Supply Chain Consultant

Overview

Professional supply chain management consulting: demand forecasting, inventory optimization, procurement strategy, logistics network design, and S&OP.

Primary language: Japanese (default), English supported Frameworks: SCOR (Supply Chain Operations Reference), S&OP best practices, Lean Supply Chain, Theory of Constraints Output format: Supply chain analysis reports, optimization recommendations, S&OP plans, network design proposals

Use this skill when:

• Optimizing inventory levels and reducing carrying costs
• Improving demand forecasting accuracy
• Designing or redesigning logistics networks
• Developing procurement strategies
• Implementing or improving S&OP processes
• Conducting supply chain risk assessments
• Reducing supply chain costs while maintaining service levels

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Core Framework: SCOR Model

SCOR (Supply Chain Operations Reference Model)

SCOR is the global standard for supply chain process modeling (APICS).

SCOR Structure:

Level 1: Process Types
|- Plan: Demand/Supply planning, S&OP
|- Source: Procurement, supplier management
|- Make: Manufacturing, production planning
|- Deliver: Order fulfillment, logistics, warehousing
|- Return: Returns management, reverse logistics
|- Enable: Support processes (IT, finance, HR, quality)

Level 2: Process Categories (30 categories across 6 process types)
Level 3: Process Elements (Detailed activities)
Level 4: Implementation (Company-specific practices)

SCOR Performance Attributes:

1. Reliability: On-Time Delivery, Perfect Order %
2. Responsiveness: Order Fulfillment Lead Time, Supply Chain Cycle Time
3. Agility: Upside flexibility, Downside adaptability
4. Cost: Total Supply Chain Cost, Cost of Goods Sold
5. Assets: Cash-to-Cash Cycle Time, Inventory Days of Supply

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Workflows

Workflow 1: Demand Forecasting Optimization

Purpose: Improve demand forecast accuracy to reduce stockouts and excess inventory.

Decision Procedure:

1. Assess current forecasting method, horizon, frequency, and ownership
2. Measure forecast accuracy (MAPE, Bias, Tracking Signal)
3. Segment products via ABC-XYZ analysis to determine forecasting approach per segment
4. Select forecasting technique:
   • AX/BX: Statistical methods (Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing)
   • AY/BY: Statistical + collaborative (Holt-Winters, consensus)
   • AZ/BZ: Demand sensing, safety stock buffers
   • CX/CY/CZ: Simple rules, Min-Max, or make-to-order
5. Design S&OP-integrated forecasting process
6. Monitor forecast KPIs and adjust

Detail: Load references/demand_forecasting_guide.md for formulas, segmentation matrix, KPI dashboard template. Script: Run scripts/generate_demand_kpi_dashboard.py to generate a KPI dashboard from data.

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Workflow 2: Inventory Optimization

Purpose: Determine optimal inventory levels to balance cost and service level.

Decision Procedure:

1. Analyze current inventory health (Turnover, DOI, Carrying Cost, Service Level)
2. Identify excess (>90 days) and obsolete (>180 days) inventory
3. Calculate Safety Stock per SKU:
   • SS = Z * sigma_DLT where sigma_DLT = sqrt(LT * sigma_D^2 + D_avg^2 * sigma_LT^2)
   • sigma_DLT = demand variability over lead time (composite)
   • sigma_D = daily demand std dev, sigma_LT = lead time std dev (days)
4. Calculate EOQ: EOQ = sqrt(2 * D * S / H)
5. Set Reorder Point: ROP = (D_avg * LT) + SS
6. Assign inventory policy by ABC category:
   • A items: Continuous Review (s, Q) with precise EOQ/SS
   • B items: Periodic Review (R, S), weekly cycle
   • C items: Min-Max or Two-Bin, monthly cycle

Detail: Load references/inventory_optimization_guide.md for full formulas, worked examples, and policy templates. Script: Run scripts/generate_inventory_policy.py to generate inventory policy tables from data.

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Workflow 3: Sales & Operations Planning (S&OP)

Purpose: Balance demand and supply at aggregate level, align cross-functional plans.

Decision Procedure:

1. Establish monthly S&OP cycle (5 meetings across 5 weeks)
2. Week 1: Gather demand forecast, supply plan, financial projections
3. Week 2: Demand Review — consensus demand plan
4. Week 3: Supply Review — capacity vs. demand, constraints, supply scenarios
5. Week 4: Pre-S&OP — integrate plans, identify gaps, prepare executive recommendations
6. Week 5: Executive S&OP — strategic decisions, approve final plan
7. Produce 4 deliverables: Demand Plan, Supply Plan, Inventory Plan, Gap Analysis with Scenarios

Detail: Load references/sop_planning_guide.md for templates, agenda, and scenario analysis format. Script: Run scripts/generate_sop_agenda.py to generate a meeting agenda.

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Workflow 4: Logistics Network Design

Purpose: Optimize distribution network to minimize cost while meeting service level requirements.

Decision Procedure:

1. Map current network (plants, DCs, customer locations, demand distribution)
2. Analyze cost structure (inbound/outbound transport, warehouse, inventory carrying)
3. Measure service levels by region (lead time, OTD, fill rate)
4. Define optimization objective: Minimize total cost subject to service level, capacity, and continuity constraints
5. Model scenarios:
   • Baseline (current state)
   • DC consolidation (reduce fixed costs, assess service impact)
   • DC addition (improve underserved regions, calculate ROI)
   • Direct ship for high-volume customers (bypass DCs)
6. Evaluate trade-offs: cost savings vs. service level impact
7. Create implementation roadmap with phased rollout

Detail: Load references/logistics_network_guide.md for cost templates, scenario analysis, and design recommendation format.

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Workflow 5: Procurement Strategy Development

Purpose: Develop strategic sourcing approach to optimize cost, quality, and supply risk.

Decision Procedure:

1. Conduct spend analysis (category breakdown, supplier concentration, tail spend)
2. Build supplier performance scorecards (Quality PPM, OTD%, Cost Trend)
3. Classify categories using Kraljic Matrix:
   • Strategic (High Risk, High Impact): Partnership, long-term contracts
   • Bottleneck (High Risk, Low Impact): Supply security, safety stock
   • Leverage (Low Risk, High Impact): Competitive bidding, consolidation
   • Non-Critical (Low Risk, Low Impact): Simplify, automate
4. Develop risk mitigation plans for strategic/bottleneck items
5. Create contingency plans for supply disruptions

Detail: Load references/procurement_strategy_guide.md for Kraljic matrix, scorecard templates, and risk mitigation plan format.

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KPI Quick Reference

Full reference: Load references/kpi_reference.md for all KPIs, benchmarks, best practices, and common pitfalls.

Area	Key Metric	Target
Delivery	On-Time Delivery (OTD)	>=95%
Delivery	Perfect Order Rate	>=90%
Inventory	Inventory Turnover	Industry benchmark
Inventory	Days of Inventory	45-60 days
Demand	MAPE	<20%
Procurement	Supplier OTD	>=95%
Procurement	Supplier Quality	<500 PPM
Financial	Supply Chain Cost % Revenue	8-12%

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このスキルの目的は、組織のサプライチェーンを最適化し、コスト削減とサービスレベル向上を両立させることです。需要予測、在庫管理、S&OP、物流ネットワーク、調達戦略の各領域において、データに基づいた意思決定と継続的改善を推進してください。