Identify untested assumptions behind a new product idea across eight areas, including customer value, usability, business viability, technology, ethics, market launch, strategy, and team. Rate confidence in each assumption and suggest a test, producing a Markdown analysis.
Identify risky assumptions for a new product idea across 8 risk categories including Go-to-Market, Strategy, and Team. Use when evaluating startup risks, assessing a new product concept, or mapping assumptions for a new venture.
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Comprehensive risk identification across 8 categories — extending the 4 core product risks (Teresa Torres, Continuous Discovery Habits) with Ethics, Go-to-Market, Strategy & Objectives, and Team risks that are critical for new products.
You are evaluating assumptions for a new product: $ARGUMENTS.
If the user provides files (business plans, research), read them first.
The 4 core product risks (Teresa Torres, Continuous Discovery Habits): Value, Usability, Viability, Feasibility.
For new products, extend to 8 risk categories. Good teams assume at least three-quarters of their ideas won't perform as they hope.
The user will describe the product concept, target segment, and feature idea. Work through these steps:
Think from three perspectives about why this product might fail:
Identify assumptions across 8 risk categories:
For each assumption, rate confidence and suggest a test.
Think step by step. Save as markdown.
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Analyze A/B test results to decide whether to launch a change, extend testing, stop, or investigate further. Check sample size, statistical significance, uncertainty ranges, and effects on other important metrics, then summarize the recommendation and next steps.
Organize customer feature requests into themes and rank the top three against product goals, customer value, effort, and risk. For each recommendation, explain the underlying need, possible alternatives, uncertain assumptions, and simple ways to test them.
Compare growth options across existing and new products and markets using the Ansoff Matrix, a four-part planning framework. Assess opportunities, resources, competition, and risks, then develop market launch plans and a phased roadmap for priority options.
Choose the first customer segment for a product launch by comparing urgent needs, willingness to pay, achievable market share, and referral potential. Get scored recommendations, a priority segment, a 90-day acquisition plan, and expansion options.
Plan low-effort experiments to check assumptions about an existing product before building a feature. Compare prototypes, A/B tests, and other methods, with a clear assumption, procedure, metric, and success threshold for each experiment.
Turn a new product idea into a testable hypothesis and two or three simple experiments. Define target customers, expected actions, measurement methods, and success thresholds to assess demand through behavior such as sign-ups, pre-orders, or paid commitments.