'contrarian' 검색 결과

Detect crowded speculative positioning in CFTC futures markets (COT report analysis) to find contrarian setups using Jason Shapiro's methodology. Screens large-speculator ("non-commercial") net positioning across 65 futures markets (indices, rates, FX, metals, energy, crypto) via the FMP Commitment of Traders API, computes a 3-year and 26-week COT Index per market, and classifies extremes as CROWDED_LONG / CROWDED_SHORT. Use when the user asks about COT report analysis, crowded positioning, "who is trapped", speculative positioning extremes, contrarian futures setups, or wants to run Jason Shapiro-style analysis. This skill automates crowding DETECTION only (step 1 of 5) — it does not generate trade signals by itself.

한국어 요약은 준비 중입니다. 원문 설명을 표시하고 있습니다.

Work through repeated failed fixes or difficult technical choices using five perspectives: practical action, missing information, simplification, architecture, and challenged assumptions. Compare alternatives and disagreements, then receive a recommendation while keeping the final decision with the user.

한국어 요약은 준비 중입니다. 영어 요약을 표시하고 있습니다.

• Reconsider a fix that has failed repeatedly
• Compare difficult database or architecture choices
• Reduce scope when complexity blocks progress

Judge whether a market FAILED to react to news favorable to a crowded speculative position — step 2 of Jason Shapiro's COT contrarian process. Consumes a cot-contrarian-detector report (or an explicit direction) plus a Claude-curated events JSON, fetches the underlying price series with a documented fallback chain, and produces a fail-closed CONFIRMED / NOT_CONFIRMED / INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE verdict using a statistically validated drift-significance test (not a naive failure-ratio, which false-confirms on pure noise). Generic beyond COT — reusable for PEAD and macro-crowding news-failure checks. Use when the user asks to check news-failure confirmation, whether a crowded market "shrugged off" good/bad news, or wants to run Shapiro step 2 on a CROWDED_LONG/CROWDED_SHORT market.

한국어 요약은 준비 중입니다. 원문 설명을 표시하고 있습니다.

Synthesize the three Jason Shapiro contrarian-pipeline verdicts (COT crowding, news-reaction failure, weekly price-action confirmation) into one actionable setup_status via a fail-closed precedence state machine. Pure, offline synthesis -- no network, no API keys, no computation beyond validation and precedence.

한국어 요약은 준비 중입니다. 원문 설명을 표시하고 있습니다.

Use when evaluating Michael Burry-style contrarian, asymmetric, unpopular trades: deep mispricing, short theses, complex assets, forced consensus errors, and catalyst-driven downside/upside.

한국어 요약은 준비 중입니다. 원문 설명을 표시하고 있습니다.

Use when evaluating startups through a Founders Fund-style lens: contrarian conviction, hard tech, bold product ambition, non-consensus markets, and high-upside company building.

한국어 요약은 준비 중입니다. 원문 설명을 표시하고 있습니다.

Use when stress-testing a proposal, plan, architecture or decision before committing to it, such as pre-mortems, assumption audits, "should we even do this?" questions, or when everyone agrees too easily. Not for code review; it challenges strategy, approach and hidden risks.

한국어 요약은 준비 중입니다. 원문 설명을 표시하고 있습니다.

当用户在面临投资/创业/职业选择，群体都在做一个方向但自己有疑虑、或在问"什么时候应该反着来""如何做出不同于大多数人的正确决策""共识什么时候是错的""怎么承受被误解的压力"时激活。 核心信号：用户在做一个与群体共识相反的决策，或者在考虑这样做。 不适用于：技术性问题、纯情感问题、不需要逆群体方向的常规决策。

한국어 요약은 준비 중입니다. 원문 설명을 표시하고 있습니다.

Stress-test research plans by comparing possible scenarios, such as sample losses, unavailable materials, or methods failing to transfer. Record assumptions and evidence, compare response options, and define contingency plans and observable triggers for changing course.

한국어 요약은 준비 중입니다. 영어 요약을 표시하고 있습니다.

• Plan responses to higher-than-expected sample losses
• Prepare backups for unavailable reagents or datasets
• Compare research options under resource constraints

Apply 12 structured investing frameworks to evidence already collected. Each framework orders the questions to ask, defines reasons to reject a case, and identifies its limitations, helping explain why different approaches reach different conclusions.

한국어 요약은 준비 중입니다. 영어 요약을 표시하고 있습니다.

• Assess the same company through two or three frameworks
• Check the evidence behind an appealing growth story
• Identify conditions that rule out an investment case

Extract useful ideas from videos, podcasts, interviews, and articles, organized into sections tailored to the content. Choose from five depth levels, preserving surprising claims and, at fuller levels, getting essential takeaways and references to explore.

한국어 요약은 준비 중입니다. 영어 요약을 표시하고 있습니다.

• Extract key insights from a YouTube interview
• Review a podcast at a chosen level of detail
• Organize useful ideas from an article

Structure and revise investment research into readable Markdown reports for Codex. Explain business economics, competitive advantages, opposing arguments, and valuation, then connect the evidence to price bands and actions for prospective investors and existing holders.

한국어 요약은 준비 중입니다. 영어 요약을 표시하고 있습니다.

• Restructure a lengthy investment research report
• Explain how a company earns money and sustains its advantages
• Strengthen a report's bear case and observable risk indicators

Draft a LinkedIn post from a topic and audience, choosing among 20 opening and structure formulas by the response you want. Includes founder-focused angles, wording cleanup, optional visuals, and scheduling through Publora after approval.

한국어 요약은 준비 중입니다. 영어 요약을 표시하고 있습니다.

• Draft a new LinkedIn post from a topic
• Choose a structure for comments or saves
• Find an angle for a founder's post

Analyze a LinkedIn post to identify its opening formula, body structure, and closing pattern. Get an explanation of its persuasive devices, confidence scores, cautions, and a blank template adapted to your topic.

한국어 요약은 준비 중입니다. 영어 요약을 표시하고 있습니다.

• Study the structure of a popular post
• Analyze a competitor's opening
• Extract a template for your own topic

Calculate contract-based futures position sizes from a direction, entry, and stop-loss, using verified per-symbol contract specs (multiplier, tick size, tick value). Use when the user asks how many futures contracts to trade, wants to size a futures position (ES, NQ, ZB, GC, CL, 6E/E6, VX, BT, ...), or is handing off a contrarian-setup-gate READY_FOR_PLAN direction/invalidation_level for sizing. Pure, offline calculation -- no API keys, no network.

한국어 요약은 준비 중입니다. 원문 설명을 표시하고 있습니다.

Use when evaluating Prem Watsa / Fairfax-style value investing: insurance float, contrarian allocation, special situations, and conservative downside-focused capital allocation.

한국어 요약은 준비 중입니다. 원문 설명을 표시하고 있습니다.

Use when evaluating John Templeton-style global contrarian value: buy at points of maximum pessimism, search worldwide, and demand a large discount to long-term value.

한국어 요약은 준비 중입니다. 원문 설명을 표시하고 있습니다.

Use when evaluating markets through Li Bei's macro hedge lens: regime identification, trend + contrarian timing, position management by conviction, and risk control for drawdown.

한국어 요약은 준비 중입니다. 원문 설명을 표시하고 있습니다.

Turn a company update into 3-7 structurally distinct, journalist-shaped story angles. Runs the fact through proven newsroom lenses (perspective, abstraction, news values, data, contrarian, news peg) and refuses rephrasings, invented facts, named-journalist guesses, and AI-marketing slop.

한국어 요약은 준비 중입니다. 원문 설명을 표시하고 있습니다.

Turn any skill in this instance into a publish-ready launch article - proof-stat headline, one contrarian thesis, mechanics, war stories from real run history, a mental-model reframe, and the full SKILL.md embedded verbatim so readers can steal it. Optional Higgsfield title banner with --banner.

한국어 요약은 준비 중입니다. 원문 설명을 표시하고 있습니다.

Write viral Twitter/X threads and Reddit posts with proven structures, hooks, and engagement tactics. Includes templates for story threads, listicle threads, contrarian takes, tutorials, and case studies. Can post directly to Reddit. Trigger phrases: "write a thread", "Twitter thread", "X thread", "viral thread", "thread writer", "tweetstorm", "thread template", "thread about", "turn this into a thread", "reddit post", "write a reddit post".

한국어 요약은 준비 중입니다. 원문 설명을 표시하고 있습니다.

Reverse-engineer the hook from a viral Instagram Reel or carousel, given a URL or a pasted caption. Identifies which of the 10 canonical 2026 formulas it uses (number-first, contrarian, relatable, confession, listicle, before/after, myth-buster, framework, pattern-interrupt Reel, how-I Reel), explains why it worked, names the primary goal, and returns a blank template mapped to your topic. Use to learn from a post you admire. Not for writing your own (use ig-caption-writer or ig-carousel-planner).

한국어 요약은 준비 중입니다. 원문 설명을 표시하고 있습니다.

Use with every WinDbg plugin investigation to apply evidence-first reasoning, confidence calibration, contrarian review, structured reporting, and deterministic validation. Not a bug-family-specific triage skill.

한국어 요약은 준비 중입니다. 원문 설명을 표시하고 있습니다.

Deliberate-choice procedure for a medium-to-high-stakes engineering fork — when the first plausible solution (the instinct, the default next-token pull) would be costly to get wrong. Fires AUTONOMOUSLY: invoke proactively whenever a fork fits, never wait to be asked — mechanical triggers include a fix failing for the 2nd-3rd time, adding a dependency, schema/migration design, deleting or deprecating things others depend on, changing a public API, choosing an architecture or stack. Refuse the premature collapse: hold real options open (urge · contrarian · synthesis · out-of-box · intuitive dots · precedent · first-principles), ground each branch in at least one fact from outside the model (codebase, docs, benchmark, spike), future-model consequences (blast radius, reversibility, maintenance, pre-mortem), collapse by deliberate choice, then try to refute the winner before acting. Log the decision and rejected branches in docs/decision_logs/. Not for routine calls — a decision worth more than one forward pass.

한국어 요약은 준비 중입니다. 원문 설명을 표시하고 있습니다.