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Turns a theory into falsifiable, pre-registerable hypotheses, covering the DGP and DAG, identification, SATE versus PATE, counterfactual and directional framing, named estimands, justified SESOIs, the choice among NHST, equivalence, interval, and minimum-effect tests, scope conditions, and primary, secondary, and exploratory tiers. Use when the user asks to turn a research question or theory into hypotheses, whether a prediction is falsifiable, what the estimand is, or how to predict a null. Framing goes to narrative-building, the plan to pre-registration-writing.

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Runs end-stage QA on a finished figure and table set. Checks callouts, numbering, and cross-references, whether numbers in the text match the exhibits, self-contained captions and statistical notes, accessibility and production quality, and links to the SI and replication package. Values that could only be read off an image are marked for author verification rather than estimated. Use when preparing a submission. Design guidance during drafting belongs to figures and tables.

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Checks whether each claim in a manuscript is supported by the source it cites, reading the project's per-source Markdown knowledge base. Flags contradicted, unsupported, overclaimed, out-of-scope, and misattributed claims with verbatim source quotes. Runs citation-check first, and stops at a pre-flight gate when the knowledge base is missing, incomplete, or holds unconverted PDFs. Use to verify that a draft's claims match the sources it cites.

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Runs a deliberative two-model committee of GPT-6 Astra and Claude Opus under a selectable chair, Fable by default, with `/model-committee-astra`, `/model-committee-opus`, and `/model-committee-sol` selecting the others. Use when a consequential decision has several defensible options and two model families should propose, critique, revise, and cross-rank them against a predeclared rubric before converging, as in research design, interpretation, architecture, manuscript strategy, or evaluation design. Not for factual lookups, independent-coder reliability, brainstorming, routine implementation, or final professional judgment.

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Writes or reviews a pre-analysis plan before data collection: registry choice (OSF, AEA, AsPredicted, registered reports), locked models and decision rules, code run on simulated data, contingencies, and deviation records. Use when drafting or auditing a pre-registration or PAP, choosing a registry, or handling a deviation.

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Generates 3-5 conceptually distinct approaches (Novel, Surprising, Diverse, Conventional) and holds for selection before implementing. Use before committing to an approach when a task has more than one non-obvious solution; --codex delegates the brainstorm to a fresh subagent.

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Typeset a working paper or journal submission in house-style LaTeX from Markdown, Word, TeX, ODT, RTF, or HTML. Use to convert drafts, build PDFs, or prepare journal-specific spacing, limits, anonymization, disclosures, and citations.

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Opens a talk, module, paper, chapter, or referee report as a multi-session deliverable. Interviews the author, then scaffolds deliverable.yml, HANDOFF.md, the planning/ wiki, inbox/, and checks/. Use for deadline-driven work spanning sessions.

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Designs conjoint and factorial-vignette experiments, covering attribute architecture and randomization restrictions, effective-N power, treatment realism, the choice among AMCE, marginal-mean, and AMIE estimands, forced-choice versus rating designs, and PAP tiers. Use when the user is planning a conjoint, drafting or critiquing an attribute table, asking how many respondents or tasks are needed, whether to report AMCEs or marginal means, or how to test interactions. Reviewing an existing design goes to conjoint-diagnostics, cleaning the export to conjoint-cleaning.

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Run a pre-submission manuscript audit covering argument, numerics, references, writing, figures, methods, preregistration, and replication readiness. Add --codex for a cross-model pass in which Codex and Claude review independently and verify each other's findings.

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Turns a raw Qualtrics conjoint export into an analysis-ready long-format dataset, covering export settings, identifying the implementation, package or manual wide-to-long reshaping, choice-profile alignment, ratings, reference categories, pilot exclusion, and subgroup merges. Use when the user has a conjoint CSV to clean, reshape, or debug, cannot align choices with profiles, or asks what the data must look like before AMCE estimation. Design goes to conjoint-design, validity review to conjoint-diagnostics.

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Audits a manuscript's citations for fabricated or nonexistent sources, DOIs that resolve to a different work, mismatches between in-text citations and the reference list, APA 7 or journal style, and whether each source supports the claim it is attached to. Checks entries against Crossref, OpenAlex, and DataCite and labels anything it could not verify NOT CHECKED. Use to check citations, references, a .bib file, or DOIs, or when a source may be AI-invented. Figures and tables go to figure-table-audit.

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Designs survey instruments: question wording, scales and index reliability, flow and treatment placement, pretesting, attention and speeding rules, and sensitive questions. Use when writing or revising survey questions, choosing scales, ordering blocks, or planning a pilot.

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Design and format publication-quality figures. Use for chart choice, color, scales, legends, captions, accessibility, and reproducible figure workflows.

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Run one consequential, contestable decision through a deliberative committee of GPT-6 Astra and Claude Opus, chaired by fable (default), astra, opus, or sol. Not for factual lookups, brainstorming, routine implementation, independent-coder reliability, or final professional judgment. Use when several options are defensible and the two model families should propose, critique, revise, and cross-rank under a predeclared rubric.

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End-of-session closure. Records what changed into the project's own handoff and log files, separating verified from attempted work, and reports what is uncommitted. Use when wrapping up a session. Twin of sitrep.

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Scaffold or audit a research-project repository organized around its source library (PDFs, Markdown conversions, bibliography, intake pipeline) plus the analysis, manuscript, and review folders it needs. Use when starting or auditing a research repo. Not for one-PDF intake or publication replication packages.

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Designs multi-country survey experiments: case selection, localization and TRAPD translation, stimulus calibration, per-country power, and pooled versus per-country analysis with measurement-equivalence checks. Use when fielding the same experiment in several countries.

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Reviews an existing conjoint study for threats to inference and returns severity-ranked findings on design, estimation, measurement error, external validity, and interpretation. Use when checking whether a conjoint design or analysis holds up, or answering referee comments on one.

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Turns a raw Qualtrics conjoint export into analysis-ready long-format data: implementation identification, reshaping, choice-profile alignment, reference categories, and pilot exclusion. Use when a conjoint CSV needs cleaning, reshaping, or debugging before AMCE estimation.

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Audit a methods section against a 45-item checklist drawn from the APSA Experimental Section rubric, JARS-Quant, CONSORT, and DA-RT. Use before submission or archiving, or to document a pre-analysis-plan deviation.

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Turns a theory into falsifiable, pre-registerable hypotheses: DGP and DAG, identification, estimands, SESOIs, test choice among NHST, equivalence, and minimum-effect tests, scope conditions, and hypothesis tiers. Use when converting a research question into testable predictions or predicting a null.

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Designs multi-country survey experiments, covering case selection with a stated comparative logic, instrument localization and TRAPD translation, stimulus calibration, per-country power, and pooled versus per-country analysis with measurement-equivalence checks. Use when the user fields the same experiment in several countries, asks which countries to include, how to adapt an instrument without breaking comparability, whether to pool, or how large each country sample must be. Question wording goes to survey-design, reporting to methods-reporting, the study plan to pre-registration-writing.

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Reviews an existing conjoint study for threats to inference and returns severity-ranked findings on design integrity, estimation, measurement error, external validity, and interpretation, including the guardrail against reading an AMCE as majority preference. Use when the user asks whether a conjoint design or analysis holds up, has referee comments on a conjoint, or wants a second opinion on estimation or interpretation. New designs go to conjoint-design, reshaping to conjoint-cleaning.

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