“falsification”的搜索结果

Design or review how a sewage spill study estimates effects on house prices. Produce a strategy memo covering the target effect, assumptions, estimating equation, implementation outline, robustness checks, falsification tests, and anticipated referee objections.

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• Planning how to estimate sewage spill effects on house prices
• Reviewing assumptions behind an existing analysis
• Designing robustness checks and falsification tests

Refute-before-prove research discipline: automated counterexample sweeps before any formalization, meter-integrity audits for information-bound experiments, mutation-tested model checkers, pre-registered commit-or-cut gates for speculative directions, wrong-turn reporting, and numeric-claim provenance. Use when validating any new theorem, bound, equilibrium, or security claim; when building or trusting a checker, simulator, or experiment; or when deciding whether a speculative research direction lives or dies. NOT for exploratory brainstorming, product prioritization, writing style, or literature review.

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Investigates network, streaming and protocol failures with falsification-first layered experiments, the general fallback for unknown root causes. Use for ECONNRESET / RST_STREAM / SSE stalls, CDN/CGNAT timeouts or certificate errors, throughput collapse where everything returns 200 but transfers crawl, or LAN identity/topology mysteries. Not for known Tailscale/TUN/DNS/proxy-path conflicts (use tunnel-doctor).

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Render a two-host podcast ad from a brand config and dialogue script. Includes the working planner, full-frame and split-screen assembly, captions from measured character timings, brand end card, approved paid-step adapters, and 65 quality-check falsification cases. Use for short conversational ads with two stable hosts in one room.

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Use when building, backtesting, operating, or scaling automated trading on prediction markets (Kalshi or similar) — evidence-gated methodology, live-execution safety rails, and falsification protocols distilled from a real live-money campaign

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Exposes Claude's reasoning chain as an auditable, decomposable artifact. Quick mode (default) gives assumption inventory + weakest-link in 2 stages. Full mode (--full) adds decision branching, confidence decomposition, and falsification conditions. Triggers on "왜 그렇게 생각해", "reasoning", "근거", "show your work", "어떻게 그 결론이", "trace", "판단 근거", "why do you think that".

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当用户需要验证一个信念/理论/策略/商业模式的正确性、在做决策前想检验逻辑、或在问"怎么判断这个观点对不对""这个方案有没有逻辑漏洞""怎么系统地检验一个想法"时激活。 核心信号：用户需要对某个命题做系统性的逻辑验证，而非直觉判断。 不适用于：纯情感判断、不需要逻辑验证的常识性问题、时间紧迫的直觉决策。

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Analysis of Competing Hypotheses. Operationalizes Richards Heuer's CIA-tradition technique for systematically narrowing among multiple hypotheses against evidence. Builds an explicit hypothesis-vs-evidence matrix and focuses on disconfirmation rather than confirmation — the central insight: hypotheses cannot be proven, only disconfirmed; the surviving hypothesis is the one with the least disconfirming evidence. Spawns parallel hypothesizers (in isolation, across hypothesis-generation angles) and parallel evidence-gatherers (across evidence classes), then synthesizes into a matrix, diagnosticity analysis, sensitivity analysis, and falsification milestones. Produces feedback only — no code, no tickets, no artifacts.

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Run a targeted fresh-eyes blunder pass over code, specs, plans, reviews, closure gates, or skill edits. Use when asked to reread with fresh eyes, find obvious bugs, catch mistakes/oversights/omissions, check for embarrassing misses, or do a second independent pass before closure. Use it as the final falsification/check pass for another workflow, not as a substitute for implementation or verification.

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