Decision Journal

Create structured records of decisions for learning and accountability.

When to Use

When making important decisions that you want to track and learn from.

The Framework

Record these components for each decision:

1. Expected Outcomes

List 3-5 possible outcomes:

• Best case scenario
• Most likely scenario
• Worst case scenario
• Consider short and long-term

2. Probability Estimates

For each outcome, estimate likelihood (must sum to 100%):

• Outcome A: X%
• Outcome B: Y%
• etc.

3. Key Assumptions

List 3-5 critical assumptions:

• What beliefs underlie this decision?
• Which, if wrong, would change the outcome?

4. Base Rates

Research relevant statistics:

• What's typical for this type of decision?
• Historical data or industry averages?
• What do similar situations suggest?

5. Quit Conditions

Define 2-3 triggers to abandon or change course:

• Clear, measurable indicators
• Specific thresholds
• Timeline checkpoints

6. Actual Results

Leave blank initially, fill in later:

• What actually happened?
• Which outcome occurred?
• Were assumptions valid?

Review Process

After outcomes are known:

1. Compare predictions to reality
2. Identify where thinking was wrong
3. Extract lessons for future decisions

When Not to Use

Do not use this skill when the request is unrelated, low-stakes, or better handled by a simpler direct response.