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trade-hypothesis-ideator

Turn trade logs, journal notes, and market observations into ranked trading hypotheses that experiments can test and disprove. Produce cards with experiment designs and stopping criteria, with optional strategy file exports for hypotheses marked for further investigation.

OriginalShow the original description

Generate falsifiable trade strategy hypotheses from market data, trade logs, and journal snippets. Use when you have a structured input bundle and want ranked hypothesis cards with experiment designs, kill criteria, and optional strategy.yaml export compatible with edge-finder-candidate/v1.

Run score Not tested

See how to install

Good for

  • Turn trade logs and journal notes into hypotheses
  • Develop experiments from market observations
  • Rank hypotheses and define stopping criteria
  • Export promising hypotheses as strategy files

Files included (28)

  • SKILL.md2.7 KB
  • examples/example_input.json2.5 KB
  • examples/example_output.json3.3 KB
  • examples/sample_input.json1.8 KB
  • prompts/critique_prompt_template.md309 B
  • prompts/developer_prompt_template.md405 B
  • prompts/system_prompt.md406 B
  • references/evidence_quality_guide.md654 B
  • references/hypothesis_types.md428 B
  • requirements.txt123 B
  • schemas/hypothesis_card.schema.json3.0 KB
  • schemas/input_bundle.schema.json2.2 KB
  • schemas/output_bundle.schema.json1.5 KB
  • schemas/raw_hypotheses.schema.json388 B
  • scripts/pipeline/__init__.py0 B
  • scripts/pipeline/evidence_extractor.py3.8 KB
  • scripts/pipeline/format_output.py12.8 KB
  • scripts/pipeline/normalize.py6.6 KB
  • scripts/pipeline/ranking.py2.6 KB
  • scripts/pipeline/strategy_exporter.py9.8 KB
  • scripts/run_hypothesis_ideator.py6.7 KB
  • scripts/tests/conftest.py1.1 KB
  • scripts/tests/test_evidence_extractor.py2.7 KB
  • scripts/tests/test_format_output.py4.1 KB
  • scripts/tests/test_guardrails.py5.5 KB
  • scripts/tests/test_normalize.py5.3 KB
  • scripts/tests/test_ranking.py2.7 KB
  • scripts/tests/test_strategy_exporter.py8.0 KB

SKILL.md (original)

Review the instructions the agent will receive before you install.

Trade Hypothesis Ideator

Generate 1-5 structured hypothesis cards from a normalized input bundle, critique and rank them, then optionally export pursue cards into strategy.yaml + metadata.json artifacts.

When to Use

  • After gathering trade logs, journal entries, or market observations that suggest a potential edge
  • When you have a structured input bundle (JSON) with evidence snippets and want falsifiable hypotheses
  • To bridge qualitative observations into quantitative experiment designs
  • Before committing capital to validate a new strategy idea with kill criteria

Prerequisites

  • Input JSON bundle with one or more of: trade_log, journal_snippets, market_data, observations
  • Python 3.9+ with pyyaml installed
  • No external API keys required (pure calculation skill)

Workflow

  1. Receive input JSON bundle.
  2. Run pass 1 normalization + evidence extraction.
  3. Generate hypotheses with prompts:
    • prompts/system_prompt.md
    • prompts/developer_prompt_template.md (inject {{evidence_summary}})
  4. Critique hypotheses with prompts/critique_prompt_template.md.
  5. Run pass 2 ranking + output formatting + guardrails.
  6. Optionally export pursue hypotheses via Step H strategy exporter.

Scripts

  • Pass 1 (evidence summary):
python3 skills/trade-hypothesis-ideator/scripts/run_hypothesis_ideator.py \
  --input skills/trade-hypothesis-ideator/examples/example_input.json \
  --output-dir reports/
  • Pass 2 (rank + output + optional export):
python3 skills/trade-hypothesis-ideator/scripts/run_hypothesis_ideator.py \
  --input skills/trade-hypothesis-ideator/examples/example_input.json \
  --hypotheses reports/raw_hypotheses.json \
  --output-dir reports/ \
  --export-strategies

Output

  • hypothesis_cards_<date>.json — Ranked hypothesis cards with verdicts (pursue, revise, discard)
  • hypothesis_cards_<date>.md — Human-readable summary with experiment designs and kill criteria
  • strategy_<hypothesis_id>.yaml — (Optional) Edge-finder-compatible strategy export for pursue cards
  • metadata_<hypothesis_id>.json — (Optional) Provenance metadata for exported strategies

Resources

  • references/hypothesis_types.md — Taxonomy of hypothesis patterns (mean-reversion, momentum, event-driven, etc.)
  • references/evidence_quality_guide.md — Criteria for rating evidence strength and sample size requirements

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