「monte carlo」の検索結果

Reinforces an AI agent by turning Monte Carlo's reinforcement loop diagnosis into code fixes. Reads the daily reinforcement loop report for an agent's workflows, ranks the diagnosed issues, proposes what to fix, and — with the user's approval at each step — opens a pull request. Activates on "fix my agent", "improve my agent's health", "reinforce my agent", "what should I fix in my agent". Not for investigating a specific agent alert or trace (monte-carlo-troubleshoot-agent-traces), creating agent monitors (monte-carlo-monitoring-advisor), or instrumenting a new agent (monte-carlo-instrument-agent).

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Expert guide for Monte Carlo's push ingestion model. Use this skill whenever a customer or engineer mentions: pushing data to Monte Carlo, the IngestionService, pycarlo push APIs, build me a collection script, push metadata/lineage/query logs, invocation_id tracing, custom lineage nodes or edges, deleting push tables, or any question about why pushed data is not showing up. Also trigger when they ask to generate code that collects metadata, table schema, row counts, freshness, lineage, or query history from any data warehouse or data source and sends it to Monte Carlo. If the user mentions any warehouse, database, or data platform alongside any Monte Carlo topic, this skill is almost certainly relevant.

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Troubleshoots Monte Carlo AI agent alerts and traces — eval score drops, latency/token spikes, trajectory and validation breaches. Not for data incidents (monte-carlo-analyze-root-cause) or monitor creation (monte-carlo-monitoring-advisor).

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Scaffold and run a reproducible Monte Carlo simulation study in R — a declared assumption regime, a parameterized DGP, an estimator grid, a seeded replication loop, and a summary of bias, RMSE, empirical SE, coverage, size/power with Monte Carlo standard errors. Use when the user says "run a Monte Carlo simulation", "simulation study", "check the bias/coverage of an estimator", "compare estimators in simulation", "size and power simulation", "Monte Carlo experiment", or wants to demonstrate an estimator's finite-sample properties. Produces a numbered R script in `scripts/R/` and saves per-replication raw results + a summary table to `output/`.

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Price financial instruments in MATLAB using the Financial Instruments Toolbox. Route to the appropriate numerical method reference based on the user's request: Monte Carlo simulation (AssetMonteCarlo, IRMonteCarlo, RoughVolMonteCarlo), FFT / Numerical Integration (Vanilla European options), or Interest-Rate Trees (option-embedded bonds with IRTree). Use when the user asks to price financial instruments or compute Greeks using any of these methods. Use one of the following models depending on the pricing method and instrument: Black-Scholes, Bachelier, Heston, Bates, Merton, Hull-White, Black-Karasinski, Black-Derman-Toy, Cox-Ingersoll-Ross, Linear Gaussian 2 Factor (G2PP), Brace-Gatarek-Musiela (BGM), SABR-BGM, RoughBergomi, RoughHeston.

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Instrument a new AI agent in a Python codebase for Monte Carlo Agent Observability. Detects AI libraries, installs the Monte Carlo OpenTelemetry SDK, and proposes tracing setup and decorator placements as diffs. Asks before editing any file.

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Use when auditing or recalibrating game balance: build a source-driven Monte Carlo balance lab (Rust + rayon) that extracts live game data, simulates human playstyles (AFK→pro), emits win-rate/economy verdicts with confidence intervals, and bruteforce-tunes parameters. Trigger on unfair levels, unreachable shops, farm exploits, interest-curve cliffs, post-content recalibration, or CI balance JSON diffs. Keywords: balance lab, Monte Carlo, win rate, difficulty curve, economy career, playstyle simulation, Resource extraction, GDScript parser, bruteforce tuning.

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Design and implement Monte Carlo methods for uncertainty quantification, risk analysis, and probabilistic simulations across scientific and financial domains. Use when "monte carlo, random sampling, uncertainty quantification, risk analysis, stochastic simulation, MCMC, variance reduction, probabilistic, " mentioned.

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Investigate data incidents and find root causes using Monte Carlo's observability data. Guides the agent through systematic investigation: alert lookup, lineage tracing, ETL checks, query analysis, and data profiling. Activates when a user asks about data issues, incidents, alerts, or why data looks wrong.

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Connect warehouses and BI tools (Tableau, Looker, Power BI) to Monte Carlo with API v2 tools: show what exists, reference credentials, create, validate and fix connections. Use to connect or onboard platforms, or to generate Terraform or a script.

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Route data-related requests to the right Monte Carlo skill or workflow. USE WHEN alerts, incidents, data broken, stale, coverage gaps, data quality, or any ambiguous data observability request.

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Check the health of a data table/asset using Monte Carlo. Activates on "how is table X", "check health of X", "is X healthy", "status of X", "check on X table", or any health/status question about a data asset.

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Investigate and remediate data quality alerts using Monte Carlo MCP tools. Runs root cause analysis, assesses blast radius, discovers available tools (MCP/CLI/API), proposes and executes fixes, or escalates with full context when uncertain.

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Diagnoses pipeline performance issues -- slow jobs, expensive queries, latency trends -- using Monte Carlo's cross-platform observability. Uses a tiered investigation approach: discover problems, bridge to affected tables, then drill into root causes. Activates when a user asks about slow pipelines, expensive queries, or performance regressions.

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This skill covers Bayesian estimation and inference in quantitative social science. Use when the user is specifying priors, running MCMC, diagnosing chain convergence, or reporting posterior summaries — including hierarchical models, Bayesian structural models, and small-sample settings where priors regularize. Triggers on "Bayesian estimation", "Bayesian inference", "MCMC", "Markov chain Monte Carlo", "Stan", "PyMC", "NumPyro", "prior", "posterior", "credible interval", "Bayesian structural", "Bayesian BLP", "Bayesian DSGE", "hierarchical model", "random effects Bayesian", "posterior predictive check", "Bayes factor", "prior predictive check", "NUTS", "HMC", "Hamiltonian Monte Carlo", "R-hat", "rhat", "effective sample size", "ESS", "Bayesian calibration", "posterior distribution", "prior elicitation", "weakly informative prior", "brms", "rstanarm", "cmdstanpy", "pymc", "arviz".

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Fix Monte Carlo project completion simulations that give identical dates for all sub-groups (milestones, priorities, epics). Use when: (1) All sub-group predictions converge to the same date despite different remaining counts, (2) Proportional throughput scaling produces flat/identical results, (3) Applying overall scope rate to individual sub-groups causes simulations to hit max_weeks cap and never converge, (4) Building project forecasting tools that predict completion for sub-groups of a larger backlog. Covers hypergeometric draw model for milestones and cumulative priority model for sequential priorities.

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数据工程 — 数据平台从业者的认知操作系统, 覆盖把数据从源系统搬运成可靠 / 可查询 / 可信赖形态供分析 / ML / 数据产品消费的全生命周期 (生成 → 摄取 → 存储 → 转换 → 服务 + 安全/数据管理/DataOps/数据架构/编排/软件工程 六条暗流, Reis & Housley 框架): 摄取与集成 (批 + CDC 变更数据捕获 Debezium + EL 工具 Fivetran/Airbyte/Meltano/dlt + Kafka Connect + schema drift) / 存储与文件表格式 (对象存储数据湖 + 列存 Parquet/ORC/Arrow/Avro + 开放表格式 Apache Iceberg/Delta Lake/Apache Hudi + lakehouse + 分区/compaction) / 转换与建模 (ELT dbt/SQLMesh + Spark + 维度建模 Kimball + Inmon + Data Vault + 大宽表 OBT + 渐变维 SCD + 增量模型 + 语义/指标层) / 编排与工作流 (Apache Airflow/Dagster/Prefect/Mage/Kestra/Apache DolphinScheduler + DAG + 幂等 + 回填 backfill + 数据资产调度) / 批流与实时 (Apache Kafka/Apache Flink/Spark Structured Streaming/Kinesis/Pulsar/Redpanda + Lambda vs Kappa + watermark/窗口/exactly-once + 流式 SQL Materialize/RisingWave + 实时 OLAP ClickHouse/Apache Druid/Apache Pinot/StarRocks/Apache Doris) / 数仓与查询引擎 (Snowflake/BigQuery/Redshift/Databricks SQL/Trino/Presto/DuckDB/Polars + 存算分离 + MPP) / 数据质量测试与可观测性 (dbt tests/Great Expectations/Soda + 数据契约 + Monte Carlo data downtime + 新鲜度/量/schema 异常检测) / 数据治理编目与血缘 (DataHub/Amundsen/OpenMetadata/Unity Catalog + 列级血缘 + PII 分类 + 访问控制 + GDPR) / DataOps 与可靠性 (数据 CI/CD + 转换版本控制 + 环境隔离 + 幂等重处理 + 数据 SLA/SLO + 计算存储 FinOps) / 数据架构范式 (现代数据栈 + lakehouse + data mesh + data fabric + 去中心化 vs 中心化所有权) / 分析工程角色 (dbt 时代连接数据工程与分析的桥) — 不含 数据科学/ML 建模本身 (是下游消费者) / BI 仪表盘制作 (serving 下游) / 数据分析报表为终点 / 'data engineer = 跑 Hadoop 的' 过时窄化 / 通用后端应用开发 (平行学科) (Data Engineering — the cognitive operating system of practitioners who design, build, and operate the data platform: moving data from source systems into reliable, queryable, trustworthy form for analytics / ML / products, covering (a) the data engineering lifecycle (generation → ingestion → storage → transformation → serving, with the undercurrents security / data management / DataOps / data architecture / orchestration / software engineering — Reis & Housley framing), (b) ingestion & integration (batch + CDC change-data-capture with Debezium, EL tools Fivetran / Airbyte / Meltano / dlt, Kafka Connect, API + file + database sources, schema drift handling), (c) storage & file/table formats (object storage data lakes, columnar formats Parquet / ORC / Arrow / Avro, open table formats Apache Iceberg / Delta Lake / Apache Hudi, lakehouse architecture, partitioning / compaction / Z-ordering), (d) transformation & modeling (ELT with dbt / SQLMesh, Spark, dimensional modeling Kimball, Inmon CIF, Data Vault, One Big Table / wide tables, normalization vs denormalization, slowly changing dimensions, incremental models, the semantic / metrics layer), (e) orchestration & workflow (Apache Airflow, Dagster, Prefect, Mage, Kestra, Apache DolphinScheduler, DAGs, idempotency, backfills, data-aware / asset-based scheduling), (f) batch vs streaming & real-time (Apache Kafka, Apache Flink, Spark Structured Streaming, Kinesis / Pulsar / Redpanda, the Lambda vs Kappa debate, watermarks / windowing / exactly-once, streaming SQL Materialize / RisingWave, real-time OLAP ClickHouse / Apache Druid / Apache Pinot / StarRocks / Apache Doris), (g) warehouses & query engines (Snowflake, BigQuery, Redshift, Databricks SQL, Trino / Presto, DuckDB, Polars, decoupled storage & compute, MPP), (h) data quality, testing & observability (dbt tests, Great Expectations, Soda, data contracts, Monte Carlo / data downtime, freshness / volume / schema anomaly detection, unit / integration testing of pipelines), (i) data governance, catalog & lineage (DataHub, Amundsen, OpenMetadata, Unity Catalog, column-level lineage, PII / data classification, access control, GDPR / data privacy), (j) DataOps & reliability (CI/CD for data, version control of transformations, environments, idempotent reprocessing, SLAs / SLOs for data, cost / FinOps for compute & storage), (k) data architecture paradigms (modern data stack, data lakehouse, data mesh, data fabric, decentralized vs centralized ownership), (l) the analytics engineering role (the dbt-era bridge between data engineering and analysis); N

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Shift-left safety net for dbt/SQL model edits. Runs change impact assessment before edits, generates SQL validation queries after, and executes them via `/mc-validate run`. Delegates health and monitor creation to peer skills.

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Triage Monte Carlo alerts interactively or build an automated workflow. Fetch, score, and troubleshoot alerts using MCP tools now, or design a reusable workflow that runs on a schedule.

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Analyze a warehouse for stale, unused, or redundant tables via the analyze_storage_costs MCP tool. Classifies waste patterns and table categories, computes safety tiers, and handles category drill-downs and lineage follow-ups.

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Orchestrate incident response — triage, root cause, remediate, prevent recurrence. USE WHEN active alerts, data broken, stale, pipeline failure, or investigate and fix a data incident.

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Analyze a Monte Carlo monitor and recommend config changes to reduce alert noise. Supports metric, custom SQL, validation, table, and agent (metric, evaluation, trajectory, validation) monitors. Fetches the report, identifies patterns, and suggests tuning.

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Guide users from coverage analysis to monitor creation. USE WHEN user asks what should I monitor, where are my gaps, improve coverage, or wants a systematic approach to monitoring across their data estate.

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Build a Connection Auth Rules for a Monte Carlo connection type. Fetches live connector schemas and transform steps from the apollo-agent repo.

日本語の概要は準備中です。原文の説明を表示しています。