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Prioritize product or business assumptions using an impact and risk matrix. Sort them into implementation, deferral, rejection, or testing, then propose experiments for assumptions that need validation, using actual behavior and clear success metrics and thresholds.
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Identify untested assumptions behind a new product idea across eight areas, including customer value, usability, business viability, technology, ethics, market launch, strategy, and team. Rate confidence in each assumption and suggest a test, producing a Markdown analysis.
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Examine feature ideas for existing products to uncover risky assumptions about customer value, usability, business support, and technical feasibility. Consider product, design, and engineering perspectives, then record potential failures, confidence levels, and suggested ways to test each assumption.
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Use when: assumptions audit, audit assumptions, check for hidden assumptions, plan/ticket has ambiguous scope edges, pre-flight before finalizing a ticket, unstated assumptions, or 'what am I assuming'. Surfaces unstated assumptions, ambiguous scope edges, and untested preconditions in a finished plan/ticket/ADR before it is handed to Builder. Optional pass — Architect judges when to apply it; not a mandatory gate on every ticket.
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Reads a cash forecast (spreadsheet, model export, pasted table or the narrative that accompanies it) and returns a DRAFT assumptions sheet: every assumption the forecast rests on, stated or implied by the figures, with its value as read, its location in the model, the cash lines it drives, its stated source or "not stated", the evidence that would test it, an owner, and one neutral challenge question, so a reviewer can work through the assumptions one by one. Use when the user asks to "list the assumptions behind this cash forecast", "what is this cash flow forecast assuming", "prepare the challenge questions for the treasury review", "pull out the drivers of the 13-week cash forecast" or "build an assumptions register for the liquidity plan". Do not use for actuals against budget by line, use budget-variance-explainer instead; do not use for the case behind a capital request, use capex-request-pack instead. Drafts for human review; never approves, authorises or signs off.
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根据上市公司的财务数据预测未来现金流，用现金流折现法估算每股内在价值，并生成记录计算假设、资料来源和敏感性分析的估值报告。
Estimate private equity deal returns across purchase prices, borrowing levels, growth assumptions, exit prices, and holding periods. Produce Excel sensitivity tables showing annualized returns and investment multiples, plus scenario comparisons and a one-page investment committee summary.
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Turn a product idea into a Lean Canvas, a nine-part outline of business assumptions. Define customer problems, solutions, value, channels, revenue, costs, and metrics, then identify risky assumptions and suggest experiments to test them.
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Plan low-effort experiments to check assumptions about an existing product before building a feature. Compare prototypes, A/B tests, and other methods, with a clear assumption, procedure, metric, and success threshold for each experiment.
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Review a product requirements document, roadmap, or strategy by challenging the assumptions it depends on. Rank potential failures by impact, likelihood, and testing cost, then propose small tests, evidence to gather, and criteria for stopping or changing course.
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Analyze a problem by separating fundamental facts from policies and untested assumptions. The skill produces a component breakdown, a constraint table, and a rebuilt solution, helping explain which inherited assumptions may be limiting the available options.
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Estimate the size of a market or business opportunity using traceable sources, explicit assumptions, and inspectable calculations. Compare scenarios, show how changing assumptions affects the estimate, and identify the evidence needed to improve confidence.
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Stress-test an idea, plan, or proposal through focused critique. The skill examines assumptions, opposing arguments, failure scenarios, attacks, or evidence, then uses your responses to refine the position and identify unresolved trade-offs and risky assumptions.
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RAID log methodology with decision extraction from emails and meeting notes. Use when asked to identify risks, log assumptions, track issues, extract decisions from correspondence, create or update a RAID log, escalate a risk to an issue, assess project risks, validate or challenge assumptions, or capture scope-relevant decisions. Also triggers when the user pastes email chains and asks what decisions were made, or needs to find buried decisions and untested assumptions in correspondence. Trigger on: 'risk report', 'RAID log', 'what are the risks', 'what decisions were made', 'update the risk register', 'what assumptions are we making', 'what could go wrong', 'flag any issues', 'extract decisions from these emails'.
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Extract a thesis's load-bearing assumptions and scan for internal contradictions — the falsifiable claims the bull case requires, what would falsify each, and where the thesis's own Risks / Bear Case / research already argue against it. Use when user says "assumptions", "what must be true", "load-bearing assumptions", or "does [TICKER] contradict itself".
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为代码编写、审查和重构提供指引，通过明确前提、采用最小实现、限定修改范围及测试验证，减少AI常见的实现错误，检查改动是否满足请求。
通过对话深入梳理模糊的想法，比较多个方案，形成可付诸行动的构想，并明确目标人群、成功标准、待验证假设、最小范围和不做的事项。
制作 HTML 幻灯片，说明客户或使用单位的盈利能力，以及用户自带 API 密钥的 BYOK 成本结构。以统一的暖色设计呈现假设、条件变化的影响和规模扩大的依据。
Have agents with different roles challenge a proposed approach, exposing weak assumptions, missed interactions, and unnecessary complexity. Surviving findings go to a dedicated planning agent, which produces sequenced tasks with explicit success criteria.
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Turn product ideas into a focused brief through guided conversation, or update and review an existing one. It records decisions, flags assumptions and unknowns, and keeps supporting detail available for later planning.
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Create market research reports that connect claims to sources, compare competitors, and estimate market size. Build alternative forecasts with explicit assumptions, so readers can review the calculations, uncertainties, and evidence behind each conclusion.
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Explore difficult decisions, research trade-offs, or creative challenges through several simulated perspectives. Separate facts, assumptions, and values, compare competing priorities, and produce a conditional recommendation with unresolved questions, a next step, and conditions that would change the choice.
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Guide AI coding work toward simple implementations, focused edits, and explicit assumptions. Use it when writing, reviewing, or refactoring code to keep changes tied to the request and define success through tests or other concrete checks.
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Update financial models after earnings, new company guidance, or changes in assumptions. Revise forecasts, recalculate valuation and price targets, and summarize significant changes with their reasons and implications for the investment view.
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