「uncertainty」の検索結果

Systematic departures from rational choice theory and their implications for economic analysis and policy. Covers cognitive heuristics (anchoring, availability, representativeness), biases (loss aversion, status quo, overconfidence), prospect theory (reference dependence, probability weighting, diminishing sensitivity), nudge theory and choice architecture, and the integration of psychological findings into economic models. Use when analyzing decision-making under uncertainty, evaluating policy interventions that exploit behavioral patterns, or assessing where standard rational-agent models break down.

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Structured approaches to decisions under uncertainty and complexity. Covers expected value, decision trees, multi-criteria decision analysis, System 1 vs System 2 allocation, pre-mortems, reversible vs irreversible decisions, and the distinction between good decisions and good outcomes. Use when choosing among alternatives with uncertain or multi-dimensional consequences, especially when the stakes justify a deliberate rather than intuitive process.

日本語の概要は準備中です。原文の説明を表示しています。

Generate intelligence briefings for the planning dashboard. Use this skill whenever a request file appears in `.planning/console/inbox/pending/` whose `type` field starts with `intelligence.` (refresh_briefing, triage_finding, snapshot_diff, investigate_section, dismiss_finding). The skill reads the per-project KB at `.gsd/intelligence/intelligence.db`, synthesizes a briefing with a causal hypothesis + acknowledged uncertainty + confidence label and ranked moves, then writes the result back to the KB. Always trigger this skill for these request types — do not generate briefings manually.

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Use when parallel agents in a convoy or across git worktrees hit a write conflict on shared state — a git tree, a config, or a shared document — and you must decide whether the conflict is semantically real. Classifies each conflicting hunk as independent (keep both), redundant (pick one), or a genuine clash (escalate), instead of blind locks, abort-and-retry, or escalate-everything. Sits ABOVE refinery-merge and NEVER blind auto-merges: it wraps an LLM judgment, defaults to escalate on any uncertainty, and unconditionally escalates any hunk touching .planning/, config, credentials, or safety-critical paths. Backed by CoAgent (arxiv 2606.15376v1). Triggers on write conflicts between parallel agents on shared repo state.

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Integrate multiple source findings into an attributed synthesis or comparison. Use for combine these summaries, synthesize results, merge findings or multi-source analysis. Preserve claim-level provenance, coverage, qualifiers, conflicts and uncertainty rather than repeatedly compressing narrative summaries.

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Use when the user asks what to do next, asks for a plan under uncertainty, challenges stalled or low-trust work, requests multiple possible approaches before action, or needs an evidence-first loop that uses RT-ICA-style prerequisite checks, adversarial review, subagent coordination, real validation, and durable concern tracking.

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Summarize a supplied URL from fetched content with source locations, acquisition coverage and explicit access failures. Use for articles, documentation, API references and web pages; preserve version, author attribution and uncertainty in the requested output format.

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Route requests to summarize files, URLs, images, inline text, or multiple sources. Select the requested format and preserve evidence, exact counts, uncertainty and source coverage through summarization, synthesis and agent-result relay.

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Describe images, screenshots, diagrams and charts from visual inspection. Preserve visible text, counts, labels, directions and uncertainty; distinguish observation from interpretation. Use for image summaries, screenshot explanations and diagram descriptions.

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Use when facing unknowns, debugging without a clear cause, or making architecture decisions — enforces hypothesis-driven scientific reasoning through observation, hypothesis formulation, prediction, experiment design, and evidence-based conclusion. Use when previous attempts have failed or the problem space involves uncertainty.

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Same reverse-thinking method as dh:rt-ica (see dh:rt-ica or dh-glossary for the definition), but localizes any MISSING input to the affected task only, as a non-blocking information-completeness pre-pass before task decomposition and plan generation. Use when grooming backlog items, generating plans, decomposing tasks under uncertainty, or working in brownfield and refactor scenarios. Produces completeness summary (APPROVED-FOR-PLANNING, APPROVED-WITH-GAPS, or BLOCKED-FOR-PLANNING), missing input report with dependency mapping, required unblock actions, and planning annotations for downstream tasks. Use dh:rt-ica instead at the S2 implementation gate where missing inputs must halt execution.

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Apply systematic problem-solving techniques for marketing challenges including campaign complexity (simplification cascades), creative blocks (collision-zone thinking), recurring campaign patterns (meta-pattern recognition), assumption constraints (inversion exercise), audience scale uncertainty (scale game), and dispatch when stuck. Techniques derived from proven problem-solving frameworks adapted for marketing execution.

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Reads model uncertainty from token log-probabilities. Covers collecting logprobs and aggregating multi-token labels, confidence tiers and margins for triage, calibration assessment with ECE, Brier scores, and reliability diagrams against human labels, responsible downstream use of confidence, and reproducibility archives. Use when the user asks about classifier confidence by item, logprobs, top-k tokens, calibration, ECE, Brier, reliability diagrams, or routing low-confidence cases to human review. Codebook and validation design go to text-classification.

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Reads a model's own uncertainty from token log-probabilities: collecting and aggregating label logprobs, confidence tiers and margins for triage, calibration against human labels (ECE, Brier, reliability diagrams), downstream use, and reproducibility. Use for per-item classifier confidence or routing low-confidence cases to human review; codebook and validation design go to text-classification.

日本語の概要は準備中です。原文の説明を表示しています。

North star guidance for the agent-resources project. Use this skill to understand project context, get inspiration for development decisions, and resolve uncertainty about feature priorities or design choices. Reference when asking 'why does this project exist?' or 'what should we optimize for?'

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Use this skill for ANY financial market, investment, or macro-economic analysis. ALWAYS trigger this skill — do not skip it — when the user asks about: BTC, bitcoin, crypto, gold, silver, oil, stocks, forex, bonds, interest rates, Fed policy, inflation, deflation, stagflation, market structure, trading setups, portfolio allocation, asset allocation, investment strategy, price analysis, market outlook, geopolitics affecting markets, or any question involving "should I buy/sell/hold [any asset]", "what will [asset] do", or "analyze [market/asset]". Apply Genesis Protocol (First Principle + System Thinking) combined with SMC Layer analysis to produce structured insights with explicit scenarios, entry/exit zones, and uncertainty. For non-market strategic thinking, use genesis-mind-strategic-intelligence instead.

日本語の概要は準備中です。原文の説明を表示しています。

Use this skill for ANY financial market, investment, or macro-economic analysis. ALWAYS trigger this skill — do not skip it — when the user asks about: BTC, bitcoin, crypto, gold, silver, oil, stocks, forex, bonds, interest rates, Fed policy, inflation, deflation, stagflation, market structure, trading setups, portfolio allocation, asset allocation, investment strategy, price analysis, market outlook, geopolitics affecting markets, or any question involving "should I buy/sell/hold [any asset]", "what will [asset] do", or "analyze [market/asset]". Apply Genesis Protocol (First Principle + System Thinking) combined with SMC Layer analysis to produce structured insights with explicit scenarios, entry/exit zones, and uncertainty. For non-market strategic thinking, use genesis-mind-strategic-intelligence instead.

日本語の概要は準備中です。原文の説明を表示しています。

Nature-style climate and ecology manuscript reviewer skill for testing biodiversity, ecosystem-function, carbon-cycle, conservation, global-change and ecological-inference claims against sampling, causal design, model structure, uncertainty and management scope.

日本語の概要は準備中です。原文の説明を表示しています。

Nature-style remote-sensing manuscript reviewer skill for evaluating Earth-observation products, retrievals, machine-learning maps, validation design, uncertainty propagation, spatial transferability and claim-scope calibration.

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Nature-style engineering manuscript reviewer skill for testing devices, robots, platforms, systems, algorithms embodied in physical systems and engineering methods against requirements, validation, benchmarking, uncertainty, robustness and failure modes.

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Use when Codex must make a high-quality judgment on any complex problem, not only technical problems. Trigger when a question has high complexity, uncertainty, cost of being wrong, long-term impact, value tradeoffs, possible structural causes, or when the user asks for 全面思考, 深度理解, 系统性分析, 帮我想清楚, 从根上看, 这件事到底怎么看, 方法论, 复杂问题拆解, 系统方案, 架构判断, 策略判断, or 根因分析. Also trigger for project and engineering high-risk scenarios such as multi-module, multi-environment, multi-data-source, multi-state, financial truth, live trading, ledger, revenue, customer assets, order governance, broker interfaces, online availability, major solution selection, and system closure.

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Builds renewable energy yield models with resource assessment, capacity factor analysis, and P50/P90 production estimates. Use when modeling wind/solar yields, analyzing resource data, or evaluating production uncertainty.

日本語の概要は準備中です。原文の説明を表示しています。

Use when uncertainty remains and the minimum useful sequence of questions should be asked.

日本語の概要は準備中です。原文の説明を表示しています。

Epistemic transparency — acknowledging uncertainty, flagging limitations, avoiding overconfidence, and communicating what is known, unknown, and uncertain with proportional confidence. Maps the HEXACO personality dimension to AI reasoning: truthful calibration of confidence, proactive disclosure of gaps, and resistance to the temptation to appear more certain than warranted. Use before presenting a conclusion, when answering questions where knowledge is partial or inferred, after noticing a temptation to state uncertain information as certain, or when a user is making decisions based on provided information.

日本語の概要は準備中です。原文の説明を表示しています。