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Fit regression and time series models in Python, interpret coefficients, compare alternatives, and check model assumptions. Supports statistical diagnostics and forecasting, with confidence intervals and validation steps to assess uncertainty and predictive performance.
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Apply statsmodels in reproducible local data workflows with version-aware APIs, explicit assumptions, and validation. Use when the user chooses statsmodels or its strengths fit the task.
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因果推論・効果検証（A/B テスト / ABテスト / オンライン実験 / リフト / SRM / CUPED、観察データの処置効果 / ATE / ATT / CATE / 傾向スコア / propensity score / IPW / 二重頑健 / DML / causal forest、準実験 / 差の差 / DiD / イベントスタディ / 操作変数 / IV / 2SLS / 回帰不連続 / RDD / 合成コントロール）を実行したら必ずセットで出す図と値のルーター。 proportions_ztest, chisquare, statsmodels.stats.power, dowhy, econml, causalml, doubleml, propensity, LinearDML, IV2SLS, rdrobust, rddensity, pysyncon, treat*post がコードに現れたとき、またはユーザーが「ABテストの結果を 見て」「施策の効果を推定して」「差の差で」「傾向スコアで揃えて」「閾値前後で比較して」と言ったときに使う。SRM・ バランス・並行トレンド・first-stage に言及がなくても適用する。SKILL.md のルーティング表で設計を特定し、対応する references/<設計>.md を読んでから実行する。実験でない群間比較の検定は statistical-inference-diagnostics、 予測モデルの解釈（SHAP 等）は predictive-modeling-diagnostics を使う。
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予測モデリング（教師あり機械学習 / 予測モデル / 精度評価 / 交差検証 / リーク、決定木 / ランダムフォレスト / GBDT / LightGBM / XGBoost / CatBoost、モデル解釈 / 特徴量重要度 / SHAP / PDP / ICE、時系列 / 季節性 / ARIMA / SARIMA / Prophet / VAR / 変化点 / 時系列予測）を実行したら必ずセットで出す図と値のルーター。train_test_split, cross_val_score, GridSearchCV, Pipeline, TimeSeriesSplit, DecisionTree, RandomForest, lgb., xgb., CatBoost, dtreeviz, shap., permutation_importance, PartialDependenceDisplay, statsmodels.tsa, SARIMAX, STL, adfuller, plot_acf, Prophet, ruptures がコードに現れたとき、または ユーザーが「予測モデルを作って」「精度を出して」「どの変数が効いているか」「来月を予測して」「季節性を見て」と 言ったときに使う。診断・リーク・ベースライン・残差に言及がなくても適用する。SKILL.md のルーティング表で手法を特定し、 対応する references/<手法>.md を読んでから実行する。回帰係数の推論・検定は statistical-inference-diagnostics、 効果推定は causal-inference-diagnostics を使う。
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Forecast infrastructure and application metrics using Prophet or statsmodels for capacity planning, cost optimization, and proactive scaling. Visualize predictions in Grafana and set up alerts for projected resource exhaustion. Use when forecasting infrastructure capacity needs for CPU, memory, or disk, planning hardware procurement for next quarter, predicting cost trends to optimize cloud spending, or setting up proactive scaling policies based on predicted load.
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Statsmodels is Python's premier library for statistical modeling, providing tools for estimation, inference, and diagnostics across a wide range of statistical methods.
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Analyze experimental or survey data with guidance on choosing statistical tests, checking assumptions, estimating effect sizes and uncertainty, planning sample sizes, and writing results in APA style, a standard format for research reporting.
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Plan study sample sizes, estimate statistical power—the chance of detecting an assumed effect—and find the smallest detectable effect. Supports standard tests and simulations for complex designs, with sensitivity analyses and sample size justifications.
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Combine laboratory animal welfare measurements into reference-relative RELSA severity scores. Analyze individual trajectories, explore forecasts for specified observation times, and derive candidate score zones, with explicit checks on normalization, reference selection, prediction intervals, and evaluation limits.
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Apply statistical tests to financial time series, model changing volatility, and diagnose regression problems. Estimate uncertainty in strategy metrics through bootstrap resampling, which repeatedly samples existing data, and organize findings into a statistical testing report.
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Analyze how assets move together and test cointegration, a long-term equilibrium relationship between prices. Find related assets, group similar holdings, examine changing correlations, and estimate hedge ratios and reversion times for pairs-trading research.
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Plan and analyze A/B tests, prepare tabular data, and train and evaluate prediction models. Estimate intervention effects from observational data, track model experiments with MLflow, and translate statistical findings into business decisions.
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Guided statistical analysis with test selection and reporting. Use when you need help choosing appropriate tests for your data, assumption checking, power analysis, and APA-formatted results. Best for academic research reporting, test selection guidance. For implementing specific models programmatically use statsmodels.
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Statistical models library for Python. Use when you need specific model classes (OLS, GLM, mixed models, ARIMA) with detailed diagnostics, residuals, and inference. Best for econometrics, time series, rigorous inference with coefficient tables. For guided statistical test selection with APA reporting use statistical-analysis.
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Classical end-to-end empirical analysis workflow in the traditional Python econometric stack — pandas + numpy + scipy + statsmodels + linearmodels + pyfixest + rdrobust + econml + causalml + matplotlib/seaborn. **Defaults to economics empirical-paper style** (AER / QJE / AEJ) — every run produces a publication-ready output set with a multi-column regression table (M1→M6 progressive controls/FE) as the centerpiece, plus Table 1 (descriptives), mechanism / heterogeneity / robustness tables, and event-study + coefficient + trend figures. Covers the full 8-step pipeline an applied economist or quantitative social scientist runs on every paper — (1) data cleaning, (2) variable construction & transformation, (3) descriptive statistics & Table 1, (4) statistical diagnostic tests, (5) baseline empirical modeling, (6) robustness battery, (7) further analysis (mechanism, heterogeneity, mediation, moderation), (8) publication-ready tables & figures. **Also covers two parallel domain modes that share the same 8-step scaffolding** — **Mode A — Epidemiology / public health** (target-trial emulation via `zepid` / hand-rolled `pandas`, IPTW + g-formula + TMLE doubly-robust triplet via `zepid` / `econml` / `lifelines`, Mendelian randomization via `pymr` / `mrtool` (or `rpy2` → `MendelianRandomization`/`TwoSampleMR`), KM / AFT / Cox survival via `lifelines`, E-value sensitivity, principal stratification — STROBE / TRIPOD reporting), and **Mode B — ML causal inference** (DML via `econml.dml` / `doubleml`, S/T/X/R/DR meta-learners via `econml.metalearners` / `causalml`, causal forest via `econml.grf` / `causalml`, Dragonnet / TARNet / CEVAE neural causal via `causalml`, BCF via `pymc-bart` / `bcf-py`, matrix completion, CATE distribution + policy tree via `econml.policy` / `policytree-py`, off-policy evaluation, conformal causal via `mapie`, fairness audit via `fairlearn`, DAG learning via `causal-learn` / `cdt` / LLM-assisted). Prescribes which library to reach for at each step, shows the canonical code, and links to deeper `references/` files for variant-specific patterns. Use when the user asks for a **complete empirical analysis** in Python, wants to replicate an applied-economics paper from scratch, needs a reproducible workflow that is NOT opinionated on any single vertical package (contrast with StatsPAI), wants explicit control over every estimator and diagnostic, or asks "how do I write a full empirical pipeline in Python?". Also triggers when the user names a specific classical step in isolation — "winsorize at 1/99%", "run Breusch-Pagan", "build a Table 1 balance table", "do a placebo test", "event study plot", "mediation analysis" — and wants it wired into the broader pipeline. Mode A triggers on "target trial emulation", "IPTW", "TMLE", "Mendelian randomization", "STROBE", "公共健康", "流行病学". Mode B triggers on "DML", "double machine learning", "causal forest", "meta-learner", "Dragonnet", "BCF", "policy tree", "conformal causal", "fairness audit", "因果机器学习".
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Guided statistical analysis for research data - test selection, assumption checking, effect sizes, power analysis, Bayesian alternatives, and APA-formatted reporting. Use whenever a user wants to compare groups, test a hypothesis, analyze experimental or survey data, check statistical assumptions, compute required sample sizes, or write up results - even if they never name a specific test. Covers t-tests, ANOVA, chi-square, correlation, regression, non-parametric and Bayesian methods. For low-level model APIs, see the statsmodels and pymc skills.
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Zero-shot time series forecasting with Google's TimesFM foundation model. Use this skill when forecasting ANY univariate time series — sales, sensor readings, stock prices, energy demand, patient vitals, weather, or scientific measurements — without training a custom model. Automatically checks system RAM/GPU before loading the model, supports CSV/DataFrame/array inputs, and returns point forecasts with calibrated prediction intervals. Includes a preflight system checker script that MUST be run before first use to verify the machine can load the model. For classical statistical time series models (ARIMA, SARIMAX, VAR) use statsmodels; for time series classification/clustering use aeon.
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Statistical modeling toolkit. OLS, GLM, logistic, ARIMA, time series, hypothesis tests, diagnostics, AIC/BIC, for rigorous statistical inference and econometric analysis.
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Perform statistical tests, hypothesis testing, correlation analysis, and multiple testing corrections using scipy and statsmodels. Works with ANY LLM provider (GPT, Gemini, Claude, etc.).
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对数据按指定列分组后进行OLS回归，提取各变量的系数、t值和p值，并将结果汇总保存为CSV文件。
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Symbolic math in Python: exact algebra, calculus (derivatives, integrals, limits), equation solving, symbolic matrices, ODEs, code gen (lambdify, C/Fortran). Use for exact symbolic results. For numerical use numpy/scipy; for stats use statsmodels.
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MATLAB/GNU Octave numerical computing: matrices, linear algebra, ODEs, signal processing, optimization, statistics, scientific visualization. MATLAB-syntax examples run on both. For Python use numpy/scipy; for statistical modeling use statsmodels.
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Guided statistical analysis: test choice, assumption checks, effect sizes, power, APA reporting. Pick tests, verify assumptions, or format results for publication. Covers frequentist (t-test, ANOVA, chi-square, regression, correlation, survival, count, reliability) and Bayesian. Use statsmodels or pymc-bayesian-modeling to fit.
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Time-to-event modeling with scikit-survival: Cox PH (elastic net), Random Survival Forests, Boosting, SVMs for censored data. C-index, Brier, time-dependent AUC; Kaplan-Meier, Nelson-Aalen, competing risks. Pipeline/GridSearchCV compatible. Use statsmodels for frequentist, pymc for Bayesian, lifelines for parametric.
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