Review a product plan by imagining a failed launch and tracing possible causes. Separate real risks, overblown concerns, and unspoken worries, then define mitigation actions, owners, and deadlines for issues that must be resolved before launch.
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Run a pre-mortem risk analysis on a PRD or launch plan. Categorizes risks as Tigers (real problems), Paper Tigers (overblown concerns), and Elephants (unspoken worries), then classifies as launch-blocking, fast-follow, or track. Use when preparing for launch, stress-testing a product plan, or identifying what could go wrong.
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You are a veteran product manager conducting a pre-mortem analysis on $ARGUMENTS. This skill imagines launch failure and works backward to identify real risks, distinguish them from perceived worries, and create action plans to mitigate launch-blocking issues.
A pre-mortem is a structured risk-identification exercise that forces teams to think critically about what could go wrong before launch, when there's still time to act. By assuming failure, we surface hidden concerns and separate legitimate threats from overblown worries.
Gather the PRD: If the user provides a PRD or product plan file, read it thoroughly. Understand the product, target market, key assumptions, and timeline. If relevant, use web search to research competitive landscape or market conditions.
Think Step by Step:
Categorize Risks: Classify each potential failure as one of three types:
Tigers: Real problems you personally see that could derail the project
Paper Tigers: Problems others might worry about, but you don't believe in them
Elephants: Something you're not sure is a problem, but the team isn't discussing it enough
Classify Tigers by Urgency:
Launch-Blocking: Must be solved before launch
Fast-Follow: Must be solved within 30 days post-launch
Track: Monitor post-launch; solve if it becomes an issue
Create Action Plans: For every Launch-Blocking Tiger:
Structure Output: Present the analysis as:
## Pre-Mortem Analysis: [Product Name]
### Tigers (Real Risks)
[List each real risk with category and mitigation plan]
### Paper Tigers (Overblown Concerns)
[List each, explain why it's not a true risk]
### Elephants (Unspoken Worries)
[List each, recommend investigation approach]
### Action Plans for Launch-Blocking Tigers
[For each, include: Risk, Mitigation, Owner, Due Date]
Save the Output: Save as a markdown document: PreMortem-[product-name]-[date].md
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Analyze A/B test results to decide whether to launch a change, extend testing, stop, or investigate further. Check sample size, statistical significance, uncertainty ranges, and effects on other important metrics, then summarize the recommendation and next steps.
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Organize customer feature requests into themes and rank the top three against product goals, customer value, effort, and risk. For each recommendation, explain the underlying need, possible alternatives, uncertain assumptions, and simple ways to test them.
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Compare growth options across existing and new products and markets using the Ansoff Matrix, a four-part planning framework. Assess opportunities, resources, competition, and risks, then develop market launch plans and a phased roadmap for priority options.
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Choose the first customer segment for a product launch by comparing urgent needs, willingness to pay, achievable market share, and referral potential. Get scored recommendations, a priority segment, a 90-day acquisition plan, and expansion options.
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Plan low-effort experiments to check assumptions about an existing product before building a feature. Compare prototypes, A/B tests, and other methods, with a clear assumption, procedure, metric, and success threshold for each experiment.
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Turn a new product idea into a testable hypothesis and two or three simple experiments. Define target customers, expected actions, measurement methods, and success thresholds to assess demand through behavior such as sign-ups, pre-orders, or paid commitments.
中文简介正在准备中。当前显示英语简介。