tjboudreaux

Before committing to a plan or launch, assume it already failed and reason backward through concrete causes — convert failure paths into mitigations, gates, and stop checks.

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For authorized security review of code, auth, or APIs you control, model the attacker, map the attack surface, and report only findings with a reproducible exploit path and verified mitigation.

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When a fault is localized and the proximate cause is known but the systemic root is not, chain evidence-linked whys with a counterfactual stop and a countermeasure.

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Deciding what to build or why adoption fails. Recover the progress users hire a solution for under a circumstance, then rank by outcome and competing workarounds.

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Use when a selective defect needs IS/IS-NOT difference analysis or a consequential option choice needs must/want weighting and adverse-consequence comparison.

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When unsure which thinking skill fits, map domain and problem type, then return NONE or one primary skill by default (at most three complementary).

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When behavior is emergent across components—fixes elsewhere break, loops/delays dominate—map boundary, stocks/flows, feedback, archetypes, then rank leverage.

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Use when the reflex is to add a feature, layer, or process. Prefer removing harmful or nonessential elements first, with an irreversibility guard before deletion.

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Use when search or investigation could run forever. Set an explicit good-enough threshold first, then stop at the first option that clears it.

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When a request is vague, assumption-laden, or "obvious," ask the few load-bearing questions that expose hidden requirements before building or committing.

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When two design requirements seem mutually exclusive, name the contradiction, separate conflicting states, then invent a concrete no-compromise resolution.

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When a real test is too rare, large, or irreversible, run a controlled counterfactual: isolate one variable, fix conditions, trace the mechanistic chain, and bound what the result implies.

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Under genuine uncertainty with no reliable forecast, inventory means, cap downside at affordable loss, act for commitments, and let goals emerge from controllable moves.

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When one mental model leaves a material blind spot on a multi-domain or high-stakes problem, sequence complementary models with named roles and a conflict rule.

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When provisioning, setting a limit, or committing an estimate under uncertainty, size a buffer to residual error and the cost of breach—not to the optimistic edge.

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When throughput or latency is pipeline-limited, identify the single binding constraint and exploit, subordinate, elevate, then recheck—ignore non-constraints.

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Use when forecasting, estimating, or sizing risk — anchor on base rates, give ranges, update prior→likelihood→posterior on evidence, and factor unmeasured quantities into order-of-magnitude bounds.

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Use when a specific claim may lack grounding. Check evidence boundary, size wrongness cost, then answer, fetch, or abstain — never confabulate.

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When the right response mode is unclear, classify the cause-effect domain first; decompose disorder.

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When a claim, doc, test, metric, or assumption conflicts with observed behavior, stop theorizing from the map and verify the live code or data; let territory overrule.

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Use when longevity of a non-perishable option matters. Treat survival duration as a remaining-life prior, then check domain drift before favoring the proven.

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Before committing scarce time, people, or money, name the best forgone use of those resources and the value delta of the chosen path versus that alternative.

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When a symptom has several plausible causes, rank falsifiable hypotheses and run the cheapest discriminating observation first; prefer least-assumptive survivors only after evidence fit.

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When a change has effects past the immediate fix—incentives, scale, feedback—trace consequence chains with timing and probability before committing.

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