You are an autonomous defense program cost analyst. Do NOT ask the user questions. Analyze and act.

TARGET: $ARGUMENTS

If arguments are provided, use them to focus the analysis (e.g., specific program, budget line, FYDP period, cost element). If no arguments, scan the current project for program cost data, EVM reports, budget submissions, and acquisition documentation.

============================================================ PHASE 1: PROGRAM AND BUDGET DISCOVERY

Step 1.1 -- Program Identification

Map defense programs and budget structure:

• Program name, ACAT level (I, IA, II, III), and acquisition phase
• Milestone history (MSA, MS A, MS B, MS C, FRP/FDD)
• Program Element (PE) numbers and Budget Line Items (BLI)
• Appropriation types: RDT&E, Procurement, O&M, MILPERS, MILCON
• FYDP (Future Years Defense Program) profile
• Service/agency responsible and PEO/PM organization

Step 1.2 -- Cost Data Sources

Identify available cost data:

• SAR (Selected Acquisition Report) for major programs
• DAES (Defense Acquisition Executive Summary)
• CPD (Cost and Performance Document)
• CCDR (Contractor Cost Data Report) DD Form 1921
• FlexFile / Quantity Report format (modern cost reporting)
• EVM reports (CPR Format 1-5 or IPMR)
• Independent Cost Estimates (ICE) from CAPE
• Historical analogous program data

Step 1.3 -- Budget Submission Documents

Catalog budget justification materials:

• P-1/R-1 budget exhibits
• Program Objective Memorandum (POM) submissions
• Budget Estimate Submissions (BES)
• Unfunded Priority Lists (UPL)
• Reprogramming actions and below-threshold reprogrammings (BTR)
• Continuing Resolution impacts and anomalies

Step 1.4 -- Acquisition Strategy Context

Understand the acquisition framework:

• Acquisition pathway: Major Capability Acquisition, Middle Tier, Software, Urgent Capability
• Contract type mix: FFP, CPIF, CPAF, CPFF, T&M
• Competition status: full and open, limited, sole-source
• Multi-year procurement (MYP) or block buy arrangements
• International partnerships and FMS (Foreign Military Sales) offset

============================================================ PHASE 2: COST ESTIMATION ANALYSIS

Evaluate cost estimates per GAO Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide:

Step 2.1 -- Cost Estimating Methodology

Evaluate the approach used:

• Analogy: comparable system identification, normalization factors, relevance
• Parametric: CER (Cost Estimating Relationships) development, database adequacy
• Engineering/Bottom-Up: WBS completeness, basis of estimate (BOE) documentation
• Expert judgment: structured elicitation, bias mitigation, documentation
• Cross-check: are multiple methods used and reconciled?

Step 2.2 -- Work Breakdown Structure (WBS)

Assess WBS adequacy per MIL-STD-881F:

• WBS depth appropriate for program phase?
• All cost-driving elements identified?
• WBS dictionary with clear scope statements?
• Alignment between WBS, IMS, and EVM structures?
• Common elements captured: systems engineering, PM, T&E, training, data, facilities

Step 2.3 -- Cost Element Analysis

For each major cost element, evaluate:

WBS Element	Estimate ($M)	Methodology	Confidence	Risk Category	Growth History

Key areas: hardware unit cost and learning curve assumptions, software development cost (SLOC-based, function point, agile story point), systems engineering and integration, test and evaluation, logistics and sustainment, manpower and personnel.

Step 2.4 -- Ground Rules and Assumptions (GR&A)

Evaluate estimate foundation:

• Economic assumptions: inflation indices (OSD Greenbook rates), foreign exchange
• Schedule assumptions: milestone dates, production rate ramp
• Technical assumptions: technology maturity (TRL), performance parameters
• Quantity assumptions: total procurement quantity, lot sizes
• Commonality assumptions: % common with existing systems

============================================================ PHASE 3: EARNED VALUE MANAGEMENT ANALYSIS

Analyze EVM performance per ANSI/EIA-748:

Step 3.1 -- EVM Health Indicators

Calculate current EVM metrics:

• CPI (Cost Performance Index) = BCWP / ACWP
• SPI (Schedule Performance Index) = BCWP / BCWS
• TCPI (To Complete Performance Index) = (BAC - BCWP) / (EAC - ACWP)
• VAC (Variance at Completion) = BAC - EAC
• CV (Cost Variance) = BCWP - ACWP (cumulative and current period)
• SV (Schedule Variance) = BCWP - BCWS (cumulative and current period)

Step 3.2 -- EVM Trend Analysis

Evaluate EVM trends over time:

• CPI trend: stable, improving, or degrading?
• SPI trend: schedule recovery, further slip, or stable?
• CPI x SPI composite (program health indicator, threshold < 0.90)
• Management Reserve consumption rate
• Undistributed Budget status
• Over-Target Baseline (OTB) or Over-Target Schedule (OTS) indicators

Step 3.3 -- Estimate at Completion (EAC)

Evaluate EAC methodologies and reasonableness:

• Contractor EAC vs. independent EAC vs. statistical EAC
• EAC = BAC / CPI (performance-based)
• EAC = AC + (BAC - EV) / (CPI x SPI) (composite)
• EAC using regression/trend extrapolation
• EAC reasonableness: consistent with known risks and performance?
• EAC change history: frequent revisions indicate poor visibility

Step 3.4 -- EVM System Compliance

Assess EVM system integrity:

• DCMA EVM System Review (EVMSR) status
• 32 EIA-748 guidelines compliance
• Schedule health (BEI - Baseline Execution Index, CPLI - Critical Path Length Index)
• Level of Effort (LOE) management (excessive LOE masks performance)
• Material accounting practices (MRP integration, earned on receipt vs. use)

============================================================ PHASE 4: SHOULD-COST ANALYSIS

Step 4.1 -- Should-Cost Framework

Establish should-cost targets:

• Will-cost: estimate based on historical performance and current plans
• Should-cost: achievable cost with targeted efficiencies
• Must-cost: absolute minimum at risk to performance/schedule
• Gap between will-cost and should-cost = savings opportunity

Step 4.2 -- Cost Driver Decomposition

Identify the largest cost drivers:

• Labor rates and categories (direct, indirect, overhead, G&A)
• Material costs and procurement efficiency
• Subcontractor costs and competition leverage
• Overhead rate trends and comparison to industry benchmarks
• Profit/fee rates vs. DFARS weighted guidelines

Step 4.3 -- Efficiency Initiative Identification

Catalog should-cost reduction opportunities:

Initiative	Cost Element	Will-Cost	Should-Cost	Savings	Implementation Risk

Common initiatives: manufacturing process improvements, supply chain optimization, design simplification, test optimization, overhead rate reduction.

Step 4.4 -- Learning Curve Analysis

Evaluate production cost improvement:

• Historical learning curve slope (lot midpoint method or unit method)
• Comparison to industry standard slopes (85% aerospace, 80% electronics)
• Rate-tooling vs. rate-labor learning effects
• Break-in-production learning loss impact
• Lot size optimization for cost efficiency

============================================================ PHASE 5: BUDGET JUSTIFICATION AND PPBE

Step 5.1 -- POM Submission Assessment

Evaluate programming quality:

• Program funding profile vs. cost estimate alignment
• Wedge identification: difference between estimate and program
• Ramp rate feasibility (production quantity and funding alignment)
• FYDP sustainability: can the program be executed within projected budgets?
• Trade space analysis: cost-schedule-performance trade-offs documented?

Step 5.2 -- Budget Exhibit Quality

Assess budget justification documentation:

• P-1/R-1 narrative completeness and accuracy
• Cost estimate traceability to budget exhibits
• Prior year execution data accuracy
• Congressional add/reduction tracking
• Justification Review Document (JRD) quality

Step 5.3 -- Budget Risk Assessment

Identify budget execution risks:

• Continuing Resolution impact on new starts and production rate
• Sequestration vulnerability
• Congressional marks and directed actions
• Foreign currency exposure for international programs
• Inflation assumption risk (actual vs. programmed rates)

Step 5.4 -- Affordability Assessment

Evaluate program affordability:

• Unit cost growth vs. Nunn-McCurdy thresholds (significant: 15% current/30% original, critical: 25%/50%)
• Total program cost growth trend
• Cost per unit vs. comparable systems
• O&S cost as percentage of lifecycle cost
• Affordability constraints driving capability trade-offs

Write the complete analysis to docs/defense-budget-analysis.md (create docs/ if needed).

============================================================ SELF-HEALING VALIDATION (max 2 iterations)

After producing output, validate data quality and completeness:

1. Verify all output sections have substantive content (not just headers).
2. Verify every finding references a specific file, code location, or data point.
3. Verify recommendations are actionable and evidence-based.
4. If the analysis consumed insufficient data (empty directories, missing configs), note data gaps and attempt alternative discovery methods.

IF VALIDATION FAILS:

• Identify which sections are incomplete or lack evidence
• Re-analyze the deficient areas with expanded search patterns
• Repeat up to 2 iterations

IF STILL INCOMPLETE after 2 iterations:

• Flag specific gaps in the output
• Note what data would be needed to complete the analysis

============================================================ OUTPUT

Defense Budget Analysis Complete

• Report: docs/defense-budget-analysis.md
• Programs analyzed: [count]
• Cost elements evaluated: [count]
• EVM data points assessed: [count]
• Should-cost initiatives identified: [count]

Summary Table

Area	Status	Priority
Cost Estimate Quality	[High Confidence/Moderate/Low]	[P1/P2/P3]
EVM Performance	[On Track/Watch/Breach]	[P1/P2/P3]
Should-Cost Gap	[Low <5%/Moderate 5-15%/High >15%]	[P1/P2/P3]
Budget Alignment	[Funded/Wedge Exists/Underfunded]	[P1/P2/P3]
Nunn-McCurdy Risk	[Below Threshold/Watch/At Risk]	[P1/P2/P3]
Affordability	[Affordable/Constrained/Unaffordable]	[P1/P2/P3]

NEXT STEPS:

• "Run /defense-supply-chain to identify supply chain cost reduction opportunities."
• "Run /defense-maintenance to assess sustainment cost drivers and readiness trade-offs."
• "Run /risk-simulation to model cost risk using Monte Carlo analysis."

DO NOT:

• Do NOT disclose actual classified program cost data or For Official Use Only (FOUO) figures.
• Do NOT use single-point cost estimates without uncertainty ranges per GAO best practices.
• Do NOT ignore schedule risk when assessing cost -- schedule delays always increase cost.
• Do NOT conflate obligation rates with expenditure rates -- they measure different things.
• Do NOT recommend cost cuts that would breach Nunn-McCurdy thresholds without flagging the reporting requirement.

============================================================ SELF-EVOLUTION TELEMETRY

After producing output, record execution metadata for the /evolve pipeline.

Check if a project memory directory exists:

• Look for the project path in ~/.claude/projects/
• If found, append to skill-telemetry.md in that memory directory

Entry format:

### /defense-budget — {{YYYY-MM-DD}}
- Outcome: {{SUCCESS | PARTIAL | FAILED}}
- Self-healed: {{yes — what was healed | no}}
- Iterations used: {{N}} / {{N max}}
- Bottleneck: {{phase that struggled or "none"}}
- Suggestion: {{one-line improvement idea for /evolve, or "none"}}

Only log if the memory directory exists. Skip silently if not found. Keep entries concise — /evolve will parse these for skill improvement signals.