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ab-test-analysis

Analyze A/B test results to decide whether to launch a change, extend testing, stop, or investigate further. Check sample size, statistical significance, uncertainty ranges, and effects on other important metrics, then summarize the recommendation and next steps.

한국어 요약은 준비 중입니다. 영어 요약을 표시하고 있습니다.

원문원문 설명 보기

Analyze A/B test results with statistical significance, sample size validation, confidence intervals, and ship/extend/stop recommendations. Use when evaluating experiment results, checking if a test reached significance, interpreting split test data, or deciding whether to ship a variant.

설치 방법 보기

이럴 때 유용합니다

  • Checking whether an A/B test shows a meaningful difference
  • Reviewing sample size and test duration
  • Deciding whether to launch a tested change
  • Checking for harm to revenue or page load time

포함된 파일(1)

  • SKILL.md3.5 KB

SKILL.md(원문)

설치하기 전에 에이전트에게 전달되는 지시 내용을 확인할 수 있습니다.

A/B Test Analysis

Evaluate A/B test results with statistical rigor and translate findings into clear product decisions.

Context

You are analyzing A/B test results for $ARGUMENTS.

If the user provides data files (CSV, Excel, or analytics exports), read and analyze them directly. Generate Python scripts for statistical calculations when needed.

Instructions

  1. Understand the experiment:

    • What was the hypothesis?
    • What was changed (the variant)?
    • What is the primary metric? Any guardrail metrics?
    • How long did the test run?
    • What is the traffic split?
  2. Validate the test setup:

    • Sample size: Is the sample large enough for the expected effect size?
      • Use the formula: n = (Z²α/2 × 2 × p × (1-p)) / MDE²
      • Flag if the test is underpowered (<80% power)
    • Duration: Did the test run for at least 1-2 full business cycles?
    • Randomization: Any evidence of sample ratio mismatch (SRM)?
    • Novelty/primacy effects: Was there enough time to wash out initial behavior changes?
  3. Calculate statistical significance:

    • Conversion rate for control and variant
    • Relative lift: (variant - control) / control × 100
    • p-value: Using a two-tailed z-test or chi-squared test
    • Confidence interval: 95% CI for the difference
    • Statistical significance: Is p < 0.05?
    • Practical significance: Is the lift meaningful for the business?

    If the user provides raw data, generate and run a Python script to calculate these.

  4. Check guardrail metrics:

    • Did any guardrail metrics (revenue, engagement, page load time) degrade?
    • A winning primary metric with degraded guardrails may not be a true win
  5. Interpret results:

    OutcomeRecommendation
    Significant positive lift, no guardrail issuesShip it — roll out to 100%
    Significant positive lift, guardrail concernsInvestigate — understand trade-offs before shipping
    Not significant, positive trendExtend the test — need more data or larger effect
    Not significant, flatStop the test — no meaningful difference detected
    Significant negative liftDon't ship — revert to control, analyze why
  6. Provide the analysis summary:

    ## A/B Test Results: [Test Name]
    
    **Hypothesis**: [What we expected]
    **Duration**: [X days] | **Sample**: [N control / M variant]
    
    | Metric | Control | Variant | Lift | p-value | Significant? |
    |---|---|---|---|---|---|
    | [Primary] | X% | Y% | +Z% | 0.0X | Yes/No |
    | [Guardrail] | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... |
    
    **Recommendation**: [Ship / Extend / Stop / Investigate]
    **Reasoning**: [Why]
    **Next steps**: [What to do]
    

Think step by step. Save as markdown. Generate Python scripts for calculations if raw data is provided.


Further Reading

리뷰

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