商务技能

Turn Turtle Trading breakout rules into a systematic plan. Define the Donchian lookback, size positions using ATR-based risk units, set stops and add levels, and cap portfolio heat across correlated markets for trend following.

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• Reviewing a Donchian breakout strategy
• Setting ATR-based position sizes and stops
• Planning pyramiding and add levels

Review value investments through Prem Watsa and Fairfax-style capital allocation. Assess insurance float, the funds generated by insurance operations, and how they support investments in equities, credit, and special situations, while focusing on downside protection and long-term value growth.

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• Reviewing an insurer’s float and underwriting quality
• Assessing contrarian capital allocation
• Comparing equity, credit, and special situations

Investigate whether reported earnings convert into cash, and examine aggressive non-GAAP adjustments, acquisition accounting, governance, and capital allocation. Build an evidence-based short thesis, identify potential catalysts, and state what findings would invalidate it.

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• Checking earnings quality and cash conversion
• Reviewing aggressive non-GAAP adjustments
• Examining acquisition accounting and organic growth

Review short-term technical setups in A-shares, China’s mainland stock markets, using volume and price, moving averages, and breakout signals. It helps define possible entries, stops, and exits while identifying missing data and the conditions that would invalidate a trade idea.

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• Checking whether volume supports a price breakout
• Reviewing moving average trend signals for an A-share
• Defining entry, stop, and exit conditions for a short-term setup

Evaluate platforms, marketplaces, and networks by mapping how participants interact, whether growth makes the product more useful, and what could protect or weaken the business. The review organizes evidence, risks, and decision points.

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• Assessing a marketplace’s defensibility
• Reviewing a platform or protocol
• Checking network growth and monetization

Examine suspected fraud, revenue and cash evidence, sales channels, related parties, and governance concerns. The skill organizes primary evidence into a forensic short thesis, while identifying catalysts, squeeze and timing risks, missing information, and conditions that could invalidate the view.

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• Checking whether reported revenue or cash has supporting evidence
• Investigating possible channel stuffing or fraud
• Mapping related-party structures and governance concerns

Evaluate growth stocks using Peter Lynch-style common sense. Classify the company, connect observations about its products to financial evidence, assess growth potential, valuation with PEG, and balance-sheet strength, then identify signs that the investment story is weakening.

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• Researching a familiar product as a stock idea
• Classifying a growth company
• Checking PEG, growth potential, and financial strength

Evaluate a stock through Deng Xiaofeng's industry-cycle approach. Map the industry's position in the cycle, study supply and demand and new capacity, identify leaders with cost or scale advantages, and assess whether pessimism is reflected in prices.

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• Assessing whether an industry is near a cycle bottom or peak
• Researching supply, demand, and planned capacity
• Comparing industry leaders on cost or scale advantages

Assess a portfolio through economic growth and inflation conditions, debt-cycle stages, and policy constraints. Review diversification and risk parity across assets such as stocks, bonds, commodities, gold, and cash, then consider rebalancing as conditions or risk contributions change.

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• Reviewing an all-weather portfolio allocation
• Assessing exposure to economic regimes and debt cycles
• Checking risk parity and portfolio rebalancing

Evaluate AI, crypto, and software startups by examining technology shifts, market creation, platform potential, adoption evidence, and risks. The analysis separates durable advantages from temporary narratives and ends with a verdict, action plan, and conditions that would invalidate the thesis.

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• Assessing an AI or software startup’s platform potential
• Reviewing evidence for a crypto network thesis
• Comparing market creation with temporary hype

Find and assess Darvas-style breakouts in liquid growth stocks. Define the consolidation range, check whether price breaks above it with volume near new highs, and set a clear stop below the range to structure a mechanical trade plan.

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• Defining a stock’s consolidation box
• Checking a breakout with volume confirmation
• Setting a stop below the box

Review a crypto decision by checking market heat, narrative assumptions, position size, and leverage. The skill separates evidence from judgment and returns a verdict, key risks, an action plan, and conditions that would invalidate the trade.

中文简介正在准备中。当前显示英语简介。

• Check whether a crypto purchase is driven by FOMO
• Test a token or sector narrative for weak assumptions
• Review leverage and position size against risk limits

Review cryptocurrency charts by identifying market structure, trend or range conditions, and the price level that would invalidate a trade idea. The analysis also considers leverage and market narratives, then frames a risk-aware action plan when data supports one.

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• Diagnosing a crypto trend or range
• Marking trade invalidation levels
• Reviewing leverage and liquidation risk

Assess whether a business fits a concentrated, long-term quality investing approach associated with Chris Hohn and TCI. Examine pricing power, returns on capital, growth runway, valuation, and whether engagement could improve governance or capital allocation.

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• Screening businesses for long-term concentrated ownership
• Assessing pricing power and returns on capital
• Reviewing a company's valuation against its growth runway

Analyze macro trades across currencies, interest rates, equity indexes, and commodities by identifying the main driver and checking liquidity, policy, and market confirmation. The skill helps define a liquid trade expression, manage concentrated risk, and set conditions for cutting losses.

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• Finding the main driver behind a macro trade
• Checking how liquidity and central bank policy align
• Comparing a trade thesis with market prices and consensus

Shape or review a rule-based trend-following system with objective entries and exits. Consider volatility-based position sizing, portfolio risk, small losses, and the whipsaws that come with pursuing long-term trends, while checking whether the rules are followed consistently.

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• Designing mechanical trend-following rules
• Reviewing risk and position sizing for a trend system
• Discussing whipsaws, drawdowns, and trading discipline

Assess activist investment ideas by identifying undervalued assets and governance or capital allocation problems, then estimating potential value from actions such as buybacks or asset sales. Review ownership, board vulnerability, shareholder support, catalysts, and campaign risks.

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• Reviewing an activist campaign thesis
• Assessing a buyback or asset sale proposal
• Analyzing sum-of-the-parts undervaluation

Assess long-term innovation themes by examining adoption stages, technology convergence, costs, competition, and execution milestones. Use the findings to structure a thesis, identify risks, and consider how a volatile, long-duration opportunity might fit a portfolio.

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• Reviewing a disruptive technology theme
• Assessing a technology’s adoption stage
• Comparing converging technologies

Evaluate startups and growth companies by examining founders, market size, product-market fit, distribution, and long-term company building. It structures the evidence, risks, and missing information into a clear view for diligence, monitoring, or investment decision support.

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• Reviewing a startup before an investment decision
• Assessing founder and team strengths
• Checking product-market fit and growth channels

Assess a company’s promotional story, related parties, incentives, and disclosure record to build an evidence-based short thesis. The skill organizes potential catalysts, risks, missing information, and conditions that would invalidate the view.

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• Checking suspected stock promotion and who benefits
• Mapping promoters, related parties, and incentives
• Reviewing possible disclosure failures

Assess where a market may sit in its cycle by comparing price, value, and the reward offered for risk. The skill examines credit conditions and investor psychology, then outlines a defensive, neutral, opportunistic, or aggressive portfolio stance with uncertainties and missing data.

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• Assess a market's position in the credit cycle
• Compare a crowded market view with a second-level view
• Review whether risk premiums compensate for possible losses

Evaluate Chinese A-share limit-up setups by reading market sentiment cycles, comparing sector and stock strength, and checking whether a breakout has follow-through. It organizes an aggressive short-term momentum view with evidence, risks, an action plan, and invalidation conditions.

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• Assessing a limit-up stock setup
• Diagnosing a market sentiment cycle
• Comparing sector leaders and board strength

Review growth stocks for a Volatility Contraction Pattern, where pullbacks become progressively smaller. Check trend, moving averages, relative strength, volume near the pivot, and breakout distance, then outline entry, stop, and invalidation levels.

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• Reviewing a VCP or base breakout setup
• Checking whether a stock is too extended from its pivot
• Planning an entry and structural stop for a growth stock

Review fixed-income choices by assessing the rates and inflation outlook, duration, yield-curve exposure, and credit risk. Compare potential yield with default, liquidity, and price sensitivity risks, then summarize a relative-value view, possible action, and conditions that would invalidate it.

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• Reviewing bond allocation and duration exposure
• Comparing credit risk with interest-rate risk
• Assessing yield-curve trades and hedges