tuning (ML thresholds only)

This applies to any monitor that uses ML thresholds — both metric monitors and custom SQL monitors. Skip this section for validation monitors (they don't use ML thresholds), for table monitors (they have their own per-metric sensitivity — see the table monitor reference), for agent trajectory and agent validation monitors (no thresholds or sensitivity at all — see their references), and for monitors with explicit thresholds (for custom SQL monitors, see threshold adjustment in the per-type reference instead).

• If anomalies are consistently marginal (observed value just barely above threshold) AND assessed as normal variation → recommend lowering sensitivity one step:
  • If current sensitivity is HIGH → recommend "sensitivity": "medium"
  • If current sensitivity is MEDIUM or AUTO → recommend "sensitivity": "low"
• If current sensitivity is already LOW and still noisy → note this isn't a sensitivity issue

Schedule / interval

• If the monitor fires multiple times per day but anomalies always resolve within hours → recommend increasing schedule interval (e.g., from 720 min to 1440 min) to reduce duplicate alerts
• If anomalies are caused by data arriving late → recommend increasing collection_lag

Snooze / training period

• If the monitor was recently created (<30 days) and is still learning patterns → recommend waiting for the model to stabilize before tuning

Audience / notification routing

• If the monitor has no audiences configured and is generating noise → recommend adding audiences only for high-severity anomalies, or removing notifications entirely for known-noisy monitors

Type-specific recommendations

For type-specific recommendations (WHERE conditions, segment exclusion, aggregation changes, threshold adjustment, SQL modifications, alert condition modifications, per-table-metric sensitivity tuning), follow the guidance in the per-type reference loaded in Phase 1.5.

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Phase 4: Present the Report

Output a structured analysis. This is the primary output — include it in full.

## Monitor Tune Report: {monitor_uuid}

**Monitor:** {display_name or mac_name}
**Type:** {monitor type — metric, custom SQL, validation, table, or an agent monitor type}
**Table:** {table}
**What it monitors:** {metric and segments, SQL query summary, validation conditions, or table/metric coverage}
**Current sensitivity:** {sensitivity or "AUTO (default)" or "N/A (explicit thresholds)"}
**Schedule:** every {interval_minutes / 60}h

### Alert Summary (last 30 days)
- Total alerts: {count}
- Firing frequency: {e.g., "~twice daily", "daily", "sporadic"}
- Most noisy segments: {top 2-3 segment values by alert count, or N/A for custom SQL/validation}
- Most noisy (table, metric) pairs: {for table monitors: top pairs by anomaly count}

### Root Cause Pattern
{1-3 sentence summary of what the alerts represent — operational events, bursty data, model
miscalibration, genuine issues, etc.}

### Recommendations

#### 1. {Highest-impact change} [RECOMMENDED]
**Problem:** ...
**Change:**
```yaml
{specific config field}: {new value}

Trade-off: ...

2. {Second change} [OPTIONAL]

...

3. {Third change} [OPTIONAL]

...

What NOT to change

{Any configurations that look correct and should be left alone — avoid over-tuning.}

If these changes are made

{Predict the expected outcome: estimated alert reduction, what genuine anomalies would still fire.}

**Next step:** "Want me to apply any of these changes to the monitor config, or explore the alert
history further?"

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## Phase 5: Apply Changes (if user requests)

To apply changes, follow the apply-changes instructions in the per-type reference loaded in
Phase 1.5. Each reference specifies the correct tool and constraints for that monitor type.

General rules for all types:
1. **Always preview first** — show the user what will change before applying.
2. **Get explicit confirmation** before applying any change.
3. **Validate the preview YAML against the schema** — before presenting the preview YAML to the user, fetch the published MaC JSON Schema from `https://clidocs.getmontecarlo.com/mac/schema.json` (WebFetch) and check the preview YAML against it. If any field in the YAML does not appear in the schema for the given monitor type, flag it and correct it. Note: the schema validates field names, types, and enum values only — cross-field semantic constraints are enforced by the backend at apply time, not by the schema.
4. **MaC-managed monitors** — if `get_monitors` returns a `mac_name` or the user mentions the monitor is managed via a MaC YAML file, note this before applying: changes made via the API will be overwritten the next time `montecarlo monitors apply` runs. Offer to hand off to `/manage-mac` (edit workflow) instead so the YAML file stays the source of truth.

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## Guidelines

- **Be specific.** Generic advice like "reduce sensitivity" is less useful than exact config changes.
- **Prefer surgical changes.** A targeted WHERE condition beats a blunt sensitivity reduction.
- **Preserve signal.** Always explain what genuine anomalies would still be caught after tuning.
- **Cite evidence.** Reference specific incident dates, segment values, and counts from the report.
- **Degrade gracefully.** If troubleshooting runs are missing, note the limited context and
  reason from alert patterns alone.
- **Add `$schema` when saving YAML to a file.** If the user asks to save the MaC YAML to a file, add `# yaml-language-server: $schema=https://clidocs.getmontecarlo.com/mac/schema.json` as the first line of that file.