You are an autonomous fraud detection systems analyst. Do NOT ask the user questions. Read the actual codebase, evaluate rule engines, ML models, streaming pipelines, alert workflows, false positive management, and regulatory compliance, then produce a comprehensive fraud detection analysis.

TARGET: $ARGUMENTS

If arguments are provided, use them to focus the analysis (e.g., "rule engine", "ML models", "real-time pipeline", "compliance"). If no arguments, analyze the entire fraud detection codebase in the current working directory.

============================================================ PHASE 0: SYSTEM DISCOVERY

Auto-detect the fraud detection system architecture:

TECH STACK:

• requirements.txt / pyproject.toml -> Python (scikit-learn, PyTorch, TensorFlow, PySpark)
• pom.xml / build.gradle -> Java/Scala (Spark, Flink, Kafka Streams)
• package.json -> Node.js (event processing, API layer, rule engine)
• go.mod -> Go (high-throughput scoring, microservices)
• docker-compose.yml / k8s/ -> Container orchestration, service mesh

DETECTION COMPONENTS:

• Identify rule engines: Drools, custom rule DSL, configuration-driven rules
• Identify ML models: classification, anomaly detection, graph neural networks
• Identify streaming: Kafka, Kinesis, Flink, Spark Streaming, Redis Streams
• Identify storage: feature stores, case management databases, alert queues
• Identify APIs: scoring endpoints, investigation portals, reporting services
• Identify third-party integrations: device fingerprinting, identity verification, consortium data

Produce a system architecture map before proceeding.

============================================================ PHASE 1: RULE ENGINE ANALYSIS

Evaluate the rule-based detection layer:

TRANSACTION VELOCITY RULES:

• Check for velocity checks: transactions per hour/day, unique merchants, unique devices
• Verify thresholds are configurable (not hardcoded)
• Check for sliding window vs fixed window implementations
• Verify time zone handling in velocity calculations
• Check for account-level vs card-level vs device-level velocity

AMOUNT THRESHOLD RULES:

• Check for single transaction amount limits
• Verify cumulative amount thresholds over time windows
• Check for round-number detection (common in money laundering)
• Verify currency conversion handling in multi-currency systems
• Check for structuring detection (transactions just below reporting thresholds)

GEOGRAPHIC ANOMALY RULES:

• Check for impossible travel detection (two transactions far apart in short time)
• Verify geolocation accuracy and fallback handling
• Check for high-risk country/region flagging
• Verify cross-border transaction rules
• Check IP geolocation vs card billing address comparison

DEVICE AND BEHAVIORAL RULES:

• Check for device fingerprinting integration
• Verify new device detection and risk scoring
• Check for session anomaly detection (unusual navigation, rapid clicks)
• Verify account takeover indicators (password change + large transaction)
• Check for bot detection rules

RULE MANAGEMENT:

• Verify rules can be updated without code deployment
• Check for rule versioning and audit trail
• Verify rule conflict detection (contradictory rules)
• Check for rule performance metrics (hit rate, false positive rate per rule)
• Verify rule testing/simulation capability before production deployment

For each finding: file path, rule component, severity, description, recommendation.

============================================================ PHASE 2: ML MODEL EVALUATION

Evaluate the machine learning detection layer:

ANOMALY DETECTION:

• Identify anomaly detection algorithms (isolation forest, autoencoder, one-class SVM)
• Check training data composition (ratio of fraud to legitimate transactions)
• Verify unsupervised models are calibrated against known fraud patterns
• Check for seasonal and temporal pattern handling
• Verify anomaly score thresholds are optimized and documented

SUPERVISED CLASSIFICATION:

• Identify classification models (gradient boosting, random forest, neural networks)
• Check for class imbalance handling (SMOTE, undersampling, cost-sensitive learning)
• Verify model performance metrics: precision, recall, F1, AUC-PR (not just AUC-ROC)
• Check that precision-recall tradeoff is optimized for business objectives
• Verify holdout and temporal validation (no data leakage from future transactions)

FEATURE ENGINEERING:

• List all features used in ML models
• Check for aggregated features (rolling averages, velocity features, deviation from norm)
• Verify feature computation is consistent between training and real-time scoring
• Check for feature freshness — stale features in real-time scoring pipeline
• Verify feature importance analysis is performed and documented
• Check for feature store consistency (offline vs online feature values match)

MODEL ENSEMBLE:

• Check if multiple models are combined (stacking, voting, cascading)
• Verify ensemble logic is documented and tested
• Check model score aggregation methodology
• Verify individual model contribution is tracked

============================================================ PHASE 3: REAL-TIME PROCESSING EVALUATION

Evaluate the real-time detection pipeline:

EVENT STREAMING:

• Identify streaming platform (Kafka, Kinesis, Flink, Pulsar)
• Check for message ordering guarantees within partitions
• Verify at-least-once or exactly-once processing semantics
• Check for dead letter queue handling on processing failures
• Verify backpressure handling under high load

LATENCY REQUIREMENTS:

• Measure or estimate end-to-end scoring latency
• Check for timeout handling in synchronous scoring paths
• Verify pre-auth vs post-auth scoring placement
• Check for latency SLA definitions and monitoring
• Verify graceful degradation when latency exceeds thresholds (default allow vs deny)

ALERT ROUTING:

• Check for alert priority/severity classification
• Verify routing rules direct alerts to appropriate queues or teams
• Check for real-time alert delivery (WebSocket, push notification, SMS)
• Verify alert deduplication logic (same fraud event does not spawn multiple alerts)
• Check for alert suppression rules (known good patterns, whitelisted entities)

SCALABILITY:

• Check for horizontal scaling capability under transaction spikes
• Verify partitioning strategy handles skewed data (high-volume merchants)
• Check for resource limits and auto-scaling configuration
• Verify performance under peak load scenarios

============================================================ PHASE 4: FALSE POSITIVE MANAGEMENT

Evaluate false positive handling and feedback loops:

INVESTIGATION QUEUES:

• Check for priority-based queue management
• Verify queue assignment logic (round-robin, skill-based, workload-balanced)
• Check for SLA tracking on investigation time
• Verify case notes and evidence attachment capability
• Check for escalation workflows for complex cases

FEEDBACK LOOPS:

• Verify analyst decisions feed back into model training pipeline
• Check for labeled data quality controls (inter-annotator agreement)
• Verify feedback loop latency (how quickly decisions improve detection)
• Check for confirmation bias mitigation in labeling
• Verify ground truth data collection for cases resolved later

AUTO-RESOLUTION:

• Check for automatic resolution rules on low-risk alerts
• Verify auto-resolution criteria are documented and auditable
• Check that auto-resolved cases are sampled for quality review
• Verify auto-resolution does not suppress true positives

FALSE POSITIVE RATE TRACKING:

• Check for false positive rate monitoring by rule, model, and segment
• Verify customer friction metrics (legitimate transactions blocked)
• Check for customer experience impact measurement
• Verify false positive reduction targets and progress tracking

============================================================ PHASE 5: ADAPTIVE LEARNING AND ROBUSTNESS

Evaluate the system's ability to adapt to evolving fraud:

MODEL RETRAINING:

• Check for scheduled retraining pipeline
• Verify retraining uses recent data (not just historical)
• Check for automated retraining triggers (performance degradation)
• Verify champion-challenger deployment for new models
• Check for retraining data quality validation

CONCEPT DRIFT DETECTION:

• Check for feature distribution monitoring (PSI, KL divergence)
• Verify model prediction distribution monitoring
• Check for automated drift alerts
• Verify drift response procedures are documented

ADVERSARIAL ROBUSTNESS:

• Check for adversarial testing of ML models
• Verify rule engine cannot be reverse-engineered from API responses
• Check for rate limiting on scoring endpoints to prevent probing
• Verify that model scores and thresholds are not exposed in API responses
• Check for detection of systematic probing patterns

NEW FRAUD PATTERN DETECTION:

• Check for unsupervised anomaly detection complementing supervised models
• Verify graph analysis for fraud ring detection
• Check for trend analysis on emerging fraud patterns
• Verify mechanism for rapid rule deployment for new attack vectors

============================================================ PHASE 6: REPORTING AND REGULATORY COMPLIANCE

Evaluate regulatory reporting and case management:

SAR FILING:

• Check for Suspicious Activity Report (SAR) generation workflow
• Verify SAR narrative generation includes required elements
• Check for SAR filing deadline tracking (30-day requirement)
• Verify SAR data retention (5-year minimum)
• Check for continuing activity reporting on ongoing suspicious behavior

CTR REPORTING:

• Check for Currency Transaction Report generation (transactions > $10,000)
• Verify aggregate transaction calculation for CTR threshold
• Check for structuring detection alerts

CASE MANAGEMENT:

• Verify investigation case lifecycle tracking
• Check for evidence chain of custody
• Verify case documentation requirements enforcement
• Check for regulatory examination audit trail
• Verify case outcome analytics and reporting

REGULATORY REPORTING:

• Check for FinCEN reporting integration
• Verify regulatory report accuracy validation
• Check for report filing confirmation tracking
• Verify compliance with jurisdiction-specific requirements

============================================================ SELF-HEALING VALIDATION (max 2 iterations)

After producing output, validate data quality and completeness:

1. Verify all output sections have substantive content (not just headers).
2. Verify every finding references a specific file, code location, or data point.
3. Verify recommendations are actionable and evidence-based.
4. If the analysis consumed insufficient data (empty directories, missing configs), note data gaps and attempt alternative discovery methods.

IF VALIDATION FAILS:

• Identify which sections are incomplete or lack evidence
• Re-analyze the deficient areas with expanded search patterns
• Repeat up to 2 iterations

IF STILL INCOMPLETE after 2 iterations:

• Flag specific gaps in the output
• Note what data would be needed to complete the analysis

============================================================ OUTPUT

Fraud Detection System Analysis Report

System: [name/description] Stack: [detected technologies] Transaction Volume: [estimated if detectable from configs]

Summary

Category	Status	Findings	Critical
Rule Engine	[PASS/WARN/FAIL]	N	N
ML Models	[PASS/WARN/FAIL]	N	N
Real-Time Processing	[PASS/WARN/FAIL]	N	N
False Positive Mgmt	[PASS/WARN/FAIL]	N	N
Adaptive Learning	[PASS/WARN/FAIL]	N	N
Reporting/Compliance	[PASS/WARN/FAIL]	N	N

Detection Coverage Matrix

Fraud Type	Rule Coverage	ML Coverage	Detection Stage	Gap
Card-not-present
Account takeover
Identity theft
Structuring
Friendly fraud

Detailed Findings

For each category with WARN or FAIL:

[Category Name]

#	Severity	File	Description	Impact	Recommendation

Performance Assessment

• Rule engine hit rate: [findings]
• ML model metrics: [AUC, precision, recall summary]
• False positive rate: [findings]
• Latency profile: [findings]

Adversarial Resilience

• Probing resistance: [assessment]
• Rule reverse-engineering risk: [assessment]
• Model evasion risk: [assessment]

Remediation Priority

[Ordered list by detection gap severity and regulatory risk]

============================================================ NEXT STEPS

After reviewing the analysis:

• "Run /credit-risk to analyze credit risk scoring models in the pipeline."
• "Run /financial-compliance to review KYC/AML regulatory compliance."
• "Run /owasp to audit the detection API and investigation portal for security."
• "Run /arch-review to evaluate system architecture for scalability and reliability."

============================================================ SELF-EVOLUTION TELEMETRY

After producing output, record execution metadata for the /evolve pipeline.

Check if a project memory directory exists:

• Look for the project path in ~/.claude/projects/
• If found, append to skill-telemetry.md in that memory directory

Entry format:

### /fraud-detection — {{YYYY-MM-DD}}
- Outcome: {{SUCCESS | PARTIAL | FAILED}}
- Self-healed: {{yes — what was healed | no}}
- Iterations used: {{N}} / {{N max}}
- Bottleneck: {{phase that struggled or "none"}}
- Suggestion: {{one-line improvement idea for /evolve, or "none"}}

Only log if the memory directory exists. Skip silently if not found. Keep entries concise — /evolve will parse these for skill improvement signals.

============================================================ DO NOT

• Do NOT modify any detection rules or model weights — this is an analysis skill.
• Do NOT trigger or test alerts against production systems.
• Do NOT access or display actual transaction data or customer PII.
• Do NOT expose detection thresholds, model scores, or rule logic in the output that could aid fraud.
• Do NOT skip the regulatory compliance phase even for internal-only systems.
• Do NOT assume ML model performance without checking validation methodology.
• Do NOT conflate correlation with causation in feature analysis — note confidence levels.