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This skill covers Bayesian estimation and inference in quantitative social science. Use when the user is specifying priors, running MCMC, diagnosing chain convergence, or reporting posterior summaries — including hierarchical models, Bayesian structural models, and small-sample settings where priors regularize. Triggers on "Bayesian estimation", "Bayesian inference", "MCMC", "Markov chain Monte Carlo", "Stan", "PyMC", "NumPyro", "prior", "posterior", "credible interval", "Bayesian structural", "Bayesian BLP", "Bayesian DSGE", "hierarchical model", "random effects Bayesian", "posterior predictive check", "Bayes factor", "prior predictive check", "NUTS", "HMC", "Hamiltonian Monte Carlo", "R-hat", "rhat", "effective sample size", "ESS", "Bayesian calibration", "posterior distribution", "prior elicitation", "weakly informative prior", "brms", "rstanarm", "cmdstanpy", "pymc", "arviz".

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Bayesian parameter estimation with MCMC (emcee) and probabilistic programming (PyMC). Posterior distributions, corner plots, model evidence, convergence diagnostics. Use when you need full posterior distributions, not just point estimates.

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Opinionated Bayesian modeling workflow with PyMC and ArviZ. Contains critical guardrails (nutpie sampler, prior/posterior predictive checks, LOO-PIT calibration, prior sensitivity checks, 94% HDI, non-centered parameterizations, reproducible seeds) that agents won't apply unprompted — always consult before writing Bayesian model code. Trigger on: building probabilistic/Bayesian models, prior elicitation, MCMC inference, convergence diagnostics (divergences, R-hat, ESS), model comparison (LOO-CV, ELPD, stacking weights), hierarchical/multilevel models, count regressions, logistic regression with uncertainty, prior sensitivity analysis, reporting Bayesian results, or mentions of PyMC, ArviZ, InferenceData, credible intervals, posterior distributions, shrinkage, uncertainty quantification. Also trigger for model comparison, diagnosing sampling problems, choosing priors, or presenting stats to non-technical audiences.

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Think and work like an expert Bayesian Statistician. Use when a task calls for Bayesian Statistician judgment. Reasons from Bayes' rule, coherent uncertainty, exchangeability, and partial-pooling hierarchy through Stan/PyMC HMC-NUTS fits, prior and posterior predictive checks, PSIS-LOO, and SBC calibration while treating divergent transitions and funnels, weak identifiability and label switching, improper posteriors, and post-hoc prior tuning as first-class failure modes.

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Fit probabilistic models to single-cell measurements for integration across experiments, cell annotation, combined RNA and protein or ATAC analysis, and gene expression comparisons. The skill covers input requirements, training checks, reference mapping, and interpretation of model uncertainty.

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• Integrating single-cell RNA data across experimental batches
• Assigning cell labels using partial annotations or a reference
• Analyzing RNA with protein or ATAC measurements

Build Bayesian models in PyMC to estimate effects and quantify uncertainty. Fit regression or hierarchical models, check sampling diagnostics, assess predictions against observed data, predict new groups, and compare models using predictive performance.

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• Estimate regression effects with uncertainty
• Model differences across patients or groups
• Inspect sampling diagnostics and predictive checks

Bayesian modeling with PyMC. Build hierarchical models, MCMC (NUTS), variational inference, LOO/WAIC comparison, posterior checks, for probabilistic programming and inference.

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Identify likely causal variants within GWAS loci using SuSiE for sum of single effects regression and FINEMAP for shotgun stochastic search. Computes posterior inclusion probabilities and credible sets to prioritize variants for functional follow-up. Use when narrowing GWAS association signals to candidate causal variants or building credible sets for functional validation.

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Test whether two traits share a causal variant at a genomic locus using Bayesian colocalization with coloc. Computes posterior probabilities for shared vs distinct causal variants between GWAS and eQTL signals. Use when determining if a GWAS signal and an eQTL share the same causal variant.

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Use when forecasting, estimating, or sizing risk — anchor on base rates, give ranges, update prior→likelihood→posterior on evidence, and factor unmeasured quantities into order-of-magnitude bounds.

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Identifies essential genes from CRISPR-Cas9 fitness screens using BAGEL2 (Kim & Hart 2021 Genome Med), a Bayesian classifier scoring per-gene Bayes Factors via log-likelihood ratios over per-sgRNA fold changes, calibrated against CEGv2 core-essentials (Hart 2017 G3, ~684 genes) and NEGv1 non-essentials (Hart 2014, ~927 genes). Covers the fc + bf + pr workflow, the linear-extrapolation improvement over BAGEL1 truncation, multi-target off-target correction, tumor-suppressor sensitivity (BAGEL2 detects enrichment), and BF calibration (BF >6 ≈ 90% posterior per Hart 2017; ~5% FDR by BAGEL convention). Use when classifying essential vs non-essential genes, calibrating BAGEL2 thresholds against PR curves, identifying tumor suppressors alongside essentials, comparing BAGEL2 hits to MAGeCK / drugZ, or generating publication-quality essentiality calls.

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Designs Bayesian clinical trials including Phase I dose-finding (BOIN, CRM, EWOC, mTPI-2), meta-analytic-predictive (MAP) priors with robust mixtures for external data borrowing, EXNEX for basket trials, hierarchical models for safety AE (Berry-Berry), Bayesian platform trials (I-SPY 2, GBM AGILE, REMAP-CAP), and posterior probability stopping rules. Covers FDA Bayesian Devices Guidance (2010), FDA Bayesian Methodology in Drugs Draft (January 2026), BOIN Fit-for-Purpose qualification (December 2021), and Project Optimus dose-optimisation. Use when designing dose-finding studies, platform trials, or sensitivity analyses with informative priors.

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Creates sashimi-style plots showing RNA-seq read coverage and splice junction counts using ggsashimi (general-purpose, condition-grouped overlays), rmats2sashimiplot (rMATS-output-aware), MAJIQ-VOILA (LSV posteriors interactive HTML), leafviz (leafcutter clusters Shiny), Jutils (tool-agnostic heatmaps and sashimi for rMATS/leafcutter/MntJULiP/MAJIQ output), or pyGenomeTracks (multi-track publication figures). Tool choice depends on the upstream differential-splicing tool's output format and the publication vs interactive use case. Use when visualizing specific splicing events, validating differential splicing calls, or producing publication-quality figures.

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Detects differential alternative splicing between conditions using rMATS-turbo (binomial LRT on junction counts), leafcutter (Dirichlet-multinomial GLM on intron clusters), MAJIQ V3 deltapsi/HET (Bayesian posterior on LSVs), SUPPA2 (empirical-null on TPM-derived PSI), or Shiba (junction-imbalance-corrected, 2025 SOTA at low coverage). Reports FDR-corrected significance and delta PSI effect sizes. Tools differ in statistical model, annotation dependence, calibration regime, and replicate-count requirements. Use when comparing splicing patterns between treatment groups, tissues, or disease states.

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apeglm provides Bayesian shrinkage estimators for effect sizes for a variety of GLM models, using approximation of the posterior for individual coefficients.

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BEER implements a Bayesian model for analyzing phage-immunoprecipitation sequencing (PhIP-seq) data. Given a PhIPData object, BEER returns posterior probabilities of enriched antibody responses, point estimates for the relative fold-change in comparison to negative control samples, and more. Additionally, BEER provides a convenient implementation for using edgeR to identify enriched antibody responses.

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epigraHMM provides a set of tools for the analysis of epigenomic data based on hidden Markov Models. It contains two separate peak callers, one for consensus peaks from biological or technical replicates, and one for differential peaks from multi-replicate multi-condition experiments. In differential peak calling, epigraHMM provides window-specific posterior probabilities associated with every possible combinatorial pattern of read enrichment across conditions.

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Think and work like an expert Gravitational Physicist. Use when a task calls for Gravitational Physicist judgment. Reasons from calibrated strain, colored non-stationary noise PSDs, matched-filter SNR, and Bayesian posteriors through PyCBC/GstLAL/cWB searches, Bilby/LALInference PE with NRSur/SEOBNR/IMRPhenom waveforms, and FAR/p_astro significance while treating glitch contamination, waveform-approximant mismatch, mass-spin and distance-inclination degeneracies, and unmodeled selection effects as first-class failure modes.

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Detects differential alternative splicing between conditions using rMATS-turbo (binomial LRT on junction counts), leafcutter (Dirichlet-multinomial GLM on intron clusters), MAJIQ V3 deltapsi/HET (Bayesian posterior on LSVs), SUPPA2 (empirical-null on TPM-derived PSI), or Shiba (junction-imbalance-corrected, 2025 SOTA at low coverage). Reports FDR-corrected significance and delta PSI effect sizes. Tools differ in statistical model, annotation dependence, calibration regime, and replicate-count requirements. Use when comparing splicing patterns between treatment groups, tissues, or disease states.

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Run Bayesian phylogenetic analysis with MrBayes, BEAST2, RevBayes, and PhyloBayes including MCMC convergence diagnostics and model comparison. Use when needing posterior probability support, Bayesian model averaging, site-heterogeneous models for deep phylogenies, or formal model comparison via stepping-stone sampling.

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Designs Bayesian clinical trials including Phase I dose-finding (BOIN, CRM, EWOC, mTPI-2), meta-analytic-predictive (MAP) priors with robust mixtures for external data borrowing, EXNEX for basket trials, hierarchical models for safety AE (Berry-Berry), Bayesian platform trials (I-SPY 2, GBM AGILE, REMAP-CAP), and posterior probability stopping rules. Covers FDA Bayesian Devices Guidance (2010), FDA Bayesian Methodology in Drugs Draft (January 2026), BOIN Fit-for-Purpose qualification (December 2021), and Project Optimus dose-optimisation. Use when designing dose-finding studies, platform trials, or sensitivity analyses with informative priors.

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Regression analysis, ANOVA, generalized linear models, Bayesian methods, and model selection. Covers the full modeling workflow from problem formulation through diagnostics -- linear regression, logistic regression, Poisson regression, mixed-effects models, prior specification, posterior inference, AIC/BIC comparison, cross-validation for model selection, and assumption checking. Use when fitting models, testing hypotheses, or selecting among competing statistical explanations.

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Bayesian data analysis — priors, likelihoods, posterior computation, model comparison, and honest reporting.

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Resume Treadmill LC (load-cell GRF) work after the 2026-08-17 English translation. Use when the user reopens treadmill_lc, asks where that work stopped, wants Antigravity/Cursor to continue coding, or mentions COP mediolateral/anteroposterior labels, tare/weight calibration files, or tests/treadmill_lc.

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