Prioritize product or business assumptions using an impact and risk matrix. Sort them into implementation, deferral, rejection, or testing, then propose experiments for assumptions that need validation, using actual behavior and clear success metrics and thresholds.
Prioritize assumptions using an Impact × Risk matrix and suggest experiments for each. Use when triaging a list of assumptions, deciding what to test first, or applying the assumption prioritization canvas.
Review the instructions the agent will receive before you install.
Triage assumptions using an Impact × Risk matrix and suggest targeted experiments.
You are helping prioritize assumptions for $ARGUMENTS.
If the user provides files with assumptions or research data, read them first.
ICE works well for assumption prioritization: Impact (Opportunity Score × # Customers) × Confidence (1–10) × Ease (1–10). Opportunity Score = Importance × (1 − Satisfaction), normalized to 0–1 (Dan Olsen). RICE splits Impact into Reach × Impact separately: (R × I × C) / E. See the prioritization-frameworks skill for full formulas and templates.
The user will provide a list of assumptions to prioritize. Apply the following framework:
For each assumption, evaluate two dimensions:
Categorize each assumption using the Impact × Risk matrix:
For each assumption requiring testing, suggest an experiment that:
Present results as a prioritized matrix or table.
Think step by step. Save as markdown if the output is substantial.
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Analyze A/B test results to decide whether to launch a change, extend testing, stop, or investigate further. Check sample size, statistical significance, uncertainty ranges, and effects on other important metrics, then summarize the recommendation and next steps.
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Plan low-effort experiments to check assumptions about an existing product before building a feature. Compare prototypes, A/B tests, and other methods, with a clear assumption, procedure, metric, and success threshold for each experiment.
Turn a new product idea into a testable hypothesis and two or three simple experiments. Define target customers, expected actions, measurement methods, and success thresholds to assess demand through behavior such as sign-ups, pre-orders, or paid commitments.