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decision-heuristics

Work through major choices such as changing jobs, moving, or choosing a partner using simple decision rules. Examine whether to decline an uncertain opportunity, compare equally viable options, and reserve time for decisions with lasting consequences.

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当用户在重大选择上纠结(换工作/买房/搬城/合伙/结婚)、列了利弊表还是拿不定主意时调用。核心理念: 无法决定就答否; 三个重大决定(住哪/和谁/做什么)值得花一两年; 两个均等选择选短期更痛苦的路。不适用于: 日常琐碎选择(晚饭吃什么)、信息查询。

Triggers: 纠结/拿不定主意/要不要/该不该/利弊/decision/hesitate/should I

See how to install

Good for

  • Working through a major career or relocation decision
  • Reconsidering a choice after a pros-and-cons list fails
  • Comparing two equally viable options
  • Making time to investigate long-term life choices

Files included (3)

  • SKILL.md5.5 KB
  • test-prompts.json2.3 KB
  • test-results.md1.1 KB

SKILL.md (original)

Review the instructions the agent will receive before you install.

重大决策启发式

R — 原文 (Reading)

如果你无法下决定,就回答否。原因是,现代社会充满了选择。……当你选择某些事物时,你会被锁定一段很长的时间。……简单的启发式算法:如果你在一个困难的决定上有同等程度的分歧,那么就选择在短期内会更痛苦的那条路。

— 纳瓦尔·拉维坎特, 《纳瓦尔宝典》 第一章·财富

I — 方法论骨架 (Interpretation)

现代社会的选择无穷多,而每个重大选择的锁定时间极长(创业十年、感情五年以上、城市十年以上), 所以决策的默认值是「否」——只有非常确定时才说「是」。 三条可执行启发式: ① 决策门:无法决定就答否;做利弊电子表格本身就是「不够确定」的信号,忘掉它; ② 三个重大决定:住哪/和谁在一起/做什么决定人生轨迹,值得花一两年认真决定,同时对所有不重要的事说不; ③ 短期痛苦原则:两个均等选项之间,选短期更痛苦的那条——按复利逻辑它对应长期收益,而大脑本能回避短期痛苦。 这套启发式专治「过度纠结」,不是用来分析日常小选择。

A1 — 书中的应用 (Past Application)

案例 1: 读不懂的书与练酸痛的肌肉

  • 问题: 大脑回避短期痛苦(读难书/健身)
  • 方法论的使用: 把短期痛苦当长期收益的信号
  • 结论: 「生命中大多数收益都是来自于短期的痛苦」
  • 结果: 作者用健身/读书验证该原则并长期执行

案例 2: 冷水澡的启示

  • 问题: 每天早上面对令人逃避的冷水澡
  • 方法论的使用: 大部分痛苦来自逃避,直接走进去
  • 结论: 「一旦你进去了,你就是进去了。这不是痛苦。这只是冷。」
  • 结果: 成为每天重训该教训的习惯

A2 — 触发场景 (Future Trigger) ★

用户会在什么情境下需要这个 skill?

  1. 重大选择纠结:「要不要跳槽/买房/搬去另一个城市/合伙」
  2. 利弊表做了很久:「列了十项利弊还是拿不定主意」
  3. 机会太多:「这个也想做那个也想做,怎么选」
  4. 需要说不:「怎么拒绝一个'还行'的机会」

语言信号

  • "我纠结要不要……"
  • "这个决定该不该做"
  • "我该选哪个(两个选项都还行)"
  • "can't decide / should I take it / pros and cons"

与相邻 skill 的区分

  • 与 acceptance 的区别: 本 skill 处理「能改变的选择」;接受处理「不能改变/只能接受或离开」的处境
  • 与 judgment-training 的区别: 判断力是底层能力,本 skill 是即用启发式

E — 可执行步骤 (Execution)

  1. 判断这是不是重大决定

    • 完成标准: 是「住哪/和谁/做什么」类(锁定 ≥5 年)才算;日常选择走普通决策
  2. 跑决策门

    • 完成标准: 若无法当场决定且开始列利弊表 → 默认答「否」,除非有非常确定的新证据
  3. 两个均等选项时选短期更痛苦的路

    • 完成标准: 明确两个选项「均等」,确认其中一个短期更痛苦,选它
    • 判停条件: 若选项不等(一方明显更差),直接排除差的,不套启发式
  4. 给重大决定分配应有的时间

    • 完成标准: 对影响十年生活的决定,规划 1–2 年的调研窗口,期间对不重要的机会说不

B — 边界 (Boundary) ★

不要在以下情况使用此 skill

  • 日常琐碎选择(晚餐/穿搭/娱乐)——启发式会误伤生活
  • 对方已有明确偏好、只需要执行(先确认真实犹豫点)

作者在书中警告的失败模式

  • 用列表逃避决策: 「如果你发现你自己做了一个关于决定的电子表格……那就忘了它吧」
  • 对不重要的事说「是」: 会把时间全部占满,无法聚焦重大问题

作者的盲点 / 时代局限

  • 「答否」默认值适合机会富余者;资源稀缺环境里「否」可能让你错过唯一机会
  • 短期痛苦≠总是正确(存在纯粹的坏痛苦),需先排除「纯损害」选项

容易混淆的邻近方法论

  • hourly-rate-time: 时薪解决时间价值,本 skill 解决选择结构

相关 skills (阶段 3 定稿)

  • composes-with: judgment-training(启发式背后的能力)、hourly-rate-time(时薪作量化判据)
  • contrasts-with: acceptance(能改变 vs 只能接受)

审计信息

  • 验证通过: V1 ✓ / V2 ✓ / V3 ✓ (v05)
  • 测试通过率: 见 test-results.md
  • 蒸馏时间: 2026-08-01

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