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macro-regime

Macro regime analysis, bull bear market detection, business cycle analysis, macro environment assessment, interest rate cycle, yield curve analysis, monetary policy, fiscal policy, global macro, central bank posture, credit cycle, recession probability, expansion regime, macro regime shift, stagflation detection

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查看安装方法

包含的文件(3)

  • SKILL.md3.6 KB
  • references/knowledge-frameworks.md814 B
  • references/modes.md742 B

SKILL.md(原文)

安装前可以查看交给 AI 代理的指令内容。

Defaults

ParameterDefault ValueRationale
lookback_quarters82yr captures cycle inflection while remaining responsive
regime_indicatorsyield_curve, credit_spreads, PMI, VIX, fed_postureStandard macro regime detection set
probability_weightingbear/base/bullThree-scenario framework per institutional standard

Preflight

Run canonical pre-flight per contracts/preflight.md. Include the X-Agentii-Trace header on every tool call per contracts/x-agentii-trace-header.md — carry the _run_id from your first tool result and name yourself (and your parent, if you were spawned).

Data Source Priority (mandatory order)

  1. Knowledge entries FIRST — query gold.knowledge_entries for L1 regime frameworks
  2. Historical analogues SECOND — query search_by_analogue(market_regime) for matching cases
  3. Real-time data LAST — supplemental only

Methodology

Retrieval Scope

structured_only

Retrieval Strategy

  1. Query knowledge entries for L1 frameworks via search_knowledge_entries
  2. Query search_by_analogue for historical regime precedents
  3. Supplement with real-time data

Temporal Scope

See frontmatter temporal_scope block.

Tool Allowlist

See frontmatter allowed_tools.

Protocol

  1. Regime Detection — classify current macro environment using yield curve, credit spreads, PMI, VIX, Fed posture
  2. Framework Application — apply relevant L1 framework from references/knowledge-frameworks.md
  3. Analogue Retrieval — query search_by_analogue(market_regime) for historical precedents
  4. Probability Weighting — Bear/Base/Bull scenarios with transition catalysts

Output File

{ticker}/{YYYY-MM-DD_HHMM}_macro-regime_{affix}.md

Output Structure

  1. Executive Summary — current regime with probability weights
  2. Regime Indicators — yield curve, credit spreads, PMI, VIX with readings
  3. Framework Analysis — applied L1 frameworks with evidence
  4. Historical Analogues — matched cases with /v/cases/ citations
  5. Scenario Matrix — Bear/Base/Bull with catalysts
  6. Risk Factors and Coverage Gaps

Error Handling

ErrorFallback
No L1 frameworksProceed with standard indicators; flag degraded
search_by_analogue emptyNote no analogue found; do not fabricate
Real-time quote unavailableUse last-known values with staleness flag

Memory Load

Load prior context before retrieval. See contracts/memory-load.md.

Snapshot

Post-session synthesis. See contracts/snapshot-synthesis.md.

Final Summary (TUI)

Include ### Key Citations block with 0-10 clickable /v/ URLs for cited frameworks and cases.

References

  • references/knowledge-frameworks.md
  • contracts/citation-and-memory.md
  • contracts/output-frontmatter-schema.md
  • contracts/memory-load.md
  • contracts/snapshot-synthesis.md
  • contracts/preflight.md

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