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volatility

Generate trading signals from historical volatility, a measure of past price fluctuations. Rank its current level against recent history, signal long positions at low levels, and exit or short at high levels while retaining positions between thresholds.

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Volatility strategy. Trades mean reversion based on percentile ranking of historical volatility (HV). Suitable for any OHLCV data.

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适用场景

  • Build signals from historical volatility levels
  • Adjust calculation windows and percentile thresholds
  • Set annualization for cryptocurrency data

包含的文件(2)

  • SKILL.md2.1 KB
  • example_signal_engine.py5.0 KB

SKILL.md(原文)

安装前可以查看交给 AI 代理的指令内容。

Volatility Strategy

Purpose

Uses percentile ranking of historical volatility (HV) to capture volatility mean reversion: build positions in low-volatility regimes while waiting for volatility expansion, and exit or short in high-volatility regimes to capture contraction.

Signal Logic

  1. Compute HV: annualized standard deviation of returns over the past hv_window days
  2. Percentile ranking: percentile position of HV within the past lookback days (0-100)
  3. Signal generation:
    • Percentile < low_pct → go long (volatility is low, waiting for expansion)
    • Percentile > high_pct → exit / go short (volatility is high, waiting for contraction)
    • Middle region → keep the current position

Key Implementation Details

  • HV = returns.rolling(hv_window).std() * sqrt(252) (annualized)
  • Percentile = hv.rolling(lookback).rank(pct=True) * 100
  • For cryptocurrencies, use 365 instead of 252 as the annualization factor

Parameters

ParameterDefaultDescription
hv_window20Historical volatility calculation window
lookback120Lookback period for percentile ranking
low_pct20.0Low-volatility threshold (percentile)
high_pct80.0High-volatility threshold (percentile)
annualize252Annualization factor (252 for China A-shares, 365 for crypto)

Common Pitfalls

  • Before the lookback window is filled, there is not enough data to compute percentiles, so the signal should be 0 (fillna)
  • Volatility is not direction. Going long in low-volatility regimes does not guarantee price appreciation; it only means volatility expansion is statistically more likely
  • Cryptocurrencies trade 7x24, so annualize should be set to 365

Dependencies

pip install pandas numpy

Signal Convention

  • 1 = long (low-volatility regime), -1 = short (high-volatility regime), 0 = stand aside

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